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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #576,641
  • Feb 6, 2021 1:27am Feb 6, 2021 1:27am
Quoting Moty
{image}{image}{image}
Hi Moty

I see you are selling GU because you presume it will bounce of the resistance zone, why don't you wait until confirmation of this action?.
I understand your thinking but wonder why you are take the risk of building against the big players when you have to risk possible events occurring in the weekend that may just affect your setups for Mondays profits.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #576,642
  • Feb 6, 2021 1:44am Feb 6, 2021 1:44am
Quoting Georginson
Below is TRADE IDEA FOR INTRADAY traders for next week Monday - Tuesday *Sell from 1.3775 target 1.3666 *Buy 1 from 1.3666 target 1.3800 *Buy 2 from 1.3612 target 1.3750 Note: 100 pips drawdown cannot be ruled out, so be psychologically prepared by applying modest stake at recommended levels. *If low of (1.3666/1.3610) gets attacked first on Monday/Tuesday then 1.3800 will be imminent next week *If high of 1.3800 gets attacked first by Monday/Tuesday then we will go on full scale sell to target 1.3610/1.3580, which will invalidate the potential...
Thx for the trading idea..
Could use a few idea for my buy/sell limit
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  • #576,643
  • Feb 6, 2021 2:12am Feb 6, 2021 2:12am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Moty I see you are selling GU because you presume it will bounce of the resistance zone, why don't you wait until confirmation of this action?. I understand your thinking but wonder why you are take the risk of building against the big players when you have to risk possible events occurring in the weekend that may just affect your setups for Mondays profits. Cheers
This is my Achilles heel, because the right move is to go out and wait for some break down with approval, I am always afraid to miss the move so I will stay. In any case the pound will not exceed 1.37580, perhaps in a small way for a false break
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yes yes yes
  • #576,644
  • Feb 6, 2021 3:18am Feb 6, 2021 3:18am
Quoting Moty
{quote} This is my Achilles heel, because the right move is to go out and wait for some break down with approval, I am always afraid to miss the move so I will stay. In any case the pound will not exceed 1.37580, perhaps in a small way for a false break {image}
Hi Moty

I decide to have a look at your chart to look for another way you could time your entry's better and avoid a large draw down and possible large loss if it runs further.
Maybe add volume under the MACD but look on the 1 hour chart, trade it on the H4.
You can watch just the volume levels (tick volume) on your phone if you are out, no need for a computer. Hell you could trade it on your iphone anyway (I do all the time).

On the volume indicator, add a line at 6000 units and use this as your alert system that the big players are playing there hand.
So its your timing system to consider trading your MACD setup or resistance setup.

My point is the major players shout at us all the time - WE ARE TRADING - so those volume spikes are your confirmation to act.
If you see it turning at your chosen points as well - you fix your DD problem very easily.

Or just pay no attention to this post LOL
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #576,645
  • Feb 6, 2021 3:28am Feb 6, 2021 3:28am
Talking about GBPUSD, the major players actually played their hand 24 hours earlier on Thursday night, they didn't wait for the Non Farm Employment change yesterday because they were already in.

And we should have known this.

I called this same move in the "VSA with malcolm" thread so sorry about the double post.
And price did go up and the big money is still in.

Cheers
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #576,646
  • Feb 6, 2021 3:48am Feb 6, 2021 3:48am
Hi to all!!! This is sentiment SMART MONEY COT based
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  • #576,647
  • Feb 6, 2021 4:02am Feb 6, 2021 4:02am
Daily VOlume Chart: Cable is again on .3745/.3758 RESISTENCE

At moment UP SWING has very LOW volume..... .3660 will be the key, BELOW BEARS will RUN FAST on the contrary BULLs must break resistence to RUN

Smart money have a little more decreased their LONG POSITION and SENTIMENT is NEUTRAL. Probably we will see this SIDEWAY again next week, but this is only my opinion
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  • #576,648
  • Feb 6, 2021 4:21am Feb 6, 2021 4:21am
Quoting Georginson
Below is TRADE IDEA FOR INTRADAY traders for next week Monday - Tuesday *Sell from 1.3775 target 1.3666 *Buy 1 from 1.3666 target 1.3800 *Buy 2 from 1.3612 target 1.3750 Note: 100 pips drawdown cannot be ruled out, so be psychologically prepared by applying modest stake at recommended levels. *If low of (1.3666/1.3610) gets attacked first on Monday/Tuesday then 1.3800 will be imminent next week *If high of 1.3800 gets attacked first by Monday/Tuesday then we will go on full scale sell to target 1.3610/1.3580, which will invalidate the potential...
the medium term gann plan is as follows, according to long term we make final wave 5 (and the yearly) high mid Q1 which is mid not next week but week after

til then we go down then up, cannot be the other way round else it would not be a high

so next week is down with the goal to convince all the bull market is over and get bears excited in their delusion

monday is better solid fresh highs but not too high as final high is not that far off ... short term i have monday as a dead flat day so am looking to up then down

monday is to position for the expected decline, then later in the week position for final thrust up ... Georginson's levels may be helpful in both of these trades
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #576,649
  • Feb 6, 2021 4:46am Feb 6, 2021 4:46am
Quoting gettoefl
{quote} the medium term gann plan is as follows, according to long term we make final wave 5 (and the yearly) high mid Q1 which is mid not next week but week after til then we go down then up, cannot be the other way round else it would not be a high so next week is down with the goal to convince all the bull market is over and get bears excited in their delusion monday is better solid fresh highs but not too high as final high is not that far off ... short term i have monday as a dead flat day so am looking to up then down monday is to position...
This month looks almost certain to end bearish as we have had 4 consecutive months of buying since October 2020.

Now the big question is why has it not turned bearish? The bulls have a specific level to attain before the bears can have their uninterrupted party and these levels are 1.3777 (psychological resistance) and 1.3880 area.

Now that 1.3580 zone got broken, which is seen a paused invitation of 1.33 area but can't follow through until 1.3830/1.3880 area is conquered. As I said in my previous post that the bears will need more patience before they can have their uninterrupted falling trend as this buying trend cannot continue without 600 - 800 pips correction as we had in September 2020.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #576,650
  • Edited 6:03am Feb 6, 2021 4:56am | Edited 6:03am
4th consecutive week of buying, only the 2nd time that has happened since the end of 2018/early 2019. Another sub 13week awr week @ 76% but the pip range @ 191 was at least larger than last week's 149. The pullback off the 3757 weekly hi (Monday) was halted by the strong upside reaction to Boe stuff @ 3566 (weekly lo) and this continued with more upside following disappointing U.s job numbers despite drop in Headline Un-emp rate there. In effect the early week bearishness became a false 1st breakout of the recent multi-day 3609-3759 range that was visible on the 4hr chart.

Price closed near to it's Friday Daily and weekly hi's, 3739 and 3757 resulting in bullish candle closes from Wkly, Dly and 4hr to end the week. Wkly, and Dly and 1hr are in general fractal uptrends, with the 4hr - back to ranging this time with a current upside bias.

Certainly the 3759 current uptrend hi looks vulnerable to an upside breakand any such break above would see price delve deeper into that wkly/mthly prev swing lo zone =prev supp =pot sbr to 3790 that the 1hr/4hr/dly prev sw hi =prev res =pot res, to 3759 is co-existant with. The wkly, and dly closes suggest more upside is more probable than not at some point next week.

That prev 4hr/dly prev sw hi zone to 3759 has been tested 3 times now and resulted in a bounce, not break - each @ a higher point in it...see 4hr below. You have to wonder how much more supply is left up there and whether the 2 big fundie announcements this week closed (mentioned above,) have changed the markets' short term calculations (at least) sufficient to see an upside break through it?

On the horizon and getting closer of course is the Biden Covid related $1.9trn stimulus plan. Too early to tell how this will affect markets/this market in particular if it comes into being.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #576,651
  • Feb 6, 2021 7:34am Feb 6, 2021 7:34am
Usd Index - Daily - Engulf Bearish

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----------------------------------------------------------------
Usd Index - H4 - Last Top will work as support.

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GBPUSD - M5 - Consolidation

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #576,652
  • Feb 6, 2021 8:21am Feb 6, 2021 8:21am
The points for us to pay atenttion, before to open the trades.

- The price can stop in the trend line and continue going up.

- Below the trend line have an zone of indecision, maybe another consolidation M5 in this point.

- Below the zone of indecision - consolidation M5 - we can stay sold until the price touch the last trend line M30.


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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #576,653
  • Feb 6, 2021 8:55am Feb 6, 2021 8:55am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} This month looks almost certain to end bearish as we have had 4 consecutive months of buying since October 2020. Now the big question is why has it not turned bearish? The bulls have a specific level to attain before the bears can have their uninterrupted party and these levels are 1.3777 (psychological resistance) and 1.3880 area. Now that 1.3580 zone got broken, which is seen a paused invitation of 1.33 area but can't follow through until 1.3830/1.3880 area is conquered. As I said in my previous post that the bears will need more patience...
i am agreeing, mid quarter is mid month ... it is not bearish because the cycle which commenced last Q3 is not over
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #576,654
  • Feb 6, 2021 9:08am Feb 6, 2021 9:08am
If one knows its weaknesses, its the first big step in eliminating them.

I openly admit that I am very green new to manual FX trading, just started journey in January with some 6 months background in learning the ropes. Read some good thoughts from mentors in FF, built my knowledge on technical analysis. Usually aiming only 3-4 deals per week, for 2:1 reward risk ratio, or more. Account growth has been 10% in 3 weeks so far with few SL-s hit, quite a few BE-s hit and some profits as well.

Laid down some ground rules for myself:

1) Develop right mindset and build analytical competence. It is not possible to eliminate emotions from trading as we are not robots, but its far more easier to reduce anxiety with good money management. I do not risk more than up to 2.5% of my account on a single trade.
2) My trading plan is max 1-2 entries per day aiming for 40pips at a time, mainly on GU but also on GJ, GA and UC.
3) FOMO is account killer. There will be always another opportunities to take a trade.
4) I do not overtrade or revenge trade.
5) Kill bad trades yourself before market proves you wrong.
6) Try to extract as much as possible from winning trades.
7) Be done by the end of the day or end of the week.

I don't have time to sit at screen all day, hence I will usually try to pick good entries after LO. Asian sessions PA is confusing and Frankfurt often throws in false moves.

I will take accountability from my trades and do not rely on too many indicators or complex rule based systems, which in my mind lures people into false sense of security and reduces individual accountability. I use long/short trend, some Fibos, PA, patterns, volume and get familiar with the pairs characteristics.

Trade size is individual but I believe it needs to be large enough to commit one into good money management. Its easy to develop bad MM habits with microlot trading, which lures you placing large SL-s (50+ pips is large in my view).

Trading is not a sprint, its a very long marathon.

Take care,
I


Quoting Moty
{quote} This is my Achilles heel, because the right move is to go out and wait for some break down with approval, I am always afraid to miss the move so I will stay. In any case the pound will not exceed 1.37580, perhaps in a small way for a false break {image}
  • #576,655
  • Feb 6, 2021 9:56am Feb 6, 2021 9:56am
Everything makes sense now

its all about the SW ...
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #576,656
  • Feb 6, 2021 6:59pm Feb 6, 2021 6:59pm
Quoting Roszey
Everything makes sense now its all about the SW ... {image}
That looks like the zone Roszey
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #576,657
  • Feb 6, 2021 8:32pm Feb 6, 2021 8:32pm
i just passed today all objectives of second stage from FTMO to have 100 k funding.

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Intraday only.
  • #576,658
  • Edited Feb 7, 2021 12:13pm Feb 6, 2021 8:51pm | Edited Feb 7, 2021 12:13pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} This month looks almost certain to end bearish as we have had 4 consecutive months of buying since October 2020. Now the big question is why has it not turned bearish? The bulls have a specific level to attain before the bears can have their uninterrupted party and these levels are 1.3777 (psychological resistance) and 1.3880 area. Now that 1.3580 zone got broken, which is seen a paused invitation of 1.33 area but can't follow through until 1.3830/1.3880 area is conquered. As I said in my previous post that the bears will need more patience...

Since July of 2008 (247months) we have seen 9 occasions where there have been 4 or more consecutive months of buying or selling, ie where the body of the monthly candle closes bullish or bearish. Of those 9 occasions, five saw 5 or more months of consecutive buying or selling. So assuming that this 247months to the end of Jan '21 is a representative sample, the chances of 5 or more consecutive months does indeed represent a low % of that sample - ie 31months of consecutive buying or selling across those 5 times as a % of 247 months total in the sample = 12.6%. In fact if you look at how many of those five times were 5 or more consecutive months of buying it was only one (March - July'09 inclusive) so the % comes down to 2.02%.

But, if you now ask the perhaps more pertinent question; 'Given 4 consecutive months of buying or selling already, what is the chance of a 5th,?' and using the same sample data the answer is 50%, ie there have been 8 such occasions in the sample, not including the present one (of 5mths, 6mths, 4mths, 7mths, 4mths, 4mths, 5mths, and 8mths.) If the question is 'Given 4 consecutive months of buying only already, what is the chance of a 5th ?' and based on the same data sample, the answer is 33%.

So, really it depends on what data sample you use, and the question you ask of it as to what answer you get. Similarly, your assertion that '...this buying trend cannot continue without 600 - 800 pips correction as we had in September 2020,' can I am sure be proved or disproved to whatever extent, using an historical sample (s) of data. To say 'cannot' is a definite, and there are few if any in trading.

Inclusive Data set used:

Oct'20-Jan'21 4mths bullish = present one
.....................................................
Apr'18-Aug'18 5mths bearish
May'16-Oct'16 6mths bearish
Nov'15-Feb'16 4mths bearish
Jul'14-Jan'15 7mths bearish
Jun'13-Sept'13 4mths bullish
Jan'12-Apr'12 4mths bullish
Mar'09-Jul'09 5mths bullish
Jul'08-Feb'09 8mths bearish

Re your comments as to why the pairing is still so bullish (as of Friday's close.) I would argue that traders' targets are a function of sentiment which is the real reason the pairing is still so seemingly bullish.

With regards to current sentiment, I mentioned in my post above re: whether the market has now discounted the chances of negative rates from Boe per Thursday's release and implied meaning re market reaction? Ie the economy should start to pick up in Uk as the already impressive vaccination roll out continues/gathers pace thus minimising/ negating the need for such a policy measure. The Boe seemed quite hawkish on this point. The sluggish U.s job numbers still indicate that they have a long way to go in this respect. The big unknown at this point is the effect the Biden Stimulus plan may have if it comes to pass. Yes, more $ in circulation should mean a weaker $ but in the short term at least such a 'shot in the arm' for the U.s economy might strengthen it.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #576,659
  • Feb 7, 2021 12:17am Feb 7, 2021 12:17am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Since July of 2008 (247months) we have seen 9 occasions where there have been 4 or more consecutive months of buying or selling, ie where the body of the monthly candle closes bullish or bearish. Of those 9 occasions, five saw 5 or more months of consecutive buying or selling. So assuming that this 247months to the end of Jan '21 is a representative sample, the chances of 5 or more consecutive months does indeed represent a low % of that sample - ie 31months of consecutive buying or selling across those 5 times as a % of 247 months total...
Great work you also put together here and this shows your commitment to your trading career. I only have few exceptions to the above which doesn't in anyway undermine your effort...

* June and July 2013 ended as Doji candles not obvious bullish candles
* March to July bullish months of 2009 happened during post financial crisis of 2008 which had abnormal trading ranges of 4000+ to 5000 pips which we haven't seen again except for 2016 brexit referendum and October flash crash year.

Also noteworthy that the move of 4 consecutive months of buying from January 2012 to April 2012 was 1.5235 - 1.6300 which had 1065 pips before 1000 pips decline in May 2012.

We may have to add 1065 pips to October 2020 low of 1.2818 which means 1.3883.

Should price rise to 1.3883 from this current February low of 1.3563 then the monthly range will become 320 pips with possible additional 130 - 300 more pips to break either of these two tentative levels, since the expected range for February is between 450 - 620 pips.

In summary, the farther price distances itself from 1.3563 the more imminent 1.3883 becomes. I have started building my short positions from 1.37 - 1.3850 area ahead of a big anticipated correction to 1.33 - 1.30 area in days - week ahead due to the fact that this bullish run can't continue for too long from here.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #576,660
  • Feb 7, 2021 1:23am Feb 7, 2021 1:23am
Quoting navk
i just passed today all objectives of second stage from FTMO to have 100 k funding. {image}
Congrat.!!!!

You certainly are a Master of your own.

Keep it up
Le$$ I$ More
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