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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #576,621
  • Feb 5, 2021 2:28pm Feb 5, 2021 2:28pm
Now it’s time for GU to get to 1.4
  • #576,622
  • Feb 5, 2021 2:28pm Feb 5, 2021 2:28pm
See here how my trend indicator picks up the swings (designed and coded myself) but mainly i rely on visually checking the swings the indicator just makes it a bit faster when working with multiple pairs.


On the daily the main swing is up
4H we see the corrections
1H we see the continuation and minor swings which are the dips once the trend indi has crossed

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Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #576,623
  • Feb 5, 2021 2:35pm Feb 5, 2021 2:35pm
Quoting babayaga
{quote} thank you for your kind attention,.. excuse me, are you chauvinist, btw .., because I am Russian (and you only wrote: "USA Oil companies Bankrupt from low price..." that's it, nothing else you can say about American's part of...) anyway, would you be so kind to tell me about the beginning of all this story? I put the arrows for you to understand what I am talking about Thank you have a nice weekend {image} {image}
Hello,

I live in USA, especially in Texas, home of big oil companies. I speak from a macro view of the market. See, the USA Oil companies needs prices above $33/per barrel to make money. On thing I know about Oil companies in Texas, they hire too many employees when oil is high and only save 3% profit when they were making record profit. When oil drop, they layoff like crazy and lobby Congress for help. Well, those CEO's making 10-20 million a year have no clue how to manage those companies when tsunami of bad business cycle hits. Many of those oil giants over-leverage their assets for future projects and never thought about do we have enough money to weather bad cycles. USA Oil companies got caught with their pants down and got slaughtered. Russia and Middle East were playing, 'Who pockets are deeper" stance on oil prices. The first arrows represent OPEC tried to make them cut production and Russia and Middle East said screw you OPEC for weeks. Prices started ranging as politicians knew the storm was coming then, BOOM! All out oil war with Russia and Middle East. This was the tell-tell who controls the market, those two countries. Nothing personal just facts. They played possum for weeks to see who has the bigger pockets then price per barrel hit 0. Second arrow, now, both countries not making money. Then start talking to repair their duopoly control of oil, run price back up. I think they will continue running price higher as the silent bull run while everyone else attention are focused on crypto, Covid-19, and monetary policy support.
  • #576,624
  • Feb 5, 2021 2:40pm Feb 5, 2021 2:40pm
My two cents:
1. Many retailers' problem are caused by their clever mind, trying to be smarter than the market, trying to predict the trend, trying to catch the train in the wrong direction, trying to blow account quickly, other words, they want to dictate the market.
2. Truth is that, main part will lose money, no matter what & how the skill they got or learn from their experience, main part will lose money. Trend will only happens when THE MARKET trapped enough dumb money.
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #576,625
  • Feb 5, 2021 2:59pm Feb 5, 2021 2:59pm
Quoting wiserltz
My two cents: 1. Many retailers' problem are caused by their clever mind, trying to be smarter than the market, trying to predict the trend, trying to catch the train in the wrong direction, trying to blow account quickly, other words, they want to dictate the market. 2. Truth is that, main part will lose money, no matter what & how the skill they got or learn from their experience, main part will lose money. Trend will only happens when THE MARKET trapped enough dumb money.

I have to categorically disagree with you about the trend only happening when the market has trapped enough dumb money , this is very wrong statement that could set a lot of traders on the wrong foot if it were to be believed.

The skill is knowing what kind of trend you are trading corrective or impulsive and understanding the overall structure of the markets in context with minor and major swings and multiple timeframes.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #576,626
  • Feb 5, 2021 3:11pm Feb 5, 2021 3:11pm
Quoting aggieman01
{quote} Hello, I live in USA, especially in Texas, home of big oil companies. I speak from a macro view of the market. See, the USA Oil companies needs prices above $33/per barrel to make money. On thing I know about Oil companies in Texas, they hire too many employees when oil is high and only save 3% profit when they were making record profit. When oil drop, they layoff like crazy and lobby Congress for help. Well, those CEO's making 10-20 million a year have no clue how to manage those companies when tsunami of bad business cycle hits. Many of...
I don't want to agree or disagree both you and babayaga.
But I want to bring in another view that green energy and other alternative sources are the future. There are lots of avenues and investment around it. There are some great targets set for the next decade. Even from the environment point of view, the targets are set and bound by many countries are aggressive.
So from a macro-view I see that the Oil prices going down in the future.
My observation may be wrong but intent correct. Stay calm!
  • #576,627
  • Feb 5, 2021 3:17pm Feb 5, 2021 3:17pm
Hi,

Apologize for a potentially very dumb question, but the Trend indicator looks very much like slow/fast MA plotted on top of each other, or is it something else?

Thanks,
I

Quoting pipfarm
See here how my trend indicator picks up the swings (designed and coded myself) but mainly i rely on visually checking the swings the indicator just makes it a bit faster when working with multiple pairs. On the daily the main swing is up 4H we see the corrections 1H we see the continuation and minor swings which are the dips once the trend indi has crossed {image} {image} {image}
  • #576,628
  • Edited 3:37pm Feb 5, 2021 3:22pm | Edited 3:37pm
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} I have to categorically disagree with you about the trend only happening when the market has trapped enough dumb money , this is very wrong statement that could set a lot of traders on the wrong foot if it were to be believed. The skill is knowing what kind of trend you are trading corrective or impulsive and understanding the overall structure of the markets in context with minor and major swings and multiple timeframes.
Surely you're right, things depends on the size of prey, hunter, yourself, and the context, I mean, dishes type, bait or feast
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #576,629
  • Feb 5, 2021 3:23pm Feb 5, 2021 3:23pm
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} I have to categorically disagree with you about the trend only happening when the market has trapped enough dumb money , this is very wrong statement that could set a lot of traders on the wrong foot if it were to be believed. The skill is knowing what kind of trend you are trading corrective or impulsive and understanding the overall structure of the markets in context with minor and major swings and multiple timeframes.
hey pipfarm..I second you.
As a beginner, if I start believing that the market is corrupt, then I will lose my interest in trading. Not only me, but many and many many in generations to come. Had this happened just few generations before then we all would have been not trading today.

Btw, I could earn this week a bit so please take it as my 5 cents on this. And no hard feelings for wiserltz as well.

Nonetheless I wish you both and all others a nice weekend. I really find this forum a valuable one.
See you soon.
My observation may be wrong but intent correct. Stay calm!
  • #576,630
  • Feb 5, 2021 3:31pm Feb 5, 2021 3:31pm
Quoting parshal
{quote} hey pipfarm..I second you. As a beginner, if I start believing that the market is corrupt, then I will lose my interest in trading. Not only me, but many and many many in generations to come. Had this happened just few generations before then we all would have been not trading today. Btw, I could earn this week a bit so please take it as my 5 cents on this. And no hard feelings for wiserltz as well. Nonetheless I wish you both and all others a nice weekend. I really find this forum a valuable one. See you soon.
I didn't mean corrupt, unlike stock market, forex zero-sum game
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #576,631
  • Feb 5, 2021 3:38pm Feb 5, 2021 3:38pm
Quoting parshal
{quote} I don't want to agree or disagree both you and babayaga. But I want to bring in another view that green energy and other alternative sources are the future. There are lots of avenues and investment around it. There are some great targets set for the next decade. Even from the environment point of view, the targets are set and bound by many countries are aggressive. So from a macro-view I see that the Oil prices going down in the future.
I understand where you coming from. I like different view points. However, show me a chart of green energy then we can make a comparison to oil. Who are the players for green energy? For oil, I know the players, there's a chart, I understand their GDP surrounding oil. Russia and Middle East GDP operate off oil. Those two juggernauts could care less about green energy. From a environmental standpoint, I'm all for green energy. From a trading standpoint, oil is king of charts. Those two countries will protect oil prices for generations to come...I'm just saying...
  • #576,632
  • Edited 4:01pm Feb 5, 2021 3:41pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting Ilvez
Hi, Apologize for a potentially very dumb question, but the Trend indicator looks very much like slow/fast MA plotted on top of each other, or is it something else? Thanks, I {quote}

If only it were that simple,

The indicator is calculating minor swings which when summed together form the larger degree swings as well as impulse swings, the output is represented by the two lines and is for use with multiple timeframes.

Main difference is moving averages as you probably know plot the average price over a certain amount of periods , whereas the trend indicator is plotting the sum of minor swings.

Btw , its not predicting anything as i do not believe in such nonsense, it is as all indicators do showing what has happened already in the markets but certain things repeat and that along with a good knowledge of price action is where the edge lays.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #576,633
  • Feb 5, 2021 3:44pm Feb 5, 2021 3:44pm
In the period within the rectangle Asset Managers started to close long positions and selling, Leveraged Funds opened positions on both side (they are in battle with themselves).
In one of my analysis we may see 1.4080 at the FOMC, on 17th Feb

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  • #576,634
  • Feb 5, 2021 4:15pm Feb 5, 2021 4:15pm
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} If only it were that simple, The indicator is calculating minor swings which when summed together form the larger degree swings as well as impulse swings, the output is represented by the two lines and is for use with multiple timeframes. Main difference is moving averages as you probably know plot the average price over a certain amount of periods , whereas the trend indicator is plotting the sum of minor swings. Btw , its not predicting anything as i do not believe in such nonsense, it is as all indicators do showing what has happened...

The sum of swings is a key element in market structure and i believe it is how elliott in particular and dow formulated their theories of market behaviour of which i use some of the basic principles.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #576,635
  • Feb 5, 2021 5:14pm Feb 5, 2021 5:14pm
Quoting aggieman01
{quote} Hello, I live in USA, especially in Texas, home of big oil companies. I speak from a macro view of the market. See, the USA Oil companies needs prices above $33/per barrel to make money. On thing I know about Oil companies in Texas, they hire too many employees when oil is high and only save 3% profit when they were making record profit. When oil drop, they layoff like crazy and lobby Congress for help. Well, those CEO's making 10-20 million a year have no clue how to manage those companies when tsunami of bad business cycle hits. Many of...
hi,
you haven't answered my questions..,
doesn't matter

I would like to add few things and I will not continue on this subject, simply because it's "CABLE UPDATE" forum

my crude oil chart, first arrow - 01.06.2014 PH 107.640, second arrow - 01.02.2016 PL 26.030..,
I was not talking about Covid-19

excuse me, but your post has nothing to do with " ...a macro view of the market" (especially crude oil), it is, may I call it " a view from Texas"
you are or too young or too naive (excuse me)..,

you can easily find some material if you are interested in...

to finish ( I am talking about 2014, a little piece of information, from an article about falling oil prices, there are many of them ):

"The initial drop in oil prices from mid-2014 to early 2015 was primarily driven by supply factors, including booming U.S. oil production, receding geopolitical concerns, and shifting OPEC policies."

have a nice weekend
dolce vita
  • #576,636
  • Feb 5, 2021 5:31pm Feb 5, 2021 5:31pm
Quoting babayaga
{quote} hi, you haven't answered my questions.., doesn't matter I would like to add few things and I will not continue on this subject, simply because it's "CABLE UPDATE" forum my crude oil chart, first arrow - 01.06.2014 PH 107.640, second arrow - 01.02.2016 PL 26.030.., I was not talking about Covid-19 excuse me, but your post has nothing to do with " ...a macro view of the market" (especially crude oil), it is, may I call it " a view from Texas" you are or too young or too naive (excuse me).., you can easily find some material if you are interested...

Babayaga,

Ah, yes...I was referring to macro view of oil from 2020 to present on oil. My explanation was incorrect for what you are arrows on.. You were asking prior where I see your arrows from earlier years. Chat with me privately since this thread about GBPUSD. Ill need to write a thesis email so you can understand my point of view. However, I made money off that drop in 2020 so I guess my understanding was spot on...Take care
  • #576,637
  • Feb 5, 2021 9:28pm Feb 5, 2021 9:28pm
Below is TRADE IDEA FOR INTRADAY traders for next week Monday - Tuesday

*Sell from 1.3775 target 1.3666
*Buy 1 from 1.3666 target 1.3800
*Buy 2 from 1.3612 target 1.3750

Note: 100 pips drawdown cannot be ruled out, so be psychologically prepared by applying modest stake at recommended levels.

*If low of (1.3666/1.3610) gets attacked first on Monday/Tuesday then 1.3800 will be imminent next week

*If high of 1.3800 gets attacked first by Monday/Tuesday then we will go on full scale sell to target 1.3610/1.3580, which will invalidate the potential buy @ 1.3666/1.3610 area.

I hope this is helpful, please trade with utmost caution and discretion.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #576,638
  • Feb 6, 2021 12:57am Feb 6, 2021 12:57am
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yes yes yes
  • #576,639
  • Feb 6, 2021 1:04am Feb 6, 2021 1:04am
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yes yes yes
  • #576,640
  • Feb 6, 2021 1:16am Feb 6, 2021 1:16am
Quoting Moty
{image}
Hi Moty,
you are doing such a great job! I made a mistake at 1.3566, didn't closed my sell positions and u were almost the only one who see the big bounce from there.
Again, nice job!
Multiple Position Trader
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