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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #575,281
  • Jan 30, 2021 7:25am Jan 30, 2021 7:25am
COT ANALYSYS:

SMART MONEY HAVE INCREASED SHORT POSITION ON: GBP, AUD, NZD, JPY

SMART MONEY HAVE INCREASED LONG POSITION ON: EUR, CHF, CAD

So i'm think WEAKNESS on CABLE NEXT WEAK with LOW < FRIDAY CLOSED

Have a nice weekend & stay safe
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  • #575,282
  • Jan 30, 2021 7:54am Jan 30, 2021 7:54am
Quoting pipprincess
{quote} There's a useful reference table to be made out of this comment, imo. Lately I rarely trade GBP/JPY because the 'boring' pairs are more consistently predictable/profitable (in my experience). But when i did I used to always have USD/JPY chart open on a longer TF to give an idea if it was worth it or if I'd get whipsawed out because both sides of the cross are weak/strong. It can NEVER be blamed on anyone on an internet forum but I think newer traders quickly absorb all the bigging up and formidable nicknames of GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD etc that...
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  • #575,283
  • Jan 30, 2021 8:33am Jan 30, 2021 8:33am
Quoting crow
{quote} if GBPUSD=short & USDJPY=short signals -> GBPJPY=2,5*short signals
This!
  • #575,284
  • Jan 30, 2021 8:45am Jan 30, 2021 8:45am
Quoting pipprincess
{quote} This!
Lewis Carroll math
  • #575,285
  • Jan 30, 2021 11:04am Jan 30, 2021 11:04am
Quoting crow
{quote} {image}
Crow, please could you kindly share your arrow indicator. THANKS
  • #575,286
  • Jan 30, 2021 1:08pm Jan 30, 2021 1:08pm
Quoting crow
{image}
i need more LINES!!!1111
give more lines
omfg
facepalm
  • #575,287
  • Edited 5:33pm Jan 30, 2021 3:09pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting Moty
{image}{image}{image}
I think is early yet for to sell the gold, Friday showed an rejection, but the price still is above the support.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #575,288
  • Edited 6:31pm Jan 30, 2021 3:59pm | Edited 6:31pm
... what is interesting and it is shown on the weekly below is how price has moved since that 2675 lo (a HL on the weekly chart in it's general fractal uptrend.) Look at the spurt up from 1410-2648, then 2074-2813, then the 2252-3482 move - all quite 'explosive,' but since 2675 price has moved up in a small/tight channel.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the monthly t/f we have a bullish candle close (or is it an 'imperfect' hanging man?) You can see how price sold down from the open to the prev sw hi x 2 zone = prev res = pot rbs that indeed acted as res becomes supp and saw price move up to the 3759 hi of the mth/year so far..at that 78.6% fib 4376-1410 / that prev sw lo = prev supp = pot sbr zone that started @ 3711. This chart suggests more upside is likely unless of course this mth's candle is some kind of hanging man candle?

This said, there have now been 4 consecutive bullish bodied candles on this monthly t/f! The last time that happened was June-Sept of 2013 inclusive and last time there were 4 or more before that was the year 2009, (5,) 4 again in 2004 and 6 in 2003. These stats suggest that a 5th consecutive bullish bodied candle this time is not the most probable outcome. Possible? - yes, probable? no.
Monthly is below.
-------------------------
This site is net long, see below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #575,289
  • Jan 30, 2021 8:11pm Jan 30, 2021 8:11pm
https://charts.mql5.com/27/617/gbpusd-m1-tw-corp-2.png

the VWAP on the 1min chart seem to work well on this pair. short term binary options seen to be the best bet in the way of trading it. after determining the london sessions bias from the previous days price action, the vwap does a great job in locating the quarter level of sell or buy once the asia market makers get in the game (9:30 pm). waiting until after the VWAP brake and quarter level interaction proves to be pretty safe entry for easy trade for the london session. very clean defined risk. haven't mstered the new york session yet though but working on it. but honestly the heavy discounts given when price retraces to VWAP, trading the new york session really isnt necessay in my opinion. just sharing. enjoy your weekend guys
"TIME AND PRICE IS ALL THERE IS"
  • #575,290
  • Jan 31, 2021 1:13am Jan 31, 2021 1:13am
[quote=Headland;13386367]... Look at the spurt up from 1410-2648, then 2074-2813, then the 2252-3482 move - all quite 'explosive,' but since 2675 price has moved up in a small/tight channel.

I think "the spurt up from 1410-2648, then 2074-2813, then the 2252-3482 move - all quite 'explosive,'" are nothing compared to the 2 week dump mid March prior, she has taken 19weeks to fade that dump, and site sentiment is worthless, other than that nice assessment, 3700 is still in play weekly & monthly wicks only above and 3700 goes right back to 2000 (year) so same ol same ol bulls attacking bears defending, contrary to many on thread, I am bear and hear because they are hear too, 3700 needs to be sorted before continuation or reversal is decided?? possibly next weeks candle will clarify with body above 1 3700, HH HL continuation north or LH LL small body even doji etc, would also print H&S @ resistance, reversal ???
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #575,291
  • Jan 31, 2021 3:11am Jan 31, 2021 3:11am
FEBRUARY 2021 UPDATE
Last 6 Years February
2015 February High 1.5551 - 1.4988 Low = 563 pips range
2016 February High 1.4667 - 1.3835 Low = 832 pips range
2017 February High 1.2706 - 1.2346 Low = 360 pips range
2018 February High 1.4277 - 1.3756 Low = 521 pips range
2019 February High 1.3350 - 1.2772 Low = 578 pips range
2020 February High 1.3184 - 1.2725 Low = 459 pips range

Minimum Range = 360pips
Average Range = 600 pips
Maximum Range = 832 pips

Most Repeated and Likely Range = 450 = 600 Pips
Maximum possible February Range = 810 pips

Months that precede low range months
April 2019 High 1.3196 - 1.2865 Low = 330 pips
May 2019 High 1.3176 - 1.2558 Low = 618 pips

August 2019 High 1.2309 - 1.2014 Low = 295 pips
September 2019 High 1.2581 - 1.1958 Low = 623 pips

June 2019 High 1.2783 - 1.2505 Low = 278 pips
July 2019 High 1.2705 - 1.2119 Low = 586 pips

January 2020 High 1.3230 - 1.2954 Low = 276 pips
February 2020 High 1.3184 - 1.2725 Low = 459 pips

January 2021 High 1.3758 - 1.3450 Low = 308 pips
February 2021 High ?????? - ?????? Low = ??? ????

February 2021 VERDICT AND BIAS
* Expected February 2021 range is 450 - 620 pips
* Expected February 2021 HIGH is 1.3800 1.3880
* Expected February 2021 LOW is 1.3400 - 1.3280

Here is my research excerpt for February 2021, I may be wrong but that's what I see.

Trade with utmost caution and good luck to us all.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #575,292
  • Edited 5:38am Jan 31, 2021 5:25am | Edited 5:38am
GBPUSD H4 weekly overview (1st Feb - 5th Feb 2021)
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My observation may be wrong but intent correct. Stay calm!
  • #575,293
  • Jan 31, 2021 5:54am Jan 31, 2021 5:54am
Nice chart but traditionally rising wedge lower TL can be hardly called as "strong demand zone". Buyers are gradually getting less and less interested in pushing the price up, until they completely exhaust the demand and then breakout down happens.

Take care,
I

Quoting parshal
GBPUSD H4 weekly overview (1st Feb - 5th Feb 2021) {image} {image}
  • #575,294
  • Jan 31, 2021 6:25am Jan 31, 2021 6:25am
Quoting palpite
{quote} I think is early yet for to sell the gold, Friday showed an rejection, but the price still is above the support.
there is a strong ressistence at 1875
look at last daily candle , i will sell it , if it breaks its low 1839
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yes yes yes
  • #575,295
  • Jan 31, 2021 6:34am Jan 31, 2021 6:34am
Quoting Ilvez
Nice chart but traditionally rising wedge lower TL can be hardly called as "strong demand zone". Buyers are gradually getting less and less interested in pushing the price up, until they completely exhaust the demand and then breakout down happens. Take care, I {quote}
Nice to see your comments.
But I also see HLs at the TL signifying buyers getting strong.
My observation may be wrong but intent correct. Stay calm!
  • #575,296
  • Jan 31, 2021 8:10am Jan 31, 2021 8:10am
Quoting Moty
{quote} there is a strong ressistence at 1875 look at last daily candle , i will sell it , if it breaks its low 1839 {image} {image}
I agree with you moty, but the price not crossed the support yet and maybe the price can do another movement bullish. I'll wait more, wathever what happen i can sell below or who knows above in a better point of the resistence.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #575,297
  • Jan 31, 2021 8:12am Jan 31, 2021 8:12am
Quoting parshal
{quote} Nice to see your comments. But I also see HLs at the TL signifying buyers getting strong.
Hard to imagine a rising wedge w/o a HL and HH.

Quote
An upward price spiral bounded by two
intersecting, up-sloping trend lines
Air force
  • #575,298
  • Jan 31, 2021 8:18am Jan 31, 2021 8:18am
Quoting Moty
{quote} there is a strong ressistence at 1875 look at last daily candle , i will sell it , if it breaks its low 1839 {image} {image}
Look how danger is this point. And that breakout above the trend line. Something is wrong for me.

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #575,299
  • Jan 31, 2021 8:51am Jan 31, 2021 8:51am
Quoting palpite
{quote} Look how danger is this point. And that breakout above the trend line. Something is wrong for me. {image}
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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #575,300
  • Jan 31, 2021 8:57am Jan 31, 2021 8:57am
Quoting helioss
COT ANALYSYS: SMART MONEY HAVE INCREASED SHORT POSITION ON: GBP, AUD, NZD, JPY SMART MONEY HAVE INCREASED LONG POSITION ON: EUR, CHF, CAD So i'm think WEAKNESS on CABLE NEXT WEAK with LOW < FRIDAY CLOSED Have a nice weekend & stay safe {image}
Also Volumes on Daily show how BULL are weak, Last LONG swings very low volume on the contrary SHORT Legs High ones

are coming
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