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USD/JPY Discussion

Quoting COGSx86
The power of the FED continues, with all this money printed, Im thinking 1987 all over again for the DOW. Each time at the boundaries price broke out from the flag with a fake out then a retrace, we are seeing the samething. The FED wants the USD to get stronger, The arrows are every time Powell Spoke and 2-3 days later the market corrects itself. {image}
So good to see you on this thread after a while - I've learned so much from you Master Yoda
If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} So good to see you on this thread after a while - I've learned so much from you Master Yoda
Thank You for that, Warren.

We will continue to grow and learn these markets on are way to become very wealthy, right?

My mind with centrals banks going on full throttle to support the markets: From simple national economic issues countries will want to restrict travel or at least international trade. Which we are seeing. Then people will start just using digital currency for international trade. We will then see a decrease in volatility within the currency world, because of this the trading world is gonna become a lot more forgiving. It already has. The central banks want people to have money and spend it. They realized all the smart people trade. Phds, Mathmaticians etc. They want these people to become rich. Just look at USDJPY all moves greator then 1500 points were well telegraphed to the markets, especially with Powell/ 3 Month Treasury Bonds. They support the markets.


they want everyone to make money and they have to support the system and the system allows for it, as all the money disappears with entropy (interest rates)
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} ...We will then see a decrease in volatility within the currency world, because of this the trading world is gonna become a lot more forgiving...
So are traders less likely to get whipsawed in the FX market moving forward, Is now the easiest time to trade the trend more than ever?

I Honestly had a good year last year, but it didn't take a lot of skill to realize with all the Fed printing, that the USD would go down.
If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
gap down 103.790, close gap, down to 103.58 bounce? Just a game I play. Nothing in stone.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
gap down 103.790, close gap, down to 103.58 bounce? Just a game I play. Nothing in stone.
One thing I love about the sunday trade. Whatever the Asian market does, the London open repeats most times. Looks like back to just below today's high.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
I think today will be the last bearish day for a couple of weeks. Down to 103.85, and then on to 105 area before we get our 101.


Doesn't look like it. Still no movement. Unless it happens during Asian and Eu opens
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
short
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TP hit
Cycles real All Time Pips: 787
If we break 103.43... bohica!
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Long to 105. Hedge pending just in case they try to rip us out of this. Let's see what happens.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Cross below 103.508, then increase my short position, otherwise wait for further retracement. I am still bearish on this pair over the next several months, if not the entire year.

H4:
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
Quoting warrensapp
Cross below 103.508, then increase my short position, otherwise wait for further retracement. I am still bearish on this pair over the next several months, if not the entire year. H4: {image}

As they roll things out, I think we will run a large channel, but I think we will get 105 before we get our 101. Money makers have been screaming that the dollar is/was going to dive down for months now. Do I believe it will? Yes. But what I don't believe is that they would let us know, AND let us in for the ride. I feel like what is about to happen is we will surf the channel, then move slowly towards the top of the channel, and make some bearish fake outs on it's way to 105. Once they get that wonderful price printed, it will dive down and they will ride it down to 101 and possibly beyond before the FED slingshots us back up. Whispers of inflation are starting to creep into the narrative. This move below 104 was a stop hunt IMO. Where it decided to stop was a new area from the looks of recent charts, so they got bears excited.. Moved below a previous area of support, flipped a U turn in a new neighborhood. Genius. When things get like this I engage that trailing stop. Good luck to all, and as usual... this is pure speculation.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} As they roll things out, I think we will run a large channel, but I think we will get 105 before we get our 101. Money makers have been screaming that the dollar is/was going to dive down for months now. Do I believe it will? Yes. But what I don't believe is that they would let us know, AND let us in for the ride. I feel like what is about to happen is we will surf the channel, then move slowly towards the top of the channel, and make some bearish fake outs on it's way to 105. Once they get that wonderful price printed, it will dive down...
After this morning's reaction to flash manufacturing PMI, I tend to agree with you.
If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
Busy week ahead for the USD - FOMC meeting/press conference, Fed Funds Rate, Advance GDP, and Unemployment claims.

Looking back, the US 10yr has been trending up since Jan 12th, however UJ has been steadily continuing it's downtrend. I cannot predict what will happen next, but I believe any hawkish news from the above mentioned catalysts, combined with the uptrend already in U.S. 10-yr treasuries, could send this pair up past 104.406. We may see resistance there, or further up between 104.584 and 104.783.

Beside the bond markets, there is also major tech firm earnings this week in the U.S. stock market. If earnings miss and /ES dips, then I also expect an upward movement in UJ.

H4:

/ZN
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UJ
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
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