Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#83,521
Jan 15, 2021 7:14am Jan 15, 2021 7:14am

warrensapp
Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 328 Posts

Quoting COGSx86

Disliked

{quote} ...We will then see a decrease in volatility within the currency world, because of this the trading world is gonna become a lot more forgiving...

Ignored

So are traders less likely to get whipsawed in the FX market moving forward, Is now the easiest time to trade the trend more than ever?

I Honestly had a good year last year, but it didn't take a lot of skill to realize with all the Fed printing, that the USD would go down.

If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly

#83,522
Jan 16, 2021 3:39pm Jan 16, 2021 3:39pm

OBsayMkMoney
Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,656 Posts

gap down 103.790, close gap, down to 103.58 bounce? Just a game I play. Nothing in stone.

Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses

#83,523
Jan 18, 2021 12:15am Jan 18, 2021 12:15am

OBsayMkMoney
Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,656 Posts

Quoting OBsayMkMoney

Disliked

gap down 103.790, close gap, down to 103.58 bounce? Just a game I play. Nothing in stone.

Ignored

One thing I love about the sunday trade. Whatever the Asian market does, the London open repeats most times. Looks like back to just below today's high.

Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses

#83,524
Edited 12:48pm Jan 19, 2021 8:45am | Edited 12:48pm

OBsayMkMoney
Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,656 Posts

I think today will be the last bearish day for a couple of weeks. Down to 103.85, and then on to 105 area before we get our 101.

Doesn't look like it. Still no movement. Unless it happens during Asian and Eu opens

Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses

#83,525
Edited 9:14am Jan 20, 2021 8:46am | Edited 9:14am

danizani95
| Joined Jul 2016 | Status: Trader | 263 Posts

short

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TP hit

#83,526
Jan 20, 2021 9:52am Jan 20, 2021 9:52am

OBsayMkMoney
Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,656 Posts

If we break 103.43... bohica!

Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses

#83,527
Jan 20, 2021 11:28am Jan 20, 2021 11:28am

OBsayMkMoney
Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,656 Posts

Long to 105. Hedge pending just in case they try to rip us out of this. Let's see what happens.

Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses

#83,528
Jan 21, 2021 8:43pm Jan 21, 2021 8:43pm

warrensapp
Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 328 Posts

Cross below 103.508, then increase my short position, otherwise wait for further retracement. I am still bearish on this pair over the next several months, if not the entire year.

H4:

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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly

#83,529
Jan 22, 2021 8:31am Jan 22, 2021 8:31am

OBsayMkMoney
Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Trader | 2,656 Posts

Quoting warrensapp

Disliked

Cross below 103.508, then increase my short position, otherwise wait for further retracement. I am still bearish on this pair over the next several months, if not the entire year. H4: {image}

Ignored

As they roll things out, I think we will run a large channel, but I think we will get 105 before we get our 101. Money makers have been screaming that the dollar is/was going to dive down for months now. Do I believe it will? Yes. But what I don't believe is that they would let us know, AND let us in for the ride. I feel like what is about to happen is we will surf the channel, then move slowly towards the top of the channel, and make some bearish fake outs on it's way to 105. Once they get that wonderful price printed, it will dive down and they will ride it down to 101 and possibly beyond before the FED slingshots us back up. Whispers of inflation are starting to creep into the narrative. This move below 104 was a stop hunt IMO. Where it decided to stop was a new area from the looks of recent charts, so they got bears excited.. Moved below a previous area of support, flipped a U turn in a new neighborhood. Genius. When things get like this I engage that trailing stop. Good luck to all, and as usual... this is pure speculation.

Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses

#83,530
Jan 22, 2021 9:15am Jan 22, 2021 9:15am

warrensapp
Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 328 Posts

Quoting OBsayMkMoney

Disliked

{quote} As they roll things out, I think we will run a large channel, but I think we will get 105 before we get our 101. Money makers have been screaming that the dollar is/was going to dive down for months now. Do I believe it will? Yes. But what I don't believe is that they would let us know, AND let us in for the ride. I feel like what is about to happen is we will surf the channel, then move slowly towards the top of the channel, and make some bearish fake outs on it's way to 105. Once they get that wonderful price printed, it will dive down...

Ignored

After this morning's reaction to flash manufacturing PMI, I tend to agree with you.

If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly

#83,531
Jan 22, 2021 5:51pm Jan 22, 2021 5:51pm

warrensapp
Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 328 Posts

Busy week ahead for the USD - FOMC meeting/press conference, Fed Funds Rate, Advance GDP, and Unemployment claims.

Looking back, the US 10yr has been trending up since Jan 12th, however UJ has been steadily continuing it's downtrend. I cannot predict what will happen next, but I believe any hawkish news from the above mentioned catalysts, combined with the uptrend already in U.S. 10-yr treasuries, could send this pair up past 104.406. We may see resistance there, or further up between 104.584 and 104.783.

Beside the bond markets, there is also major tech firm earnings this week in the U.S. stock market. If earnings miss and /ES dips, then I also expect an upward movement in UJ.

H4:

/ZN

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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly

#83,532
Jan 26, 2021 6:52am Jan 26, 2021 6:52am

andoseg2
Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Swing trader using Market Cycles | 2,152 Posts

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.

#83,533
Edited 9:03am Jan 27, 2021 8:50am | Edited 9:03am

fontu
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,415 Posts

waiting for bull action . signal 104.392 breaks up & hold .for initially 112.220 +. target take care

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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++

#83,534
Jan 27, 2021 1:13pm Jan 27, 2021 1:13pm

warrensapp
Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 328 Posts

Fed Rates unchanged. RSI rising, near 66%. Price is testing resistance at 104.203.

H4:

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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly

#83,535
Jan 28, 2021 7:59am Jan 28, 2021 7:59am

warrensapp
Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 328 Posts

Advanced GDP missed forecasts this morning and 10yr treasury futures are starting to cool off. Hopefully the downturn continues for those of us bearish on UJ.

GDP:

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