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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #572,361
  • Jan 16, 2021 2:11am Jan 16, 2021 2:11am
i will put tide sl at the market open
if it retrace up , i will earn 30 pips at least
if it goes down to 1.35400 area , i will loss 18 pips , and i will take long from there and earn 80 pips
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yes yes yes
  • #572,362
  • Jan 16, 2021 3:34am Jan 16, 2021 3:34am
Quoting cat
A humble word of warning to all traders. I have been a member of forex factory for 11 years, and have seen many many traders come and go. A little bit of success and the novice trader begins to believe he/she is invincible. They begin to increase their leverage, believing that nothing can go wrong. They are right, others are wrong. I saw this again on this thread yesterday. I mention no names, but a red diamond trader has gone from a healthy looking net gain, to massively in the red all because of a couple of trades that were so over-leveraged that...
If we are talking about the same guy, he did the same thing at the end of March 2020 screaming short on the EURUSD then never posted again on that thread, note to all new to the forum, red diamond doesn't necessary mean they are a good trader, just means they post a lot
  • #572,363
  • Jan 16, 2021 3:45am Jan 16, 2021 3:45am
yes, good traders they do not scribble 50 times a day.
LOL.
  • #572,364
  • Jan 16, 2021 4:25am Jan 16, 2021 4:25am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} If we are talking about the same guy, he did the same thing at the end of March 2020 screaming short on the EURUSD then never posted again on that thread, note to all new to the forum, red diamond doesn't necessary mean they are a good trader, just means they post a lot
Ah.... red diamond, who post a lot when price same direction with their position ? LOL
  • #572,365
  • Jan 16, 2021 7:12am Jan 16, 2021 7:12am
Quoting Moty
i will put tide sl at the market open if it retrace up , i will earn 30 pips at least if it goes down to 1.35400 area , i will loss 18 pips , and i will take long from there and earn 80 pips {image} {image}
Not move your stop loss was a big mistake this week. Think about if not is better open only 1 trade and to work with stop loss and risk manager 1:1 or 2:1
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #572,366
  • Jan 16, 2021 7:38am Jan 16, 2021 7:38am
Quoting Moty
i will put tide sl at the market open if it retrace up , i will earn 30 pips at least if it goes down to 1.35400 area , i will loss 18 pips , and i will take long from there and earn 80 pips {image} {image}
This week i'll pay attention for the news of AUD and EUR.


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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #572,367
  • Jan 16, 2021 7:50am Jan 16, 2021 7:50am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Shahab, This can absolutely work for me with subtle bearish hints from a 4hr perspective. A retrace to your projected area and who knows?. We could have a nice move to the downside. Thanks again for your valuable input. Cheers. {image}
Cheers Leon,
I am currently entertaining two scenarios on GU. The bearish scenario is based on a possible double top formation on D1 with neckline @ 1.3450/1.350. The D1 RSI divergence and bearish engulfing candle support this scenario. The bullish scenario is based on a possible ascending triangle formation on D1. If we see a strong rejection around 1.35, the latter is more likely.
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  • #572,368
  • Jan 16, 2021 7:56am Jan 16, 2021 7:56am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Cheers Leon, I am currently entertaining two scenarios on GU. The bearish scenario is based on a possible double top formation on D1 with neckline @ 1.3450/1.350. The D1 RSI divergence and bearish engulfing candle support this scenario. The bullish scenario is based on a possible ascending triangle formation on D1. If we see a strong rejection around 1.35, the latter is more likely. {image} {image}
I have this scenario bullish here and because of this i'll wait the news.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #572,369
  • Jan 16, 2021 8:03am Jan 16, 2021 8:03am
Quoting palpite
{quote} I have this scenario bullish here and because of this i'll wait the news.
Perfect point for the big players to hunt stop loss.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #572,370
  • Jan 16, 2021 8:09am Jan 16, 2021 8:09am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Cheers Leon, I am currently entertaining two scenarios on GU. The bearish scenario is based on a possible double top formation on D1 with neckline @ 1.3450/1.350. The D1 RSI divergence and bearish engulfing candle support this scenario. The bullish scenario is based on a possible ascending triangle formation on D1. If we see a strong rejection around 1.35, the latter is more likely. {image} {image}

Both plausible scenarios indeed that you point out on that Dly t/f, although it isn't a perfectly formed asc triangle. Re that Rsi regular bearish divergence you mention; I have the same type of divergence in my 2 oscillators and in fact on that last leg up to 3711 current uptrend hi, the histogram didn't make it back above the zero horizontal axis. Also effectively a treble divergence of this type on that histogram oscillator shown. Dly below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #572,371
  • Jan 16, 2021 8:37am Jan 16, 2021 8:37am
Quoting joesherwood
im done for the week but im just gonna leave this here {image}
lol
before
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after +55 pips
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called two trades this week on thread
total +130/40 pips

price action is best way imo
simple boxes and lines
  • #572,372
  • Jan 16, 2021 8:51am Jan 16, 2021 8:51am
Meters say:

15min: SHORT SCENARIO
1H: SHORT SCENARIO
D1: LONG SCENARIO
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  • #572,373
  • Jan 16, 2021 10:10am Jan 16, 2021 10:10am
Hi,

You guys have been around the game way longer than I and my humble take on GU is that 1.3700 has been recently acting as a cemented ceiling, which has been tested multiple times during last 2 weeks. Also, forming an ascending triangle might act as a short term reversal signal, but if, when and how reversal happens remains to be seen in coming weeks.

Now GU is knocking on nearest S levels of 1.3580, next S seems to be 1.3550 and then nearest bullish SW support @ 1.3500.

I would watch the channel of 3580-3600. If it breaks convincingly out from that then it will either seek to tap at 3700 R again, or fall back on 3525-3500 S zone.

As my trading horizon is one day, then I will not make any longer assumptions.

Edit: green line is 200MA.
Edit: USD also seems to attempt to break out of the long term slump, which will affect overall sentiment.


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Take care,
I

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Cheers Leon, I am currently entertaining two scenarios on GU. The bearish scenario is based on a possible double top formation on D1 with neckline @ 1.3450/1.350. The D1 RSI divergence and bearish engulfing candle support this scenario. The bullish scenario is based on a possible ascending triangle formation on D1. If we see a strong rejection around 1.35, the latter is more likely. {image} {image}
  • #572,374
  • Jan 16, 2021 10:18am Jan 16, 2021 10:18am
Hi everyone
I think we need to study what happened so that we prepare ourselves.
The pair hit 1.37 then start rolling to 1.3450.
at that level there was explosive move to the same level again 1.37
then we rolled back exactly half way level of. 1.3575
we went up around 30 pips and came down again.
just looking at the chart you can determine where the pair is heading for Monday.
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  • #572,375
  • Jan 16, 2021 10:29am Jan 16, 2021 10:29am
Quoting zalzil123
Hi everyone I think we need to study what happened so that we prepare ourselves. The pair hit 1.37 then start rolling to 1.3450. at that level there was explosive move to the same level again 1.37 then we rolled back exactly half way level of. 1.3575 we went up around 30 pips and came down again. just looking at the chart you can determine where the pair is heading for Monday.{image}
Go on enlighten us which way will the market go on Monday, as I never try to predict the direction your prediction will be interesting to me
  • #572,376
  • Jan 16, 2021 10:46am Jan 16, 2021 10:46am
Monday only we are coming down
I mean gbus down uscd up.
i am enclosing another chart
see what you think.
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  • #572,377
  • Jan 16, 2021 10:53am Jan 16, 2021 10:53am
Quoting zalzil123
Monday only we are coming down I mean gbus down uscd up. i am enclosing another chart see what you think.{image}
Many thanks
  • #572,378
  • Edited Jan 17, 2021 12:53am Jan 16, 2021 11:45pm | Edited Jan 17, 2021 12:53am
...Was just thinking about those 2 scenarios for possible future price discovery that Shahab8b discusses in a recent post above ..looking at the monthly and weekly charts you can see that price @ the current 3711 dly/wkly uptrend hi found resistance at that rising t/line, the bottom of that prev wkly/mthly sw lo = prev supp = pot (potential) sbr - from feb 2018, and that fib cluster on the mthly. There is a repeating pattern of regular bearish divergence @ that 3711 hi on the dly and wkly. This and Friday's bearish engulfing candle on dly t/f (gmt broker timing) could suggest that a downside follow thru move on Monday is more likely than not ? Who knows? - we'll have to wait and see, and as always, - be guided by price, and what actually happens. Wkly then Mthly below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #572,379
  • Jan 17, 2021 2:39am Jan 17, 2021 2:39am
Quoting joesherwood
{quote} lol before {image}after +55 pips {image} called two trades this week on thread total +130/40 pips price action is best way imo simple boxes and lines
You gave the two-way forecast. Yeap this is very hard to predict the price when it can go up or down ))
Ahaha Try to not praise yourself dude. Just make one-way forecast next time.
  • #572,380
  • Jan 17, 2021 3:17am Jan 17, 2021 3:17am
Quoting Marbas
{quote} You gave the two-way forecast. Yeap this is very hard to predict the price when it can go up or down )) Ahaha Try to not praise yourself dude. Just make one-way forecast next time.
course I gave it two way scenario, is was at a key level of price action and either way had a bias yet, I can see your new you only joined a couple months ago I’ll let it slide... you obviously missed the 80 pip call I did a couple days before
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