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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #569,921
  • Jan 1, 2021 10:14am Jan 1, 2021 10:14am
Quoting TrTT
{quote} it still lost 39 pips. HaHahahahahaaa Are you Ok I dont think so. It Opened At 1.36140 with a High Of 1.36840 Something and Took Out My TP At 1.36820 and Closed At 1.36600 Something.
You are correct. I edited my post to indicate that it gained instead of lost.
Posting on FF and drinking while celebrating New Year don't go hand in hand
  • #569,922
  • Edited 11:35am Jan 1, 2021 10:44am | Edited 11:35am
A Happy New Year to one all all.

2275 was the year 2020's pip range and the yearly candle is posted below. This was 86% of the long term 40 year ayr, and 122% of the 10 year ayr.

Technical summary at close of year:

Mthly: Closes as a bullish hammer type candle only 23pips off it's hi - an upside follow thru from the t/f's 2nd HL at 2675 (1st @ 2074.) So, 2 x HL's and what will be a fractal H at the yearly hi - 3684 or higher when it forms, and crucially an upside break out of the descending multi year t/line / falling wedge pattern. Beginnings of a new fractal uptrend ? Too early to tell but certainly recent signs of bullishness on this t/f. It's 20/50/100 ema's however remain crossed down (as table below.)
86% of the 12 mth amr travelled in December.
Wkly: Again closes as a bullish hammer only 23 pips off it's hi, with a 6th successive HL now on this t/f....(last one @ 3188,) and the t/f remains in a general fractal uptrend with it's 20/50/100 ema's crossed up. 100% of the 13 week awr travelled this week just closed.
Dly: Closes as a bullish candle with just about equidistant upper and lower wicks. 3 consecutive HL's now (last @ 3429,) in it's general fractal uptrend with it's 20/50/100 ema's crossed up. Only 63% of 30 day adr covered on Thursday.
4Hr: Bullish close on last candle, and the t/f remains in a general fractal uptrend with it's 20/50/100 ema's all crossed up. A steep rise on this t/f from last major swing lo point @ 3429.

NB: Two further attempts to move past the 3684 hi rebuffed by sellers on Thursday and that swing hi is now a prev 1hr/4hr sw hi zone = prev res = pot res, and is the 1st upside obstacles for the bulls, as of Thursday's close.

G/L to all with your 2021 trading ambitions.
Attached Images
Trader with an Edge.
  • #569,923
  • Jan 1, 2021 10:48am Jan 1, 2021 10:48am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Situations can be predicted. I'm now stood on the fence and will (if this drops with no conviction) take calls higher up. Thats predicting developments based on what we know. Until now its looked extremely unlikely we would secure a deal... now we have. The deal is "Shit" However... the way it si being sold to the public is not shit... its very un shite... the uk may enter a state of euphoria over the next 6-12 months but, based on the fundamentals it will be a higher point to sell from. I will have to kiss goodbye to some positions... go...
Up and coming focus is what happens with COVID and the aftermath on government retreat .
Public opinion....
Focus probably back on those type of statistic in image 2021 and away from the political, we can only prey I'm right
Especially employment is worth following ,how many more zombie companies exist on government backing.

This is a comparison with $ problems & not outright performance like you would with a company for instance.
Your analysis and many others way over estimates the importance of the event anyway, as pointed out previously.
It's now proven by the chart...
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #569,924
  • Edited 11:19am Jan 1, 2021 11:08am | Edited 11:19am
It went 1 2 3 up ,but shaven has 2 meanings and thats is a major level.You have to see the open.
It's just about in range still, the trend line is not confirmed.
The main point is no huge sell off deal or no deal ,
What now we have to look even further away ?
All those people were just wrong.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #569,925
  • Jan 1, 2021 11:30am Jan 1, 2021 11:30am
...any one still advocating the £'s imminent collapse/strong downside move must be doing so from analysis/analyses other than TA because technically there is nothing to suggest this on any significant t/f 1hr - mthly. This is not to say that there won't now or higher up be a pullback of whatever size/duration. or indeed that there won't be a stronger downside move, just that there is nothing technically to suggest this presently. As we know no analysis predictive but can sometimes point to the greater probability of one outcome over another based on large sample historical precedent.

Technically speaking the 2 rejections of the prev 1hr/4hr sw hi zone to 3684 suggests a pullback (or more?) may be more probable than not (notwithstanding an opening gap,) and there is certainly a repeating pattern of bearish regular divergence in the 1hr oscillators (depending on settings.) This does not mean to say that the greater probability always plays out.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #569,926
  • Jan 1, 2021 2:08pm Jan 1, 2021 2:08pm
Quoting Bones
It went 1 2 3 up ,but shaven has 2 meanings and thats is a major level.You have to see the open. It's just about in range still, the trend line is not confirmed. The main point is no huge sell off deal or no deal , What now we have to look even further away ? All those people were just wrong. {image} {image} {image}
All what people were wrong?
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #569,927
  • Jan 1, 2021 2:17pm Jan 1, 2021 2:17pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} All what people were wrong?
Curious why he excluded himself
He campaigned for south repeatedly
  • #569,928
  • Jan 1, 2021 2:20pm Jan 1, 2021 2:20pm
All the headlines are about what a crappy deal it is.
FF shorts have started increasing again.
I like these contraindicator conditions, particularly when I see the main trend lines are broken on my chart.

US$ printers going into hyper drive again. This has never done the $ any favours.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #569,929
  • Jan 1, 2021 2:22pm Jan 1, 2021 2:22pm
Quoting ruben247
{quote} Curious why he excluded himself He campaigned for south repeatedly
I think he is referring to those who believed there would be a no deal.
But not sure on this.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #569,930
  • Jan 1, 2021 2:28pm Jan 1, 2021 2:28pm
Quoting Joyner23
Guys please I need a volunteer to assist me develop in the market since I am just a new trader with little experience
Just because your new doesn’t make you any different. You will never master the markets, we all learn constantly to the ever changing landscape of the market. If you can keep on track if the forums and learn from the informative. One thing to not do it just follow a trade because someone else has taken it, or even close one because it’s opposite to what’s the bias on here. From a full time trader like myself I think I can speak for others we don’t have the time to help someone step by step.. as slays though if you ask questions your bound to get answers

wish you luck

joe
  • #569,931
  • Jan 1, 2021 2:45pm Jan 1, 2021 2:45pm
Quoting joesherwood
{quote} Just because your new doesn’t make you any different. You will never master the markets, we all learn constantly to the ever changing landscape of the market. If you can keep on track if the forums and learn from the informative. One thing to not do it just follow a trade because someone else has taken it, or even close one because it’s opposite to what’s the bias on here. From a full time trader like myself I think I can speak for others we don’t have the time to help someone step by step.. as slays though if you ask questions your bound...
you are 20 years old and already successful ???

oh man, you are lucky, you cant even imagine....
  • #569,932
  • Jan 1, 2021 3:01pm Jan 1, 2021 3:01pm
Quoting ruben247
{quote} Curious why he excluded himself He campaigned for south repeatedly
My last chart is in the post,
I'm talking about the deal ,not being a once in 60 Year event at all ,anyone who said it
was wrong.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #569,933
  • Jan 1, 2021 3:06pm Jan 1, 2021 3:06pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} I think he is referring to those who believed there would be a no deal. But not sure on this.
No I'm not
I'm referring to those who said deal or no deal it will fall
just like I said,I don't get what's confusing ,
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #569,934
  • Jan 1, 2021 3:19pm Jan 1, 2021 3:19pm
Quoting Bones
It went 1 2 3 up ,but shaven has 2 meanings and thats is a major level.You have to see the open. It's just about in range still, the trend line is not confirmed. The main point is no huge sell off deal or no deal , What now we have to look even further away ? All those people were just wrong. {image} {image} {image}
Sorry Bones, you are right, you did say "no huge sell off deal or no deal" in your post.

I was confused because the last time we spoke, you also had a bearish outlook, so I found it odd you would now say "all those people were just wrong".
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #569,935
  • Jan 1, 2021 3:24pm Jan 1, 2021 3:24pm
Quoting ruben247
{quote} Curious why he excluded himself He campaigned for south repeatedly
Heres my $ chart I never changed anything ,Cable fell 800 pips when it bounced exactly off the line
sure the next doji was actually bullish cable ,
bearish $ ,
its all very well to call 13700 but not if it goes to 12700 first ,most won't hold that
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #569,936
  • Jan 1, 2021 3:32pm Jan 1, 2021 3:32pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} Heres my $ chart I never changed anything ,Cable fell 800 pips when it bounced exactly off the line sure the next doji was actually bullish cable , bearish $ , its all very well to call 13700 but not if it goes to 12700 first ,most won't hold that {image}
While price was at 1.27, you called for crash south
stoped posting when it didn’t
  • #569,937
  • Edited 4:22pm Jan 1, 2021 3:36pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} Sorry Bones, you are right, you did say "no huge sell off deal or no deal" in your post. I was confused because the last time we spoke, you also had a bearish outlook, so I found it odd you would now say "all those people were just wrong".
Trumps I think we already talked about this ,
my longer term view has been side ,Id have to see it open to believe it can go much more without lower.End of the day that last part of the year was tricky for candle traders imo.
But I'm very clear in all posts I don't think Brexit is further super bearish and I've provided much info to back it up
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #569,938
  • Edited 6:09pm Jan 1, 2021 3:38pm | Edited 6:09pm
Quoting ruben247
{quote} While price was at 1.27, you called for crash south stoped posting when it didn’t
Im not going to engage with a newbie no content guy ,quote me if you think it's relevant. Most likely yet another dual name enters the room.You sound like a dual name.
@127 and below I did call for lower ,not crash like you say ,but to major support
things move on
I said if it goes up it will crash ,I mean straight up .To go up from there it did a really ugly weekly dance over time thats another matter.
you need to refer to my last post-s which are way after that point in time.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #569,939
  • Jan 1, 2021 3:44pm Jan 1, 2021 3:44pm
Quoting ruben247
{quote} While price was at 1.27, you called for crash south stoped posting when it didn’t
FYI I only post ideas if I can feeling confident in them ,I've posted some corker ideas all year come back when you posted over 100 charts ill consider engaging further
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #569,940
  • Edited 4:08pm Jan 1, 2021 3:56pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} Trumps I think we already talked about this , my longer term view has been side ,Id have to see it open to believe it can go much more without lower.End of the day that last part of the year was tricky for candle traders imo. But I'm very clear in all posts I don't think Brexit is super bearish and ive provided much info to back it up {image}
I was referring to the time you were talking about the monthly candle of September as being indicative of what was to come later ( more bear).

I posted that the clear support below on the weekly chart would probably stop the fall.

To be fair, you did indicate it might retrace back up, and if it did, you would sell.

This is why I was confused when you said "all those people were wrong" when referring to brexit sell off, when it seemed clear you were wanting to sell also.

But I see now you are referring to Brexit fundamental itself, which is a different matter
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
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