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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #567,001
  • Edited 3:45pm Dec 20, 2020 2:22pm | Edited 3:45pm
i'll wait until the futures open - this is a classic long flush.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #567,002
  • Dec 20, 2020 2:24pm Dec 20, 2020 2:24pm
Right on.

Gongrats to bold ones who managed to hold their shorts at 3500 and not get stopped out at 40pip stop hunt during Friday close.

Last gap was up during the day, this one started down. So lets see how the day pans out @ LO.

Quoting Headland
... my broker just opened and price gapped to the 23.6% 2675-3624 / 61.8% downside extension of friday's pip range/dly candle - @ 3400, bottom of a prev 1hr sw lo zone = prev supp = pot supp, pretty much a 120+ pip gap - reflecting the shit show that is going on in Uk right now re new covid problems, border closings, and the ongoing stalemate with brexit trade deal talks/another missed deadline etc etc... Next downside fib is 3379 which is 50% 3134-3624. 1hr is below. Back during London session. {image}
  • #567,003
  • Dec 20, 2020 2:31pm Dec 20, 2020 2:31pm
  •  Rgkc
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Never stop learning about forex! | 419 Posts
If it close below 3406, 3286 its my way ...
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Studing..............
  • #567,004
  • Dec 20, 2020 2:40pm Dec 20, 2020 2:40pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yep, just minor supports im more interested in the usd appreciation, across the board au cable nu eu cad, swissy still laboring, my problem with my geppy trade is usd is kicking yen which is causing geppy to flutter about going nowhere :-(
USD kicked some ass over the weekend :-)
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #567,005
  • Dec 20, 2020 2:45pm Dec 20, 2020 2:45pm
Bears rejoiced at the end of the week before last just to be caught by 100+ pips gap up.

Last week, bulls here were ecstatic with plans of 1.4 in a few days, just to be hit with 100+ pips gap down.

Market makers certainly have a sense of humour. The way I see it, the gap will be partially closed (with help of US stimilus bill) before we sell heavily in European session.
  • #567,006
  • Dec 20, 2020 3:09pm Dec 20, 2020 3:09pm
Quoting LeBollinger
The 1.272/1.618 confluence on the 5/15m chart only yielded a 38.2 retracement, signaling strong bearish momentum. On the 4H I'm still eyeing 1.343 and 1.332 as partial TP's for my shorts. {image} {image}
I took partial profit at the 38.2 and will keep the other half running for the 61.8, and the remainder if it crosses that. It might not fill the gap here, since it opened below the 38.2. However, in the long run it's more profitable to follow a system and take profit at predefined levels, hence why I closed partially. (Chart: H4)
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  • #567,007
  • Dec 20, 2020 3:16pm Dec 20, 2020 3:16pm
Quoting ZTrader123
{quote} Thanks for the input! How does low liquidity mean nice moves for scalping? i am a scalper and i presume more liquidity means markets move faster? Maybe i got it switched around
No, not necessarily. I focus on trading in thin liquidity zones where price hits zero liquidity and therefore has to reverse. I would say patchy liquidity is good as price is always forced back to regions where high density of orders exists. Therefore in January, we will be dished up some beautiful spikes to trade against where low volume prevents high expansion / meaning the draw down should be low for traders who like to fade the market.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #567,008
  • Dec 20, 2020 3:20pm Dec 20, 2020 3:20pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} No, not necessarily. I focus on trading in thin liquidity zones where price hits zero liquidity and therefore has to reverse. I would say patchy liquidity is good as price is always forced back to regions where high density of orders exists. Therefore in January, we will be dished up some beautiful spikes to trade against where low volume prevents high expansion / meaning the draw down should be low for traders who like to fade the market. Cheers

Amazing response, thanks my friend

Good luck and good trades
  • #567,009
  • Dec 20, 2020 3:23pm Dec 20, 2020 3:23pm
Hey guys I'm new to this, ive only been trading for 3 months on a demo account. I trade technical but I'm trying to learn and incorporate fundamentals into it. Can anyone explain why "cable" opened today at such a lower price? I had a trade open before the weekend expecting it to go long and opened my charts to see that i've been stopped out.

Any help would be appreciated thanks!!
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  • #567,010
  • Dec 20, 2020 3:48pm Dec 20, 2020 3:48pm
Quoting ScottEPippen
Hey guys I'm new to this, ive only been trading for 3 months on a demo account. I trade technical but I'm trying to learn and incorporate fundamentals into it. Can anyone explain why "cable" opened today at such a lower price? I had a trade open before the weekend expecting it to go long and opened my charts to see that i've been stopped out. Any help would be appreciated thanks!!
reason would be fundamentals, still no progress towards a brexit deal over the weekend, I would also advice to not hold gbp trades over the weekend right now as long as there is no certainty about brexit

also it´s kinda useless to put a stop loss on a trade you hold over the weekend, if it gaps against you, no matter how many pips, you always get stopped out at the open price if your stop loss is between close and opening price, so might as well wait what happens at the opening and close manually, there are a few sites that let you see opening prices one hour earlier so you can prepare in advance
  • #567,011
  • Dec 20, 2020 3:52pm Dec 20, 2020 3:52pm
i need to see cable get over 1.3441 ish spot and stay there in the next hr or so. otherwise i'll close.

1.3454 is even better.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #567,012
  • Edited 5:54pm Dec 20, 2020 4:09pm | Edited 5:54pm
buy at bottam green fibo with lower b/b with both div daily uptrend open gap at ema support
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my 40 stop loss hit because my interpretation is wrong
  • #567,013
  • Dec 20, 2020 4:20pm Dec 20, 2020 4:20pm
Quoting Nvrmd
{quote} reason would be fundamentals, still no progress towards a brexit deal over the weekend, I would also advice to not hold gbp trades over the weekend right now as long as there is no certainty about brexit also it´s kinda useless to put a stop loss on a trade you hold over the weekend, if it gaps against you, no matter how many pips, you always get stopped out at the open price if your stop loss is between close and opening price, so might as well wait what happens at the opening and close manually, there are a few sites that let you see opening...

Oh gotcha thanks. The last update on the calendar on Gbp was about retail sales though so where do I look to stay updated on brexit?
  • #567,014
  • Dec 20, 2020 4:44pm Dec 20, 2020 4:44pm
Quoting ZTrader123
{quote} Thanks for the input! How does low liquidity mean nice moves for scalping? i am a scalper and i presume more liquidity means markets move faster? Maybe i got it switched around
Hi ZTrader

Low liquidity means price cannot expand away from core density, therefore if you trade against a breakout, it will have no follow through orders to continue so it collapses.
That’s easy money.
It’s therefore a high probability trade to fade the market during low liquidity periods but potentially a higher risk trade to consider if the volume is increasing markedly. Often I see a high volume 1 minute candle appear on a chart of about 5 times the average density- this can be the start of the next big move.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #567,015
  • Dec 20, 2020 4:45pm Dec 20, 2020 4:45pm
Quoting Nvrmd
{quote} reason would be fundamentals, still no progress towards a brexit deal over the weekend, I would also advice to not hold gbp trades over the weekend right now as long as there is no certainty about brexit also it´s kinda useless to put a stop loss on a trade you hold over the weekend, if it gaps against you, no matter how many pips, you always get stopped out at the open price if your stop loss is between close and opening price, so might as well wait what happens at the opening and close manually, there are a few sites that let you see opening...
excellent response,
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #567,016
  • Dec 20, 2020 4:49pm Dec 20, 2020 4:49pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
i need to see cable get over 1.3441 ish spot and stay there in the next hr or so. otherwise i'll close. 1.3454 is even better.
1 3400 psych is in play now, if it goes 1 3300 is next, Im assuming you are counting on gap closure, often it does happen, but not always, trsading closed gap is often better /safer than trading closure, ie where is entry and sl??
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #567,017
  • Dec 20, 2020 4:59pm Dec 20, 2020 4:59pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} 1 3400 psych is in play now, if it goes 1 3300 is next, Im assuming you are counting on gap closure, often it does happen, but not always, trsading closed gap is often better /safer than trading closure, ie where is entry and sl??
entry was from friday. i'm not assuming anything at this point. watching. i'm seeing accumulation here so i'm holding for the mo. i've already closed mentally just watching to see if i'm wrong.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #567,018
  • Dec 20, 2020 5:05pm Dec 20, 2020 5:05pm
haha..
now we have
gap up there
gap down there..

last time we laugh because gap down there never closed all the week long, now any one sure gap up there will be closed.. tricky..

FXCM show gap on their chart
OANDA chart.. theres no gap
Trade what you see, not what you think.. react and stay sharp..
  • #567,019
  • Dec 20, 2020 5:05pm Dec 20, 2020 5:05pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} entry was from friday. i'm not assuming anything at this point. watching. i'm seeing accumulation here so i'm holding for the mo. i've already closed mentally just watching to see if i'm wrong.
I feel u man ... i was lucky my tp was hit on last 5min candle on friday.... otherwise i would have margin call .... btw i opened a long just now for tp 1.34300... can see that touching this on 4h candle
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #567,020
  • Edited 6:05pm Dec 20, 2020 5:43pm | Edited 6:05pm
they will use he gap again to trap retail traders
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When price is below the band take short
Tp 10 above round number 1.33100
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yes yes yes
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