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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #564,881
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:10am Dec 10, 2020 9:10am
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yes yes yes
  • #564,882
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:10am Dec 10, 2020 9:10am
No-Deal Brexit Prediction: Additional 5% Slide To 1.2500 Realistic For Pound-Dollar Rate (exchangerates.org.uk)
Que Sera
  • #564,883
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:11am Dec 10, 2020 9:11am
Quoting montygoldy
{quote} i have my fantasy target 1.33500 ... n all long positions already set positive sl.... risk free...
Well its a valid target, the thing is cable been swinging up and down hard with any brexit news hence i prefer to take some profit and wait for a new set up
  • #564,884
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:11am Dec 10, 2020 9:11am
General consensus from analysis on a no deal is anywhere from parity on the dollar to mid 1.2's

I reckon somewhere in the middle but it could spike way lower once its all out in the open.
Que Sera
  • #564,885
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:18am Dec 10, 2020 9:18am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} GBP is currently cutting off its trading head lol See you in the 1.1's Surely it is far to early to say that the highs aren't in ? {image}

The origin of this price action is daily , what you are looking at on the hourly level is internal structure of the first daily swing down, once the daily closes below its previous low it will swing back up to make the wave 2 before the 3 down.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #564,886
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:18am Dec 10, 2020 9:18am
Any millionaires in the house you could lose £300,000 for every £1m against the dollar over the next few months.

Pretty sure savvy will be unloading their pounds.

Or is it going to 1.40

Hmmmmmm

Hard call.
Que Sera
  • #564,887
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:21am Dec 10, 2020 9:21am
Brexit phone home
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yes yes yes
  • #564,888
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:22am Dec 10, 2020 9:22am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} The origin of this price action is daily , what you are looking at on the hourly level is internal structure of the first daily swing down, once the daily closes below its previous low it will swing back up to make the wave 2 before the 3 down.
Appreciated Pipfarm

However regarding your comments:

"For those that think this down movement will continue for 1000 pips

Think what is an uptrend ie Low,High , Higher Low, Higher High, im talking about swings

So now look at daily is in an uptrend via its swings , now for the trend to change it would be High ,Low, Lower High, Lower Low swings

Currently we only have one swing down ie High and a Low so for those that think this drop will continue without a swing retest please think again"

The underlying oncoming fundamentals say that this will go much much lower, irrelevant of swings, ups and downs inbetwen, if we leave with a no deal the £ will plummet... some predicting parity with the Dollar eitherway the chart will catch up.

The chart is a lagging indicator on what some have been saying for last 2 weeks, even longer, just not here... sometimes the direction is obvious based on fundamentals, this is one of those times.
Que Sera
  • #564,889
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:24am Dec 10, 2020 9:24am
Got nice sell at VWAP/POC
Aussie bid earlier on delayed it
sorry for not posting earlier
Things looking a bit more positve - iro risk
so likely to have a pullback
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #564,890
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:33am Dec 10, 2020 9:33am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Appreciated Pipfarm However regarding your comments: "For those that think this down movement will continue for 1000 pips Think what is an uptrend ie Low,High , Higher Low, Higher High, im talking about swings So now look at daily is in an uptrend via its swings , now for the trend to change it would be High ,Low, Lower High, Lower Low swings Currently we only have one swing down ie High and a Low so for those that think this drop will continue without a swing retest please think again" The underlying oncoming fundamentals say that this...

I am not disputing the fact that no deal will cause the pound to drop lower , that is common sense, however you have to bear in mind that fundamentals alone do not cause the market to move, large volume buying and selling by banks and institutions via limit orders which the market chases will do that and the markets do not move in a straight line. ( Bank moves are business related whereas institutional moves are fundi related with a longer term view.)

Over the years i have witnessed many events that should of caused the market to move sharply in one direction immediately, only for the markets to do just the opposite to fill large volume limit orders before moving in the anticipated direction of the important event.

Even though price action may be lagging, it helps us to enter the market at a good point , entering arbitrarily because of a perceived view can be costly as you found out .
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #564,891
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:48am Dec 10, 2020 9:48am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} I am not disputing the fact that no deal will cause the pound to drop lower , that is common sense, however you have to bear in mind that fundamentals alone do not cause the market to move, large volume buying and selling by banks and institutions via limit orders which the market chases will do that and the markets do not move in a straight line. ( Bank moves are business related whereas institutional moves are fundi related with a longer term view.) Over the years i have witnessed many events that should of caused the market to move sharply...
So can closing positons for the sakes of 100 pips thinking you'll get a re entry only for news to land and it spiking against you, then chasing it, then it taking you out... I don't think we will be seeing a better entry than 472 & 466... possible some positions above 400 may get stopped ? Maybe... maybe not. not imo worth risking when 1000+ pips may be on offer.

tomorrow is the last trading day before the Sunday at which the government might pull the plug on negotiations... If you are trading based on the fundamentals you gotta ask yourself if its really worth it... i appreciate what you are saying tho, it is just a different take.

I'm looking forward to turning the computer off.
Que Sera
  • #564,892
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:55am Dec 10, 2020 9:55am
PROJECT FEAR

***BREAKING: Morgan Stanley plans to move about 100 billion euros of assets to Frankfurt, the latest Wall Street bank to shift business from the U.K.***

People getting it yet ?
Que Sera
  • #564,893
  • Dec 10, 2020 9:57am Dec 10, 2020 9:57am
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yes yes yes
  • #564,894
  • Dec 10, 2020 10:02am Dec 10, 2020 10:02am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} So can closing positons for the sakes of 100 pips thinking you'll get a re entry only for news to land and it spiking against you, then chasing it, then it taking you out... I don't think we will be seeing a better entry than 472 & 466... possible some positions above 400 may get stopped ? Maybe... maybe not. not imo worth risking when 1000+ pips may be on offer. tomorrow is the last trading day before the Sunday at which the government might pull the plug on negotiations... If you are trading based on the fundamentals you gotta ask yourself...

I will take 100 pips any day, as i know tomorrow i will get another 100 or 50 or 160 or 30 and some losses but over the long term i will be ahead and i have not had to risk too much.

Today alone i have banked half of your 1000 pip expected move just following t/a on various pairs ,so does it make sense to hope or to follow what the so called lagging price action is telling us.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #564,895
  • Dec 10, 2020 10:05am Dec 10, 2020 10:05am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} I will take 100 pips any day, as i know tomorrow i will get another 100 or 50 or 160 or 30 and some losses but over the long term i will be ahead and i have not had to risk too much. Today alone i have banked half of your 1000 pip expected move just following t/a on various pairs ,so does it make sense to hope or to follow what the so called lagging price action is telling us.
When you end up with 20+ Put options and 20+ lots for it to drop 3000 pips while sitting back and enjoying ice cold beer...

Makes perfect sense

Well done on banking those pips.
Que Sera
  • #564,896
  • Dec 10, 2020 10:09am Dec 10, 2020 10:09am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} When you end up with 20+ Put options and 20+ lots for it to drop 3000 pips while sitting back and enjoying ice cold beer... Makes perfect sense Well done on banking those pips.

You paint a nice picture, however Christmas is coming and my goose is fat enough, whereas your leaving it a bit late for your goose to get fat

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Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #564,897
  • Dec 10, 2020 10:39am Dec 10, 2020 10:39am
I SET MY TP AT 1.32660.
i was 2 times with 100 $ in profit and waited for price to go lower , and 2 times it reverse on me
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yes yes yes
  • #564,898
  • Dec 10, 2020 10:53am Dec 10, 2020 10:53am
Quoting Moty
I SET MY TP AT 1.32660. i was 2 times with 100 $ in profit and waited for price to go lower , and 2 times it reverse on me {image}
my suggestion follow the candlesticks.....close if u see a hint of reversal.... if you look at it this way u could have made 60$- 60$ two times rather than waiting for that 100$ tp....
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #564,899
  • Dec 10, 2020 11:03am Dec 10, 2020 11:03am
I've Leased some bulls today,
for a little "late in the day", action,
for a Retracement of 'Sorts'.

The Bears are having fun, pawing at it.
But we'll see as the 5min has crossed the River & the 15 min is like
a wide-open magnet now, to draw them to the Cloud.

We shall see.
Hope all is well Gang
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I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #564,900
  • Dec 10, 2020 11:09am Dec 10, 2020 11:09am
Moty....

Follwow The Bouncing Pips (a very old trhread at ForexFactory).
See my chart carefully...

ServerUang
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