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  • #221
  • Edited 6:58am Nov 23, 2020 2:08am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting captaincobra
Also Bitcoin really smells like a bubble mania for the modern era. Checkout this guys stuff for a great historical view on these booms and busts. https://investoramnesia.com/category/sunday-reads/ The articles and Sunday Reads sections are gold.
Thankyou for that link. All interesting stuff. Talks about options from a few hundred years ago - did they wanna ban them or something? What's next, ban short selling? Nobody has thought of that as the cause of all evil. Actually, there is evidence of the ancient Greeks using a form of them in trade, and there are even old testament Biblical references - I thought, hey, those dudes have a contingent option contract! And it involved a woman - what was I saying about marriage? Me geek.

Schrodinger's cat thought experiment is in another article - a concept I am familiar with but in a context mentioned on these pages - (inferring stuff from random data) merely measuring an outcome from randomness and inferring characteristics from those measurements determines the outcome itself.

I'd better just leave it there before the mud gets thicker - I think it is playing with an aspect of quantum mechanics which makes my head hurt. I'll think about it, but it reminds me of our friend Al Brooks - if you wanna find something, find it you will. Like a vaccine? How to actually measure 94% success?
  • #222
  • Nov 24, 2020 11:19pm Nov 24, 2020 11:19pm
Augh, motivation at an all-time low. I did no reading today, didn't make the video. We just got locked down (again) and I'm the teacher (again), especially since my kids are on a badly needed digital detox.

Anyway, who needs trading skills when you can just buy as much BTC and SPX as you can and let it ride? The thrill is gone. The thrill is gone away from me, y'all.

Maybe tomorrow...
  • #223
  • Nov 30, 2020 8:53am Nov 30, 2020 8:53am
Well there you go. Now how far does BTC have to go above its former high to prove that that 'level' was of no consequence?
  • #224
  • Dec 7, 2020 1:19am Dec 7, 2020 1:19am
Quoting clemmo17
Well there you go. Now how far does BTC have to go above its former high to prove that that 'level' was of no consequence?
I can't help but think that there is a logical fallacy in that statement question. Such is the nature of uncertainty.
  • #225
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:08am Dec 12, 2020 4:08am
I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying the question contains a loaded presupposition?

Maybe it does, in that it presupposes some significance to 'price levels' but I am interested in testing that significance. It would be churlish to insist that price must bounce off a level at the exact price of its past peak/trough level, so how much 'padding' should we allow in either direction before a level is falsified or confirmed?

So far it looks like that 19700 level or so is acting as 'resistance' but to be sure I'd want to see a decline as low as 15300 (for my own reasons). For some that's likely an inexcusable amount of 'waste' but for me it's only prudent.
  • #226
  • Dec 14, 2020 9:13pm Dec 14, 2020 9:13pm
Hey @clemmo17. What are you reading/planning on reading next?
  • #227
  • Dec 14, 2020 10:45pm Dec 14, 2020 10:45pm
Quoting Macallik
Hey @clemmo17. What are you reading/planning on reading next?
Good question. I got super lazy this winter - like a hibernating bear. I haven't done any extracurricular reading, and have basically been puttering around the house. I need to get back into my daily summarizing routine! I am also committed to doing some 'last-kiss' testing, and maybe a few other patterns from the Naked Forex book.

I thought Langer's Black Book of Forex Trading might be worth looking at. I also want to pursue O'Keefe's 'Making Money Like a Pro' as recommended by Lloyd.
I'm always open to suggestions.
  • #228
  • Dec 16, 2020 9:41am Dec 16, 2020 9:41am
Quoting clemmo17
Well there you go. Now how far does BTC have to go above its former high to prove that that 'level' was of no consequence?
And now BTC has made a new high. So, does this invalidate the 'price level'? Did price hit resistance (briefly, 1-2 weeks) and now has broken through it? You can see how much the allowed threshold matters in these cases.
  • #229
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:39pm Dec 16, 2020 1:39pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} Good question. I got super lazy this winter - like a hibernating bear. I haven't done any extracurricular reading, and have basically been puttering around the house. I need to get back into my daily summarizing routine! I am also committed to doing some 'last-kiss' testing, and maybe a few other patterns from the Naked Forex book. I thought Langer's Black Book of Forex Trading might be worth looking at. I also want to pursue O'Keefe's 'Making Money Like a Pro' as recommended by Lloyd. I'm always open to suggestions.
Gotcha. I've picked up my own reading after months (years?) of being unmotivated.

After reading a bunch of trading books over the past few years, my current operating theory is that, at this point, the majority of trading-related learning I will encounter will take place through backtesting and putting in hours watching charts.

Instead of tackling more trading strategy-related books, I have pivoted to reading books around personal efficiency. If I am operating at an improved level mentally, I believe that I can make even a halfway decent strategy work with enough reps.

There aren't any trading psychology books on my list. They feel cliched at this point, partially because they are so ingrained in most traders' libraries and partially because I've already read the majority of the most popular ones. Instead, I've been chasing down books based on personal realizations around my learning/trading patterns:

  1. In the past I have given up too easily on trading strategies and other areas of life. How can I work on persevering?

    1. Grit - Angela Ducksworth


  2. Now that I am more determined to learn, how can I learn more efficiently?

    1. Ultralearning - Scott Young


  3. Efficiently Learning definitely revolves around the idea of Deliberate Practice. Are there more in-depth dives?

    1. Talent is Overrated - Geoff Colvin
    2. Peak - Anders Ericsson (Currently Reading)


  4. Ericsson really drills in the importance of mental representations. How can I dive deeper to apply it more accurately for trading?

    1. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions - Gary Klein
    2. Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models - Gabriel Weinberg
    3. Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious - Gerd Gigerenzer


  5. Once I have a strategy that is clicking, how do I stay consistent & avoid blind spots?

    1. The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations - Dietrich Dorner
    2. Practice Perfect - Doug Lemov
    3. Make it Stick - The Science of Successful Learning - Peter C. Brown


I've only made it as far is #3. The goal is to get through #5, but if I have a poignant theory along the way, I'm likely to change course admittedly.

  • #230
  • Dec 16, 2020 9:26pm Dec 16, 2020 9:26pm
The performance aspect of trading is underrepresented in trading literature, and I really like the way you've broken this into stages. I also approve of your reading list, and I hope you don't mind if I add some of these to the menu.

Most of the trading psych books that I've read haven't done anything for me, and I find them about as helpful as standard 'self-help' fare, which is to say, not very.

But a focus on decision-making, learning, memory, error-avoidance, that's my idea of a good time.
  • #231
  • Dec 18, 2020 11:08am Dec 18, 2020 11:08am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} clemmo, why don't you try long term ? IMO it's leverage + the high frequency of trades that makes things so hard.
Who says I don't?
  • #232
  • Dec 18, 2020 11:15am Dec 18, 2020 11:15am
In the end it's all about having a good time and spending spare time as you see fit. These days, with instruments that can double in less than 18 months, there is probably no rational justification for shorter-term trading, but some people (like me) can't resist an unsolvable puzzle. Besides, it's fun to mess with brokers who either don't have or aren't used to dealing with, an A-book.
  • #233
  • Dec 18, 2020 1:08pm Dec 18, 2020 1:08pm
There are worse mistakes though. The Baron Rothschild used to say - "I Never Buy At The Bottom And I Always Sell Too Soon”.
  • #234
  • Dec 18, 2020 6:49pm Dec 18, 2020 6:49pm
Nothing wrong with gambling as long as the odds are in your favour. And yes, he undoubtedly was. Rich people need to find innovative ways to waste their money.
  • #235
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:08am Dec 21, 2020 12:08am
Quoting clemmo17
I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying the question contains a loaded presupposition? Maybe it does, in that it presupposes some significance to 'price levels' but I am interested in testing that significance. It would be churlish to insist that price must bounce off a level at the exact price of its past peak/trough level, so how much 'padding' should we allow in either direction before a level is falsified or confirmed? So far it looks like that 19700 level or so is acting as 'resistance' but to be sure I'd want to see a decline as low as 15300...
I guess it was just a line of thought. On what basis would a line be significant if some padding is required? Define an acceptable level of padding. Would that be being an honest researcher? If it exceeds the line and the padding, then it was not significant? Isn't that screwing with logic? A bit circular?

Of what significance is a horizontal line? There may be reasonable fundamentals, like say coffee is reluctant to go below a buck. Same with Nat Gas - I saw people earlier this year buying below the dollar mark. Just because. Which came good, of course, if you had deep pockets. But then look at spot crude from earlier this year. Blah! No escaping expirations.

Now, the Aussie made a low this year that went back to 2008 which was about 60. There was some padding there for a few days or whatever and the weekly closed once below 60. Fundamentals have changed quite significantly since that time. It fair rocketed off those lows. It was nearly magical.

So, yes, I look at levels of course, but I cannot trade them, they exist purely out of curiosity. Not unwise to take profits, for example, and well, if it keeps going then hop back in. That's all. The probabilities simply are not in your favour to rely on them despite them working famously at times.

Like Gann and Elliott and seasonals and day/time of the year and pivot points (the ultimate in random lines, especially given there are at least 4 methods of calculating them - when traders get blown up by them, they will always find another line they missed that they ought to have considered before taking that tragic trade, and then the next R2 or R3 which also got blown away) and heaps of other stuff.

Its fighting the market, telling the market what you think it should do, even perhaps on the basis of what it has done in the past. You know, people of unsound mind can be highly predictable, too. Until they aren't.
  • #236
  • Dec 28, 2020 1:01am Dec 28, 2020 1:01am
Quoting clemmo17
There are worse mistakes though. The Baron Rothschild used to say - "I Never Buy At The Bottom And I Always Sell Too Soon”.
Bottom pickers and top pickers become cotton pickers.

Can't remember who said that. Jack Schwager?
  • #237
  • Dec 28, 2020 1:18am Dec 28, 2020 1:18am
Quoting clemmo17
Nothing wrong with gambling as long as the odds are in your favour. And yes, he undoubtedly was. Rich people need to find innovative ways to waste their money.
Ah, you have hit on something important here, perhaps inadvertently, and maybe committed an innocent non-sequitur. Yeah, I get the pun, of course, but bear with me.

The difference between uncertainty and risk. Uncertainty is when the probabilities are not well known, or don't exist at all. The players either don't care or don't know that they don't know, or any combination of that theme.

That is gambling.

If the probabilities are known or can be estimated with a degree of certainty, that is risk analysis. Ask any actuary or bookie etc. Casinos may be into gambling, but they don't gamble - they take risks.

The late great Aussie Kerry Packer was one of those "rich people". He'd drop 20 million (no limit, just stopped when he felt like it) a night at the casino and upon leaving tip everyone who served him a drink or whatever a hundred grand. {He was perfectly well aware of the risks and knew the odds, so hmm, was that or was that not "gambling"? Just havin' some fun, I reckon. Nobody knows.}
  • #238
  • Dec 28, 2020 1:23am Dec 28, 2020 1:23am
I have just finished reading the day traders manual by William F Eng, there was some interesting stuff but mainly for stocks.

Also both of Kathy Liens, Day trading the currency market and swing day trading the currency market, both were interesting.

I skim read earlier in December, adventures of a currency trader and also trading Ichimoku clouds by Manesh Patel

I haven't found the secret sauce yet (yes I am secretly hoping for it! ) but there is usually a small nugget in each
  • #239
  • Jan 5, 2021 7:38am Jan 5, 2021 7:38am
Who hasn’t gotten into trades too soon before the market has generated a signal. Who hasn’t entered a trade too late, or has convinced themselves not to take a loss only to end up with a bigger loss; or gotten out of trades too soon; or found themselves in winning trades but didn’t take the profits and let the trade turn to a loss; or moved stop losses closer only to get stopped out and have the trade move back in your direction?
  • #240
  • Jan 25, 2021 6:44pm Jan 25, 2021 6:44pm
Hey Clemmo17 I was wondering if you've ever heard of Brent Donnelly?

Attached Image


It is a book with lots of nice information, mostly for the "fundamentals" type of trader. I think he might hate scalpers though, but every type of trader can find valuable stuff in there imo. Thought it was suited for your book club ! For me, the section on forex history is worth it!
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
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