Lots of TV/online news coverage last night in Uk re the 'pausing' of brexit trade deal talks 'to refer to principles.' The move down from y/day's and the weekly hi of 3539 had already begun but was given an extra kick by this announcement seeing a pullback lo of 3419 and a close (on my broker) of 3436bid, against y/day's lo of 3410, so not a total capitulation, (so far.) It all depends on updates/reports/rumours over the w/e as to what market will do with it on Sun/Mon open.
The last 10 trading days or so has seen gbpusd and other related markets react to the said updates/reports and rumours as the 'mood music' has swayed from cautiously optimistic to pessimistic about the chances of a deal. Friday started the day as the former leading to the 2nd break higher from the previous 4hr range, after the pullback from 3499 - price finding support at the top of that range to move north again - clearing the longer term prev sw hi's @ 3482 and 3514 before the pullback to y/day's 3419 p/back lo.
Whilst the chances have taken a definite turn for the worse, nothing is decided yet, we simply do not yet know for certain whether there will be some kind of a deal or not. (There are also other fundie themes at play and I refer particularly to the developing one which is the potential U.s multi $tr stimulus/covid support package which will likely have an effect on the $ side of the gbpusd equation.)
Longer term bears nursing floating losses will have been given a 'shot in the arm' (if you'll pardon the rather prescient pun,) by the announcement, but a lot can happen between now and market open. Johnson is reportedly due to speak to Von Der Layen / Macron, probably Merkel (may as well whilst he has his address book open at 'M,') etc today, so we'll see what this brings. Of course if this is all just brinksmanship/posturing/theatrics and/or this ' little englander ' right wing govt in the uk really had no intention of securing what they sold to the public on leaving the Eu as an 'oven ready' deal anyway, then we will likely see a quick collapse of the talks.
We know the most probable market reactions to each outcome scenario so let's see which one actually comes about, and whether the most probable market reaction to the actual outcome plays out. Whatever happens, always trade what you see-not what you think, and be guided by price.
[I'm actually only gonna trade Monday as have got a good deal for some early winter sun so will be back trading after that on Mon 17th Dec for a few days before the xmas/new year break.]
Technically:
Briefly, Mthly remains rangy with recent strength off 2 x HL's and an upside break of the multi year desc t/line, (the effective top of the falling wedge on that t/f,) and resistance. (Last mthly HL is @ 2675.) Wkly/Dly remain in general fractal uptrends. Weekly candle closed bullishly but the Dly closed as a dragonfly doji/pinbar. (Last Wkly HL is @ 2854, last Dly HL is @ 3288.) 4hr resumed it's general fractal uptrend after last week's rangy conditions but the last printed candle was bearish. (Last 4hr HL is @ 3410.)
99% of the 13week awr travelled this trading week just closed, and 44% of 3mth amr so far this month.
The closing state of the 20/50/100 ema crosses across the t/f's was as below.
The last 10 trading days or so has seen gbpusd and other related markets react to the said updates/reports and rumours as the 'mood music' has swayed from cautiously optimistic to pessimistic about the chances of a deal. Friday started the day as the former leading to the 2nd break higher from the previous 4hr range, after the pullback from 3499 - price finding support at the top of that range to move north again - clearing the longer term prev sw hi's @ 3482 and 3514 before the pullback to y/day's 3419 p/back lo.
Whilst the chances have taken a definite turn for the worse, nothing is decided yet, we simply do not yet know for certain whether there will be some kind of a deal or not. (There are also other fundie themes at play and I refer particularly to the developing one which is the potential U.s multi $tr stimulus/covid support package which will likely have an effect on the $ side of the gbpusd equation.)
Longer term bears nursing floating losses will have been given a 'shot in the arm' (if you'll pardon the rather prescient pun,) by the announcement, but a lot can happen between now and market open. Johnson is reportedly due to speak to Von Der Layen / Macron, probably Merkel (may as well whilst he has his address book open at 'M,') etc today, so we'll see what this brings. Of course if this is all just brinksmanship/posturing/theatrics and/or this ' little englander ' right wing govt in the uk really had no intention of securing what they sold to the public on leaving the Eu as an 'oven ready' deal anyway, then we will likely see a quick collapse of the talks.
We know the most probable market reactions to each outcome scenario so let's see which one actually comes about, and whether the most probable market reaction to the actual outcome plays out. Whatever happens, always trade what you see-not what you think, and be guided by price.
[I'm actually only gonna trade Monday as have got a good deal for some early winter sun so will be back trading after that on Mon 17th Dec for a few days before the xmas/new year break.]
Technically:
Briefly, Mthly remains rangy with recent strength off 2 x HL's and an upside break of the multi year desc t/line, (the effective top of the falling wedge on that t/f,) and resistance. (Last mthly HL is @ 2675.) Wkly/Dly remain in general fractal uptrends. Weekly candle closed bullishly but the Dly closed as a dragonfly doji/pinbar. (Last Wkly HL is @ 2854, last Dly HL is @ 3288.) 4hr resumed it's general fractal uptrend after last week's rangy conditions but the last printed candle was bearish. (Last 4hr HL is @ 3410.)
99% of the 13week awr travelled this trading week just closed, and 44% of 3mth amr so far this month.
The closing state of the 20/50/100 ema crosses across the t/f's was as below.
Attached Image
Intraday swing trader @ 30min+ supp/res, & 5min+ sbr/rbs, via 1min+ set-ups
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