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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #563,781
  • Dec 4, 2020 4:29pm Dec 4, 2020 4:29pm
Quoting miedpreneur
suspicious.. why bears push down just a little.. hmmm.. maybe bears wanna go higher to hit again.. go go bear.. im always with you when price go high n higher so dont let me down bears.. expecting new high next week.. for short again ofc..
Or we open 300 pips lower, and big boys that don't need to close their positions get all the profit.
  • #563,782
  • Dec 4, 2020 4:45pm Dec 4, 2020 4:45pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} Or we open 300 pips lower, and big boys that don't need to close their positions get all the profit.
haha.. they cheat.. cause drop a litle when i sell.. then big drop just when i close.. lol..
Trade what you see, not what you think.. react and stay sharp..
  • #563,783
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:05pm Dec 4, 2020 5:05pm
I am not expecting a deal anymore...no deal this month, no time for all approvals, anyway...panic on the markets...pound sell off...and in january they will announce some negotiations again, which will calm the markets down.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #563,784
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:08pm Dec 4, 2020 5:08pm
Anyone else U.K. based watching news night?

Trucker owns import export talking about absolute economic suicide to go for no deal. No European truckers will be coming to U.K., they will not wait in customs for up to 5 days.

con mp after wanking off on Boris face says Boris will get their deal or no deal. He doesn’t believe boris would compromise & its the “oven ready deal” that’s been on the table for months.

fishermen will not be allowed to sell their fish to Europe... the whole network of EU/U.K. trade is being torn up overnight & the level of imo dumb af ignorance from our public and politicians is insanity. Madness.

every cloud.......

ladies and gentlemen this puppy will be going to 1.11
Que Sera
  • #563,785
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:17pm Dec 4, 2020 5:17pm
Quoting Catempire
they will not wait in customs for up to 5 days.
Well, I have seen truckers waiting days at "borders" within EU even...so they won't mind.

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Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #563,786
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:22pm Dec 4, 2020 5:22pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Well, I have seen truckers waiting days at "borders" within EU even...so they won't mind. {image}
No this chap who runs Dover trucking has said, as of 31st December they have all said to him they aren’t coming. If you are not part of the union then they can’t be arsed with the headache. Fair enough.

what about the fish

they won’t buy them ffs.

btw - some nice looking FTSE puts 5600 currently 22

could easy spike into high 4000’s !!
Que Sera
  • #563,787
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:23pm Dec 4, 2020 5:23pm
yes im with the bear side..
but in fact market always push high n higher after every drop from the bears thats mean bull still in play.. i will not surprise if we going up on monday to make another opportunity for short again ofc..
Trade what you see, not what you think.. react and stay sharp..
  • #563,788
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:24pm Dec 4, 2020 5:24pm
I’ll be having plenty of those on Monday.
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Que Sera
  • #563,789
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:24pm Dec 4, 2020 5:24pm
Quoting Catempire
{quote} No this chap who runs Dover trucking has said, as of 31st December they have all said to him they aren’t coming. If you are not part of the union then they can’t be arsed with the headache. Fair enough. what about the fish they won’t buy them ffs. btw - some nice looking FTSE puts 5600 currently 22 could easy spike into high 4000’s !!
I expect the negotiations to continue after the holidays, in january...but an exit with a no deal on the 1st. Black swan? Or just a correction towards 1.26-1.27?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #563,790
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:26pm Dec 4, 2020 5:26pm
Quoting miedpreneur
yes im with the bear side.. but in fact market always push high n higher after every drop from the bears thats mean bull still in play.. i will not surprise if we going up on monday to make another opportunity for short again ofc..
Market will not do that until forever...eventually it will just start dropping, without corrections and kill many accounts buying every dip. Everyone is now waiting for another opportunity to short above 3500...it might not come.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #563,791
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:29pm Dec 4, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I expect the negotiations to continue after the holidays, in january...but an exit with a no deal on the 1st. Black swan? Or just a correction towards 1.26-1.27?
Black swan.

U.K. economy will go into short term melt down people haven’t quite grasped how damaging this will be...

it is our only decent trading partner. 50%+ of our industry is traded with EU.

eu have said on no deal 20% tariff on fish, 5 day waits in Dover, this is just 1 market, even longer in Dover to begin with given this government aren’t prepared.

this will have rippling effects running across the whole country

Ftse will dip into the 4’s for sure

$22>$1000

fill yer boots !!
Que Sera
  • #563,792
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:31pm Dec 4, 2020 5:31pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Market will not do that until forever...eventually it will just start dropping, without corrections and kill many accounts buying every dip. Everyone is now waiting for another opportunity to short above 3500...it might not come.
im agree.. but im not every one.. i just need to see 1.3450-1.3470 area to be respect before i decide to go with sell again or wait a litle bit longer.. i expected this going on monday..
Trade what you see, not what you think.. react and stay sharp..
  • #563,793
  • Dec 4, 2020 6:23pm Dec 4, 2020 6:23pm
I guess I should have left an open short position after all... Johnson won't be able to resolve anything, only either to say we need to continue negotiating or we have to do no deal. I expect we open with a big gap down. If not, I will probably enter short before Frankfurt open.

Very difficult days ahead for UK.
  • #563,794
  • Dec 4, 2020 6:36pm Dec 4, 2020 6:36pm
Quoting VM.
I guess I should have left an open short position after all... Johnson won't be able to resolve anything, only either to say we need to continue negotiating or we have to do no deal. I expect we open with a big gap down. If not, I will probably enter short before Frankfurt open. Very difficult days ahead for UK.
You can open on the weekend in IG

personally now taken the stance until the hysteria hits the media markets won’t sell off fast.

doesn’t mean tops not in mind.

Well worth looking at some ftse jan / feb puts

feb also earnings season, of brexit hits hard undoubtedly will be negative forward looking statements to send it lower.
Que Sera
  • #563,795
  • Dec 4, 2020 7:23pm Dec 4, 2020 7:23pm
Just chatting to someone on Twitter. A brexiteer, clearly.

Him “but we can just sell our produce to other countries”

Me “where is this market suddenly going to appear from that wants British carrots & fish, or parts for aeroplanes that are made in Europe? a country crying out for all our goods? Have you ever considered the logistics of trading with USA over Europe? How those excess costs make readily available products (already in their country) none viable? Clearly not”

That is why the question should never have been put to the people, the people don’t understand it.

Brexiteers going to get a serious slap soon enough.
Que Sera
  • #563,796
  • Dec 4, 2020 9:33pm Dec 4, 2020 9:33pm
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  • #563,797
  • Dec 4, 2020 9:58pm Dec 4, 2020 9:58pm
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  • #563,798
  • Dec 4, 2020 11:08pm Dec 4, 2020 11:08pm
from Monday, on a daily basis, shorting shall be the priority for me.

ha..ha..
Intraday only.
  • #563,799
  • Dec 5, 2020 12:43am Dec 5, 2020 12:43am
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yes yes yes
  • #563,800
  • Dec 5, 2020 12:47am Dec 5, 2020 12:47am
Technical analysis.

Bears are excited over a drop from 1.3539 to 1.3446 (close) but they have not realized the price we closed at last Friday. Look at how many pips we have gained over the week-does anyone expect Cable to keep surging and surging non-stop? This is what has happened over the week:

Bulls: Mmmmmm, I am so comfortable sitting above 1.34, a previous resistance and have breached 1.35.
Bears: Hahahahaha, it dropped below 1.35, hahahahahaa.

Whose conversation makes more sense?

Bulls have broken 1.34 resistance and consistently closed above it. On a bigger picture, we are still bullish and I think we will head towards 1.37. Downside potential is definitely lower than upside potential.

Fundamental analysis.

There is a potential downside risk for GBP considering Brexit. But bear in mind this Brexit has been happening for years and if you look at it from the time it has begun, the downside of GBP has been lowering/recovering. This is the first fundamental issue that we have.

But there is also potential downside risk for USD, which is stimulus. Everyone in this thread have been talking about Brexit, Brexit, Brexit. But what about stimulus? A stimulus deal, which is supposed to emerge by/on 11 Dec. What does a stimulus mean for USD?

Conclusion.

Technically, we have broken resistance, made higher highs and higher lows.

Fundamentally, we have potential news of GBP downside, but news that are not that detrimental. We also have potential news of USD downside.

Outlook.

We could see some pullbacks on Monday, but on a bigger timeframe, we are likely to be heading towards 1.36/7.
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