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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #562,881
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:53am Dec 2, 2020 4:53am
anyone expecting GU to cross 1.34 today?
  • #562,882
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:55am Dec 2, 2020 4:55am
CatEmpire and Pipfarm are both good posters here - both with good contributions from a fundie and techie perspective respectively. personally I like the fundie discussion as for me it helps to fill the time between the set-ups per my edge lol. Please both continue to post, there is no need to fall out. There are so may ways to 'skin a cat' and we see many ways on display here in this thread.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #562,883
  • Edited 5:12am Dec 2, 2020 4:56am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting Maximumheigh
{quote} 1.3300 coming. Buyers beware!
We keep arguing here, though I like healthy arguments, but the question should be, how we making money? If yes, great. Everyone of us have our strategies and what work for us. Buyers and sellers will all eat from the market if parameters are in your favour. Please let drop our market sentiments without pride and let make money together which is every one goal.
Someone quoted my comments earlier on that we cannot get to 1.335x that I mentioned, I didn't insult or talk back at him and within some few minutes later we got to my metioned price. This market is no respecter of anybody, it does what he want to do. I am still siting 1.3300. let see what happens.
  • #562,884
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:59am Dec 2, 2020 4:59am
Quoting Ehsank78
anyone expecting GU to cross 1.34 today?
  • #562,885
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:00am Dec 2, 2020 5:00am
clearly favors the bears right now but big money will definitely want to eliminate as many sell orders as possible. therefore we'll go into stop hunting mode for sell orders.
Lord icarii All Time Return: na
  • #562,886
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:03am Dec 2, 2020 5:03am
Quoting Ehsank78
anyone expecting GU to cross 1.34 today?

We can expect whatever we like - the market doesn't give a shit what we 'expect,' it will do what it will do, just follow price and your edge (if you have one, and know what you need to know about it / and therefore have confidence in it,) which I doubt from the number of times you seek others' opinions. I don't mean this in a negative way bro, just pointing out that you need to trade your own edge regardless of what others think/expect.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #562,887
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:08am Dec 2, 2020 5:08am
Quoting VM.
{quote} Pipfarm, I think this thread is great exactly because everyone brings his own perspective. I for one am happy to learn the views from both fundamental and technical standpoints.

VM , i have no problem with any method or perspective , i am equally happy to learn other views but not at the expense of trashing others, the points i have made in the past are in response to the constant trashing of t/a by another member here to further his own agenda of which i am starting to get a picture of.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #562,888
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:15am Dec 2, 2020 5:15am
Quoting Headland
CatEmpire and Pipfarm are both good posters here - both with good contributions from a fundie and techie perspective respectively. personally I like the fundie discussion as for me it helps to fill the time between the set-ups per my edge lol. Please both continue to post, there is no need to fall out. There are so may ways to 'skin a cat' and we see many ways on display here in this thread.

No one wants to fall out here and both tech and fundie views are perfectly valid , but what i disagree with is certain members here trashing one method of analysis in order to justify their own. My own comments with regard to fundies are in response and defense to the constant negative attitude towards posts made using t/a.

My suggestion for members would be to post their view be it tech or fundie without having to include negative comments about others methods, i understand some of the comments are made in the spirit of pure jest and competitive banter which is not a problem.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #562,889
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:17am Dec 2, 2020 5:17am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} " all you are doing here is bickering and creating a bad atmosphere." I would suggest you read back some of your posts before calling anyone else out for that... Having read this page (But not posted) this was the state of play in here for some time... There are clearly some decent traders around, tho i doubt they post much, equally highly likely the ones that don't wee themselves with excitement when the price moves in their favour or completely over look the very fundamentals which drive the price. I was not knocking your skill, (& it...
What fundamentals make gbp/usd to go up from 20.03.2020 till today? It's 8 months.
  • #562,890
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:29am Dec 2, 2020 5:29am
Quoting L.m
It started snowing here this morning, a friend of mine just sent me this {image}
Attached Image
  • #562,891
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:29am Dec 2, 2020 5:29am
accumulation of long positions
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1.png Size: 24 KB
yes yes yes
  • #562,892
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:32am Dec 2, 2020 5:32am
The last months highs should be testet before it goes down again.
  • #562,893
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:33am Dec 2, 2020 5:33am
Quoting Tim_isoara
{quote} What fundamentals make gbp/usd to go up from 20.03.2020 till today? It's 8 months.
It was oversold way to quickly... it hit over a 30 year high against the GBP, so a bounce was inevitable especially falling from far higher so quickly & in the same sentence as the £ barely held at these prices from a fundamental point of view its not really risen from these prices.

The state of the USA economy and the rate in which they were pumping out debt this year.... they have increased the whole of the USA debt more in the last 3 years than all of th years before it.

More recently it can be attributed to Biden winning the election as he was, before hand talking about doing a 10T stimulus... basically turning the dollar into confetti.

In contrast to the USA the UK's GDP to deficit is only 101% with predictions for a rise in GDP next year against a 11% drop this year... personally I don't see a rise in GDP next year, in-fact far from it, hence my bearish outlook of the pound isn't just from brexit.

The USA GDP to debt ratio i believe somewhere over 180%

These of course have effects on why the pound bounced so dramatically and finds its self at todays levels... the fall in march was a knee jerk reaction to UK's first lockdown and over done. hence the bounce...

I think it would be fairer to look at the improving fundamentals for the £ from the low 1.2's as opposed to the knee jerk reaction early march.

But moving forward firstly as I say i don't see an improvement of GDP in 2021 businesses are going down left right and center & the effects of brexit will have long lasting effects on every market moving forward.
Que Sera
  • #562,894
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:35am Dec 2, 2020 5:35am
Quoting Moty
accumulation of long positions {image}
to easy..maybe head and shoulder in the making, still 1.3322 is better support
  • #562,895
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:36am Dec 2, 2020 5:36am
Quoting Headland
{quote} We can expect whatever we like - the market doesn't give a shit what we 'expect,' it will do what it will do, just follow price and your edge (if you have one, and know what you need to know about it / and therefore have confidence in it,) which I doubt from the number of times you seek others' opinions. I don't mean this in a negative way bro, just pointing out that you need to trade your own edge regardless of what others think/expect.
Thank you for your honest reply.
  • #562,896
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:43am Dec 2, 2020 5:43am
Quoting Tim_isoara
{quote} What fundamentals make gbp/usd to go up from 20.03.2020 till today? It's 8 months.
No Fundamentals ..No Sentiment..No Volatility.
  • #562,897
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:44am Dec 2, 2020 5:44am
I think its fair to say that the Wests economy is pretty shafted across the board but as far as near term drivers go to move a currency up or down we have to look at brexit...

Afterwards we will turn our attention to Biden getting into the White house and increasing the GDP / Debt levels in the States.

But really Brexit shouldn't be ignored.
Que Sera
  • #562,898
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:45am Dec 2, 2020 5:45am
same trade as yesterday, rinse repeat reward, not time yet though
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #562,899
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:48am Dec 2, 2020 5:48am
Interesting take from city index

”

  1. Comprehensive Deal (~20%) – Time is getting tight, but negotiators on both sides of the English Channel have publicly expressed support for a full, comprehensive trade deal. Given the lack of progress over the previous half-decade, traders are understandably skeptical that the two sides can complete a wide-ranging agreement in the next couple of weeks. That said, readers who are optimistic about the prospects of this scenario coming to pass may want to consider bullish trades on UK assets, with both the pound and FTSE poised to surge if a balanced, comprehensive deal is reached.
  2. “Bare Bones” Deal (~50%)– In this scenario, UK and EU negotiators are able to cobble together a last-minute “skinny” trade deal, potentially with an extension of the transition period to minimize economic disruption. While the two sides would need to pay special attention to certain sectors (such as the UK’s large financial services industry), the market believes there’s still a path to such an agreement. That said, this is seen as the most likely outcome by traders and therefore may lead to less volatility (in other words, it’s relatively “priced in”). That said, the initial reaction to such an agreement would likely be moderately positive for UK assets as it would remove the major risk of the UK spinning out of the UK with no deal.
  3. No Deal (~30%) – If negotiations take a turn for the worse in the coming days, odds of a disruptive no-deal, “hard” Brexit, where the UK reverts to the international trading rules set by the World Trade Organization (WTO), will rise. In 2019, the EU accounted for 43% of UK exports and about 50% of UK imports, so the imposition of new WTO tariffs and stricter border controls could tip the vulnerable UK economy back into recession in 2021.Traders still see this scenario as relatively unlikely, but it would certainly be very disruptive to the UK economy if it comes to pass. In terms of market moves, the pound would likely fall sharply, as would the FTSE (with banks and importers particularly vulnerable) as citizens and firms adapt to a dramatically different economic environment. Down the road, this scenario could also lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom, with support growing for both Scottish independence and a potential reunification of Ireland.

Que Sera
  • #562,900
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:51am Dec 2, 2020 5:51am
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