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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #561,501
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:13pm Nov 26, 2020 2:13pm
Quoting RazorFitch
{quote}
Is that it.. that's the level of your analysis and explanation of why the pound will rise after leaving its only trading partner?

To have the nerve to come and tell anyone here how things are done...

You havn't got a clue.
Que Sera
  • #561,502
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:16pm Nov 26, 2020 2:16pm
Quoting HBN08
{quote} Not a long term trader but at this point shoundt we consider how bad dollar can perform in 2021?
I don't know about economics, just technical.. market is not about economics, its about money flow, but its a game, and i believe in technical, don't watch news, don't care
  • #561,503
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:17pm Nov 26, 2020 2:17pm
not impossible to trade the way said interloper he who shall not be named says he trades. but its all about the details, entries, stops etc. a couple of generic charts is a just a start.

where are your entries and stops? are you in now?
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #561,504
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:19pm Nov 26, 2020 2:19pm
Quoting goldencalf
{quote} I don't know about economics, just technical.. market is not about economics, its about money flow, but its a game, and i believe in technical, don't watch news, don't care
Man, of course it is about economics.. Money flow happens after the psychology is formed from.... wait for it.... the economics.

Why do you think Zimbabwe currency is worth jack shit ?
Que Sera
  • #561,505
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:20pm Nov 26, 2020 2:20pm
Quoting HBN08
{quote} Not a long term trader but at this point shoundt we consider how bad dollar can perform in 2021?
Most people are now convinced dollar will crash in 2021, the media played a big part of it...so I expect dollar to break above 100 next year. Technically, I see 97-99 as a minimum target, anyway.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #561,506
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:27pm Nov 26, 2020 2:27pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Most people are now convinced dollar will crash in 2021, the media played a big part of it...so I expect dollar to break above 100 next year. Technically, I see 97-99 as a minimum target, anyway.
there are few folk who believe this and have bet on it. so many dollar bear about the smart money is on the other side. I agree (but only cause I think I'm smrt money).

but for the moment i'm a cable bull until proven otherwise.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #561,507
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:32pm Nov 26, 2020 2:32pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Most people are now convinced dollar will crash in 2021, the media played a big part of it...so I expect dollar to break above 100 next year. Technically, I see 97-99 as a minimum target, anyway.
well thats a view , overall long term i dont have a view
Just how the stimulss packs will be needed dispite who wins elections thats what says me a litle more down for usd .here i would a expect a touch in 88.200 from a technical point , altho we have some room up at this point just expecting a sweep at 91.700 maybe touch 91.500 and up again ...ofc can be wrong
Agree media talking some things that might confuse some, like me
  • #561,508
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:34pm Nov 26, 2020 2:34pm
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Man, of course it is about economics.. Money flow happens after the psychology is formed from.... wait for it.... the economics. Why do you think Zimbabwe currency is worth jack shit ?
I just don't understand economics, and you know, it will not tell me support and resistant levels, and other things...and Paul Tudor said look for technicals and fundamentals will follow..and other people call fundamentals -funny mentals...and market can behave irrational for some time, it happened for Jesse Livermore, he was to early for 2 years..it happened to other people..
  • #561,509
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:36pm Nov 26, 2020 2:36pm
Fundamentals (Economics, politics, gdp, QE etc) > Psychology (How the people buying and selling react to the fundamentals, past, present and future) > Candles on your screen > Technicals

In that order.

Hence why some people are more than happy selling before indicators tell them too (on resistance).

Personally know far more about the fundamentals & market psychology than I do candles and indicators.

Think its time to stop posting & let it do its thing.

Peace guys

Goldencalf: Thats fair enough dude, I appreciate that, but take on board, the economics and fundamentals come long before the candles are formed on a chart. Worth wrapping your head around for sure.

Bests.
Que Sera
  • #561,510
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:39pm Nov 26, 2020 2:39pm
Quoting nessus94
{quote} If it is that easy all the traders will go short pound for Brexit that is why it will rocket end of december
I think it is exactly why it strengthened against both USD and EUR in the last 6 months. It may also go up further. But every institution in City knows that Brexit will be hugely damaging. I have not seen a finance professional here in London that thinks otherwise. So what should be their game plan? I think it is to lift pound as high as possible and to drop it as quickly as possible, but maybe in a very chaotic way (big swings up and down to kill the oversized positions with tight stops). But let me ask you: what plan would you expect if my assumptions are correct?
  • #561,511
  • Edited 3:14pm Nov 26, 2020 2:58pm | Edited 3:14pm
+ Vaccine news - has helped the pound, plus there is an expectation that a trade deal will be done, and + data prints recently
When we finally leave- I will be selling-
then if things are not as bad as we think- and the vaccine works- long.
Into the month end will look to short the pound -

Looking at equities - not great really.
Trump's tweet that his team was going assist Biden's - saved equities last week
Bond markets shut today..
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #561,512
  • Nov 26, 2020 3:01pm Nov 26, 2020 3:01pm
Quoting Catempire
Fundamentals (Economics, politics, gdp, QE etc) > Psychology (How the people buying and selling react to the fundamentals, past, present and future) > Candles on your screen > Technicals In that order. Hence why some people are more than happy selling before indicators tell them too (on resistance). Personally know far more about the fundamentals & market psychology than I do candles and indicators. Think its time to stop posting & let it do its thing. Peace guys Goldencalf: Thats fair enough dude, I appreciate that, but take on board,...
with Brexit maybe easy, fundamentals, but what about other things, other country's economies, FED decisions, forecasting is for big boys, they need it, they cant just buy, or sell, they need to position in the market, and after them small speculator's come, we don't have information, and we don't need to know or market its priced that or not, just need to play safe, and sometimes you can bet huge, when accumulation is finished or all thing are in line, but this does not happening many times per week more like few times per month.., and i prefer buying, going with the flow
  • #561,513
  • Nov 26, 2020 3:13pm Nov 26, 2020 3:13pm
got a question, harmonic paterns and classics like double bottom, head and shoulder, some or lower probabilities?
  • #561,514
  • Nov 26, 2020 3:14pm Nov 26, 2020 3:14pm
... turning to technicals again... looks like this 4hr/dly rising wedge will contain price for a 4th consecutive day this week (other than the false break on monday) at least on the gmt+2 dly candles. dly below. We are getting closer and closer to the apex of the wedge/effective triangle so as the 2 trend lines close in on each other it becomes increasingly more likely that a break of one of them will occur. As price is currently around the 50% of today's 3398-3321 fall it is difficult to say which has the greater probability of a break first.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #561,515
  • Nov 26, 2020 3:31pm Nov 26, 2020 3:31pm
By the way, on Brexit. I remember seeing a one-year forecast by biggest investment banks, at the start of 2020. Goldman Sachs had it at 1.37. Barclays at 1.17. Guess what, they may be both about right, with a couple of weeks difference.
  • #561,516
  • Nov 26, 2020 3:55pm Nov 26, 2020 3:55pm
Tomorrow is friday, anything is possible, but I am expecting an USD bull day, so 3300 might finally break.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #561,517
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:01pm Nov 26, 2020 4:01pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Tomorrow is friday, anything is possible, but I am expecting an USD bull day, so 3300 might finally break.
or one more push up above new high ?
  • #561,518
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:03pm Nov 26, 2020 4:03pm
Quoting genadi
{quote} or one more push up above new high ?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #561,519
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:08pm Nov 26, 2020 4:08pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote}
do you look at dollar index when you trade cable ?
  • #561,520
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:10pm Nov 26, 2020 4:10pm
Quoting genadi
{quote} do you look at dollar index when you trade cable ?
I look at everything.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
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