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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #561,281
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:29am Nov 26, 2020 4:29am
Quoting Headland
{quote} it's a fair point you make about the current 'mood music' and price's inability (thus far at least) to break northwards of that major desc t/line to say nothing of the prev sw hi's to 3482/3514, but the technical position 1hr - weekly is still bullish and it points to a break upside of at least that major descending t/line....whether this will actually happen no-one knows, and whether the market as a whole are reading that mood music the same as you at this moment -sufficient to start a significant sell-off also remains to be seen.
Fully appreciated..

Us as traders, trying to position into large moves, with tight and relatively small stop losses, the Sell side (currently) seems like the far safer trade to be siding with... as it stands from the PA this week, a SL at 1.3420 will be sufficient for what could turn out to be a monster move to the downside.

And as traders, anyone waiting for it to fall through 1.315 before positioning is taking a far riskier stance on entry than where we are today.

None of us know for sure which way its going to go but... Risk reward from here is surely on the sell side.
Que Sera
  • #561,282
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:32am Nov 26, 2020 4:32am
if this holds then this will be the move that sends it over imo. conversely if she breaks down its going down fast.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #561,283
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:32am Nov 26, 2020 4:32am
Quoting JayBag
{quote} I understand your reasoning but we cannot keep doing ‘Ping-Pong’ forever.. Yes I agree we could be facing a minor sell since we so close to the weekly 100% level.. However, for some reasons, I think we likely to break above the 100% level to create a new trading level.. (if we break above 100% aggressively, then it becomes support for higher price) December is just like Friday and we can both agree that the year has been a bullish one.. On the H1, previous candle formed an ‘in on kneck’ (Typical setup for a continuation)and in this case,...
Jaybag... could it not be the case that before a major reversal the bull trap is rather large, indicators remain bullish until its moved considerable...

Technical indicators are lagging indicators... the psychology comes first no ??
Que Sera
  • #561,284
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:37am Nov 26, 2020 4:37am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Fully appreciated.. Us as traders, trying to position into large moves, with tight and relatively small stop losses, the Sell side (currently) seems like the far safer trade to be siding with... as it stands from the PA this week, a SL at 1.3420 will be sufficient for what could turn out to be a monster move to the downside. And as traders, anyone waiting for it to fall through 1.315 before positioning is taking a far riskier stance on entry than where we are today. None of us know for sure which way its going to go but... Risk reward from...

I agree the R:R certainly stacks up well for a sell from here but a good R:R possibility doesn't necessarily mean that the proposed trade represents the greater probability of near term (+) price direction...only each individual trader can determine that on the t/f's of interest to them, or fundamentally, - consistent with their edge. Technically overall it remains bullish 1hr-weekly but the rising wedge and rejections of the major desc t/line are bearish signs. For me on the lower sub 1hr t/f's it doesn't matter as even in a bearish move there will hi-prob trading opps / good R:R scenarios either way. Today so far for eg I've had 1 x sell and 1 x buy.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #561,285
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:44am Nov 26, 2020 4:44am
Quoting JayBag
My current skyscraper of LONGS... I have no idea how my broker feel about this but it's all good. Now GU, for the last time, I give you my blessings to fly higher as you can. I know you still have wings from the consumption of REDBULL from yesterday. TBH, I think 1.37146 is archive able.. By next week, I will have new entries for more but that should be above 1.34-5 SS {image}
Not a good practice loading up so many positions at different levels. But I still respect you as a trader and I trust you know what you are doing.

Also, I think there is selling pressure at the top.
Le$$ I$ More
  • #561,286
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:45am Nov 26, 2020 4:45am
Quoting Headland
{quote} I agree the R:R certainly stacks up well for a sell from here but a good R:R possibility doesn't necessarily mean that the proposed trade represents the greater probability of near term (+) price direction...only each individual trader can determine that on the t/f's of interest to them, or fundamentally, - consistent with their edge. Technically overall it remains bullish 1hr-weekly but the rising wedge and rejections of the major desc t/line are bearish signs. For me on the lower sub 1hr t/f's it doesn't matter as even in a bearish move...
If we add in the psychology of the surrounding political and fundamental situation...

End of the day the candles are formed based on the psychology of the market, the reasons it goes up and down are over the longer term entirely based on the fundamentals and the psycology of people wanting to hold or sell the asset...

Technical indicators are giving a delayed reading of the developing psychology of how the market is reacting (En masse) to the developments that are happening.

Long and short...

In 4 weeks the UK leaves its only trading partner 99% likely without a deal.. The technical indicators will evolve into reading this development long after the big money starts to take it into account.

In context of where we are now sat on the chart... The sell side is surely by and large the far safer place to be positioned with a tight SL just above a huge resistance.

There have been people coming on here posting targets of 1.45+ in the near term. Given not even me, being British would want my wealth in £'s on brexit, what in gods name is going to happen in the next 4 weeks to push it up that high, it makes no sense whatsoever...

Wealthy people will be moving their assets to different currencies on a no deal, for a short period at least!
Que Sera
  • #561,287
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:55am Nov 26, 2020 4:55am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} If we add in the psychology of the surrounding political and fundamental situation... End of the day the candles are formed based on the psychology of the market, the reasons it goes up and down are over the longer term entirely based on the fundamentals and the psycology of people wanting to hold or sell the asset... Technical indicators are giving a delayed reading of the developing psychology of how the market is reacting (En masse) to the developments that are happening. Long and short... In 4 weeks the UK leaves its only trading partner...

I agree with your points about candles graphically representing market psychology/sentiment and tech indicators derived from price being, by nature lagging. What is not as clear is whether the probability of a no-deal is indeed 99%....The Eu have a history of negotiations going into the wee small hours and down to the wire - it's in their dna/culture. Yes, the latest mood music has not been positive and the market is probably currently selling off to reflect this, but who knows the actual probability of a deal or not or whether as you have said there was ever even a serious intent to get one from the 'vote leave eurosceptics' currently in charge of Uk govt. Regardless of the practicalities/logistics even if a deal is reached the £ markets will doubtless breath a huge sigh of relief if a deal is done and this will likely be reflected as a knee-jerk reaction £ rise whether it is sustained into the longer term or not. Also when the mood is pessimistic / negative any good news/update on the negotiations can lead to potentially 'exaggerated' moves to the upside, and vice versa. Of course if there is no deal and particularly in the context of the covid effects, the move down could, as you suggest, be severe.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #561,288
  • Nov 26, 2020 4:59am Nov 26, 2020 4:59am
crude and gold rising... was it all about the stops? hmmm.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #561,289
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:00am Nov 26, 2020 5:00am
Quoting Headland
{quote} I agree with your points about candles representing market psychology/sentiment and tech indicators derived from price being, by nature lagging. What is not as clear is whether the probability of a no-deal is indeed 99%....The Eu have a history of negotiations going into the week small hours and down to the wire - it's in their dna/culture. Yes, the latest mood music has not been positive and the market is probably currently selling off to reflect this, but who knows the actual probability of a deal or not or whether as you have said there...
"What is not as clear is whether the probability of a no-deal is indeed 99%....The Eu have a history of negotiations going into the week small hours and down to the wire"

Granted it is not 100% nailed on... But a few points to note...

1.
Markets often starts to price in uncertainty, ie: If you had £100m in the bank, would you be waiting till the wire to move your assets into another currency or would you be pre-empting it happening just below the previous highest price paid all year ?

2.
Even a deal will not be anywhere near as good as what the UK have at the moment... and we are trading just below the highest price paid all year?

3.
It is extremely unlikely for the EU to be able to vote in any deal agreed with the UK in such a short time frame ... there is much info on this online, that the deadline was considered the beginning of November, its just not in the mainstream media.
Que Sera
  • #561,290
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:01am Nov 26, 2020 5:01am
Quoting Roszey
{quote} Not a good practice loading up so many positions at different levels. But I still respect you as a trader and I trust you know what you are doing. Also, I think there is selling pressure at the top.
fresh sw zone on h1
  • #561,291
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:03am Nov 26, 2020 5:03am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Jaybag... could it not be the case that before a major reversal the bull trap is rather large, indicators remain bullish until its moved considerable... Technical indicators are lagging indicators... the psychology comes first no ??
True that.. It tends to be more tempting before collapse or Rise.. Indicators? Yeah they tend to lag a lot hence I try not to use most found on MT4.

The psychology aspect is key and I have to agree..

Using that same idea is the main reason why I think we are not done with bulls for this November.. I start analyzing from yearly upto monthly candles.. Personally I’m expecting this month to break and close above previous.

For the year, I expect a Doji with a neckline/midpoint at 1.321 area..

Having these ideas on bigger and major TF, now you see why I don’t think we at the top yet on lower/minor TF even if it may look sooooooo over bought on these small TF..

Lets give it time, these tops on H1 will be dusted.
one thing is certain, MM are very creative with PA and they will always make it seem like we topping until it’s broken..

lets see see how it goes
  • #561,292
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:05am Nov 26, 2020 5:05am
GU short trade based on the setup posted here https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13282054
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 1126.png Size: 35 KB
  • #561,293
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:05am Nov 26, 2020 5:05am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} "What is not as clear is whether the probability of a no-deal is indeed 99%....The Eu have a history of negotiations going into the week small hours and down to the wire" Granted it is not 100% nailed on... But a few points to note... 1. Markets often starts to price in uncertainty, ie: If you had £100m in the bank, would you be waiting till the wire to move your assets into another currency or would you be pre-empting it happening just below the previous highest price paid all year ? 2. Even a deal will not be anywhere near as good as what...
your points are well made and I agree. It's good to get a fundie perspective.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #561,294
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:06am Nov 26, 2020 5:06am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Fully appreciated.. Us as traders, trying to position into large moves, with tight and relatively small stop losses, the Sell side (currently) seems like the far safer trade to be siding with... as it stands from the PA this week, a SL at 1.3420 will be sufficient for what could turn out to be a monster move to the downside. And as traders, anyone waiting for it to fall through 1.315 before positioning is taking a far riskier stance on entry than where we are today. None of us know for sure which way its going to go but... Risk reward from...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 26112020.png Size: 82 KB
We have a chart. On 50% fib rest or 61% fib ret is good for sell. Why to lose 4 weeks on sell?/
  • #561,295
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:07am Nov 26, 2020 5:07am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} "What is not as clear is whether the probability of a no-deal is indeed 99%....The Eu have a history of negotiations going into the week small hours and down to the wire" Granted it is not 100% nailed on... But a few points to note... 1. Markets often starts to price in uncertainty, ie: If you had £100m in the bank, would you be waiting till the wire to move your assets into another currency or would you be pre-empting it happening just below the previous highest price paid all year ? 2. Even a deal will not be anywhere near as good as what...
Yes agreed. Let battle commence and let's see where price goes...
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #561,296
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:09am Nov 26, 2020 5:09am
Now for the bullish fireworks
Lord icarii All Time Return: na
  • #561,297
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:09am Nov 26, 2020 5:09am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} fresh sw zone on h1
Le$$ I$ More
  • #561,298
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:12am Nov 26, 2020 5:12am
Quoting Roszey
{quote} Not a good practice loading up so many positions at different levels. But I still respect you as a trader and I trust you know what you are doing. Also, I think there is selling pressure at the top.
Firstly, I don’t think we are at the TOP (I’m sure you like, nor be juju be that?) Secondly, a trader that build like me should know never to use bigger lots As the building goes higher.. it’s a No-No..

what you see as a picture takes a reasonable amount of skill and experience needless to say I have been doing this for a long minute.. I do not advice anyone to attempt it. (It’s not for everybody) and definitely not for greedy hunters..

give it a bit of time and you’ll understand why I think it’s not the TOP

StayWay bud..
  • #561,299
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:12am Nov 26, 2020 5:12am
...bullish hidden div on 1hr below (on my oscillators at least) good probably so long as above 3304 holds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6aaff4dd8e0b97bf4e93487a7178089f.png Size: 39 KB
Trader with an Edge.
  • #561,300
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:13am Nov 26, 2020 5:13am
Quoting breakdbroker
Now for the bullish fireworks
And it’s that time of the year for fireworks .. I am here for it
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