How can i loose when i started from the bottom!?
- #3,608
- Nov 24, 2020 7:50pm Nov 24, 2020 7:50pm
{quote} May I provide my hindsight view of your chart. I havent checked or traded this pair beforeI probably not trade your first QM because it was not clean enough, although often price would still react to those level. Within your first QM I spotted 2 bull QM. That could be 2 trades, potential loss and win. I agree that the last Bear QM is a valid set up. It could be another win. The 3 QMs are around some structural price levels which added confidence in setting up trades. Just as you can see price didnt respect...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LRxpvBzC/
- #3,609
- Nov 24, 2020 8:39pm Nov 24, 2020 8:39pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
{quote} When we evaluate the freshness of a QM, do we consider this zone(refer arrow marked area in chart) as already tested before price broke the Swing low? In such case, do we still trade this QM? https://www.tradingview.com/x/LRxpvBzC/
But my observation by far is as long as a “perfect pattern” can be spotted on a timeframe, it has a slightly >50% chance a reactive QM = a win trade, if not considering anything else.
I suspect that, which I am keeping an eye on as my next step in this strategy, is to determine if a QM is invalid because of “freshness”. My current idea is a HTF retest would void all QM levels at LTF, between the two peaks of the HTF QM.
take example of the USD movement yesterday generating many scalping QM on majors.
AU, USDCHF could win, from left of chart, the level was “fresh”.
GU, EU had a HTF QM retest yesterday which were wins. At the same time as AU CHF, a scalping QM formed at same level on LTF.
EU lost. I am waiting to see if GU also will fail to confirm my hypothesis.
what do you guys think?
and what does the chart looks like on 4H?
- #3,610
- Nov 24, 2020 8:45pm Nov 24, 2020 8:45pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
{quote} When we evaluate the freshness of a QM, do we consider this zone(refer arrow marked area in chart) as already tested before price broke the Swing low? In such case, do we still trade this QM? https://www.tradingview.com/x/LRxpvBzC/
4H is a good QM pattern. I would look out to sell.
However, retest near the level happened on 18 and 20. At the same time I couldnt see any structural levels between the retests and QM level, ie the retest, although not at same level, was reacting to the QM zone.
i probably have given up the opportunity. Also today we can see it was broken. It would hit the SL even it will go to TP
- #3,611
- Nov 24, 2020 9:17pm Nov 24, 2020 9:17pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 16,699 Posts
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
- #3,612
- Nov 24, 2020 9:47pm Nov 24, 2020 9:47pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 16,699 Posts
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
- #3,613
- Nov 24, 2020 10:59pm Nov 24, 2020 10:59pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
{quote} 1. counter trend sell. think tp. half of normal tp, one third of normal tp .......... 2. first sell at resistance zone would have gain at around L slightly above trend line. 3. second sell. initial SL at head apex. there were 2 exit options as shown when L H HL HH was forming. SL here is a fluid one as pa developing. {image}
- #3,614
- Nov 24, 2020 11:01pm Nov 24, 2020 11:01pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
{image}
While EU/GU is at the exact same level, which would be in middle of the supply zone, a value area which price should pass through with less resistance.
- #3,619
- Nov 25, 2020 5:42am Nov 25, 2020 5:42am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 16,699 Posts
{image}
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
- #3,620
- Nov 25, 2020 7:05am Nov 25, 2020 7:05am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
Today I tried to manage a trade on AJ by only setting SL. initially was looking at 1.9R and 4R TP.
I was too focus on this sell and didnt notice the Bull QM. The grinding at the BULL QM profit zone was an ordeal!
Eventually price broke trendline and I just closed my trade when price “retested” the trendline. It may go down further. But that is 1.5R
So beginner I am working with TL...
This week despite of red Monday I am now 4.5R up. Finishing week early again Practice more real time next week ��
good luck to all!
I was too focus on this sell and didnt notice the Bull QM. The grinding at the BULL QM profit zone was an ordeal!
Eventually price broke trendline and I just closed my trade when price “retested” the trendline. It may go down further. But that is 1.5R
So beginner I am working with TL... This week despite of red Monday I am now 4.5R up. Finishing week early again
Practice more real time next week ��good luck to all!