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Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #1,101
  • Nov 22, 2020 2:49pm Nov 22, 2020 2:49pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.29490 area (blue) has held as a horizontal support on the USDCAD monthly time frame since December 2019. This month, a bearish market operation pierced the area before retracing northward. The 1.34040 area (magenta) is the prevailing horizontal resistance.

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USDCAD weekly market operation has been choppy within the 1.29490/1.34040 zone for quite a while. Two weeks ago a bullish candlestick was printed from the 1.29490 horizontal support area but last week a bearish candlestick print was initiated which failed to breach the low of the bullish print of two weeks ago, resulting in a relatively smaller bearish print with a lower shadow; this indicating that bulls are still influential in the market.

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Recent price action on the daily time frame has been sideways. Besides, the candlestick prints of the last four days have been relatively small, which indicates market indecision. We should await what happens u=in the early part of this week for directional clarity although the falling trendline (red) traceable to March 2020 is still intact.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,102
  • Edited Nov 23, 2020 4:05am Nov 22, 2020 3:10pm | Edited Nov 23, 2020 4:05am
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.33500 area (purple) is the prevailing horizontal resistance on the GBPUSD monthly time frame. The interim November print is about 80 pips shy of it. The 1.28900 area (green) is the horizontal support.

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On the weekly time frame, market operation is on a bullish mode, but the momentum is declining as it gets near tthe 1.33500 horizontal resistance area (purple). Three weeks ago, a relatively big bullish candlestick was printed from the 1.28900 horizontal support area (green). However, an indecision candlestick was printed two weeks ago, while the bullish print of last week is relatively small. A rising trendline (red), traceable to the second week in May is still intact.

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On the daily time frame, an inner rising trendline (blue) is being respected by price action. However, the bullish candlestick prints are diminishing in size. Price action is just about 70 pips from the horizontal resistance around 1.33500 (purple), although the 1.34800 handle (magenta) may be attractive to bulls. Technically, bulls are still favoured.

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Technically, price action on the H4 time frame is still disposed northward, respecting the inner rising trendline seen on the daily time frame (blue). However, the ‘wicky’ candlestick prints of recent price action indicate a decline in bullish momentum as price action approaches the 1.33500 horizontal resistance. It may take a significant breakout of the 1.33500 area, including a retest for a role flip, before we can have confidence in a bullish directional momentum. Success in that respect may see bulls target the 1.34800 handle (magenta).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,103
  • Nov 22, 2020 3:28pm Nov 22, 2020 3:28pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.19550 area (purple) has held as horizontal resistance on the EURUSD monthly time frame since June 2018. In September, a bearish print broke below the area to the 1.16300 area (blue), which became the technical horizontal support as the bearish print of October failed to break it down. The interim print in November broke above the area for a bullish market operating mode as it inched towards the 1.19550 horizontal resistance area. Presently, market operation is about 80 pips shy of the 1.19550 horizontal resistance area. Technically, bulls are still favoured unless there is a bearish rejection of the area by the close on the November print.

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The EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is presently sideways even though the general technical outlook still favours bulls. The candlestick prints of the last two weeks are opposite. The bearish print of two weeks ago had a long lower shadow, indicating bullish pressure while the bullish print of last week is an inside bar, indicating a pause or decline in directional momentum. A look at the immediate left shows some topping pattern as market operation gets near the 1.19550 horizontal resistance area (purple) seen on the monthly time frame. Therefore, technically, any bullish bias may be short lived even though there is no feasible ground for a bearish interest yet.

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Although the price action on the daily time frame is bullish in disposition, the candlestick prints since November 11 have been relatively small. Towards the end of last week, price action turned sideways. This indicates a decline in bullish directional momentum. Presently, price action is located about 80 pips from the 1.19550 horizontal resistance area (purple) seen on the monthly time frame. The area is susceptible to a bearish rejection, but bulls may still aim an attack at the 1.20140 handle (magenta). Thus, unless you are an intra-day trader or have been on a bullish trade for a while, you may have to await how price action handles the 1.9550 area in the early part of this week.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,104
  • Nov 23, 2020 7:20am Nov 23, 2020 7:20am
First time to this thred. Thank you for providing it and all the work you have put into it. I as I am sure others do appreciate it too.
  • #1,105
  • Nov 24, 2020 2:20am Nov 24, 2020 2:20am
Your analysis on different timeframes looks spot on. Do you trade equally on all the days of the week?
  • #1,106
  • Nov 29, 2020 2:17pm Nov 29, 2020 2:17pm
Thanks for your kind sentiment. I'm a swing trader. I don't trade on Mondays. I trade only when I have high quality set-ups.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting igcoerma53
Your analysis on different timeframes looks spot on. Do you trade equally on all the days of the week?
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,107
  • Nov 29, 2020 2:21pm Nov 29, 2020 2:21pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 0.70040/0.73750 zone (purple) is the prevailing market operation zone for AUDUSD on the monthly time frame. Presently, market operation is bullish, and the interim November print is at the 0.73750 area, this area has held as horizontal resistance since November 2018.

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AUDUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is bullish. Presently, it is at the 0.73750 horizontal resistance area, which has held as horizontal resistance since November 2018. The bullish print of last week pushed above a consolidation zone which had held for two previous weeks and this may encourage bulls to overshoot the 0.73750 area for the minor resistance around 0.74470 (magenta).

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Price action on the daily time frame is presently sideways as it enters the 0.73750 horizontal resistance area seen on the weekly time frame. This indicates a decline in bullish momentum but technically the market structure has not broken for bears. We may see further northward push of price action in the early part of his week, but bears are becoming more influential in the market.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,108
  • Nov 29, 2020 2:26pm Nov 29, 2020 2:26pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

XAUUSD market operation is generally bearish. On the monthly time frame, in September market operation rejected the 1978.00 area which had acted as horizontal resistance. However, there was no bearish follow-through in October. Nevertheless, the interim November print has entered the 1766.00 horizontal support area (purple), an area that was the origin of a relatively strong bullish move in July.

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A bearish impulsive move is prevailing on the XAUUSD weekly time frame. Presently, market operation is at the 1766.00 horizontal support area (magenta). The bearish print of last week has a slightly more pronounced lower shadow than its upper shadow and we may see some bullish action in the early part of this week. This, however, does not negate the bearish technical outlook seen on the monthly time frame.

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Price action on the daily time frame is generally bearish, having broken down the 1861.00 horizontal support area (magenta) on Monday November 23. The area has held as horizontal support since August 12. However, the bearish momentum gave way to sideway price action last week Wednesday before a further bearish move on Friday. The Friday’s bearish print has a lower shadow, which was apparently a bullish reaction as price action entered the next horizontal support area around 1766.00. We may see a bullish pullback in the early part of this week before any further bearish drive. At any rate, there are a few barriers to a bearish drive around the 1766.00/1745.00 zone (purple). A significant bearish breakdown of the zone on a daily closing basis may yield sustainable southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,109
  • Nov 29, 2020 3:20pm Nov 29, 2020 3:20pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.33500/1.34800 zone (magenta) is the prevailing horizontal resistance on the GBPUSD monthly time frame. The zone has held as resistance since June 2018. Presently, market operation is bullish, and the interim November print has inched to the zone. The projection of a long-term falling trendline traceable to 2007 forms a falling channel (blue) for recent market operation. Presently, the interim November print is about 170 pips below the channel resistance; so, we may likely see further bullish move before a bearish turnaround. The 1.28170 area is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

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On the weekly time frame, although technicals support bulls, there is a decline in bullish momentum. The bullish breakout of a consolidation area two weeks ago failed to have significant bullish follow-through, printing a relatively small candlestick. Nevertheless, the ‘wicky’ candlesticks earlier printed in the 1.33500/1.34800 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) may interest bulls and we may see further northward move in the early part of this week. Should bulls maintain a positive momentum, they may expose the 1.359100 handle (navy), which, technically, is an extension of the 1.33500/1.34800 horizontal resistance zone and susceptible to a bearish turnaround.

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Although the bullish price action on the daily time frame is presently experiencing a bearish pressure as it enters the 1.33500/1.34800 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) seen on the monthly time frame, technicals still favour bulls. Last week Friday, a bearish print broke down the sideways created some days earlier at the 1.33500 boundary but failed to breach an inner rising trendline (black). A longer rising trendline (red) is still intact. Thus, I will not bet against the bulls yet. It will take a significant breakdown of the inner rising trendline (black) on a daily closing basis before I look for a feasible a sell trading opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,110
  • Nov 29, 2020 3:28pm Nov 29, 2020 3:28pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation on the monthly time frame is bullish and near the 1.19550/1.20140 horizontal resistance zone (magenta). The zone has held as horizontal resistance since June 2018. Presently, the interim November print has inched to the 1.19550 lower boundary of the zone and we may see further bullish move before any technical reaction for a potential bearish turnaround. The 1.16300 area (purple) is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is bullish. Last week, a bullish continuation candlestick was printed, which broke out of a two-week consolidation zone. We may see further bullish move before any potential bearish reaction as market operation enters the 1.19550/1.20140 multi-week horizontal resistance zone (magenta).

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Technicals on the daily time frame support bulls. A rising trendline (blue) from recent lows is still intact and there has been little bearish reaction. Nevertheless, recent bullish prints have alternated between small and pronounced prints. The Friday print was relatively pronounced and may sign post a bullish surge before any strong bearish reaction as price action enters the 1.19550/1.20140 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) seen on the monthly time frame. Technically, the area is susceptible to a bearish rejection, but we should await what price action does in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,111
  • Dec 5, 2020 3:32pm Dec 5, 2020 3:32pm
I am presently doing my pre-weekly market screening of the pairs on my watch list. The USDCAD looks promising for a southward continuation. Details will be posted on this pair and more before the market opens.

Stay safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,112
  • Dec 6, 2020 2:10pm Dec 6, 2020 2:10pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.29800 area was the prevailing horizontal support zone of USDCAD market operation on the monthly time frame before the interim December print pushed far below it. Technically, we may see bears target the next horizontal support around 1.26400/1.25400 zone (magenta). The order flow context and recent candlestick prints favour bears.

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USDCAD market operation on the weekly time frame is within a falling channel (red). The bearish candlestick print of last week broke below the channel support trendline, and we may see bears target the next horizontal support around 1.26400/1.25400 (magenta).

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Price action on the H4 time frame has broken down the falling channel (red) within which it was operating. A bullish pullback that retests the support trendline or an area of value near it, say the 1.28500/1.28700 area (blue), for a role flip will likely result in a bearish continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,113
  • Dec 6, 2020 2:50pm Dec 6, 2020 2:50pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 0.75000 psychological area (magenta) is proximal to the prevailing horizontal resistance of AUDUSD market operation on the monthly time frame. The bullish candlestick print in November was about 110 pips shy of the area while the October bearish print began 110 below it. Presently, the interim December print disposes a few pips northward towards the area, having pushed a few pips above the high of the November bullish print.

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AUDUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is presently disposed northward within a rising wedge (purple). However, it is getting near the horizontal resistance and the psychologically reactive area around 0.75000 (magenta) seen on the monthly time frame. Furthermore, a falling trendline (red), traceable to January 2014, is in play above market operation and, technically, may act as resistance to it. Thus, although there is still room for further northward move, bulls will have to contend with strong barriers that may hinder a northward drive.

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AUDUSD price action on the daily time frame is operating in a rising triangle (blue) and near the triangle resistance trendline, where a bearish print on Friday countered the bullish print of Thursday. It should be noted that the bullish print of Thursday was relatively smaller than the bullish print of Wednesday. In fact, the candlestick in the last five days showed a decline in bullish momentum as price action tackles the 0.74300/0.75000 horizontal resistance zone. Unless there is a stronger bullish ambition, we may see bears influencing a southward turnaround within the 0.74300/0.75000 horizontal resistance zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily_December 6, 2020.png Size: 39 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,114
  • Dec 6, 2020 3:20pm Dec 6, 2020 3:20pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.19500 area was acting as the horizontal resistance for EURUSD market on the monthly time frame until November. Now that the interim December print has broken above it, we may see bulls target the 1.22000/1.23000 zone (magenta), the zone is just about 100 pips above the present location of market operation and amenable to a bullish attack. The zone aligns with the origin of the downward swing of April 2018 that has not yet been retested; technically, a retest of the area is expected either for a bearish rejection or a sustainable bullish continuation.

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EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame printed a relatively big bullish continuation candlestick last week. Technically, looking at the previous ‘wicky’ candlestick prints at the 1.22000/1.23000 zone (magenta) and its overshoot, the area may serve as a liquidity target for bulls before any southward turnaround. Thus, we are likely to see further bullish move in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The indecision or small candlestick prints, and in opposite direction, on Thursday and Friday last week suggest a decline in bullish momentum. However, the technical market structure on the daily time frame is still bullish. A rising trendline (red), traceable to May 7, is still in play. Presently, price action is operating in a rising wedge (blue) with a bullish mode although there is bearish pressure as price action is at the wedge resistance trendline and the next horizontal resistance, at the 1.22000/1.23000 zone (magenta), is a few pips away. A bigger rising wedge (red) can also be seen, being formed with the rising trendline traceable to May 7, indicating room for further bullish move. Nevertheless, what happens at the 1.22000/1.23000 zone (magenta) in the early part of this week is crucial for directional clarity. A bearish rejection of the zone will likely incentivize bears for a southward turnaround. The 1.19700/1.18800 zone (green) is, technically, the significant horizontal support area on the daily time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_December 6, 2020.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,115
  • Dec 6, 2020 3:44pm Dec 6, 2020 3:44pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD bullish drive in July continued in August but met a horizontal resistance around the 1.35000 area before a southward turnaround in September. Although the October and November prints were bullish, the 1.35000 area was never breached. In fact, the November print failed to retest it. However, the interim December print has inched towards the area, and the 1.35000/1.37000 zone (magenta) is technically the immediate barriers to any further bullish ambition.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBPUSD market operation is disposed positively on the weekly time frame. It is within a rising wedge (red) and recent candlestick prints are bullish. Presently, market operation is a few pips below the wedge resistance trendline and near the next horizontal resistance around the 1.35000/1.37000 zone (magenta); potentially offering a confluence of resistance. Although, there is a decline in bullish momentum as recent candlestick prints show an increase in bearish pressure, the previous bullish swing within the rising wedge (red) points to another potential northward swing being made after the bearish correction that began 14 weeks ago. Technically, the projected measured move of such a potential bullish swing ends at the 1.38700 area (blue). Whether bulls can attain that target is mooted but how the market handles the 1.35000/1.37000 area (magenta) in the early part of this week should be watched.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is slowly grinding northward within a rising triangle (blue). Although, the recent candlestick prints show an increase in bearish pressure, the technical market structure supports bulls. Technically, this will remain so until the 1.33000 area (green) is significantly broken down on a daily closing basis.

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The GBPUSD H4 time frame shows a weakness in bullish momentum and an increase in bearish pressure. The last two H4 candlesticks on Friday showed a significant bearish drive from a horizontal resistance area but the shadows on both ends of the candlesticks indicate that bears are still not in control of price action. Presently, price action has briefly pulled back from the minor horizontal support around 1.34000. Should bears regain control of price action, a significant bearish breakdown of the 1.34000 area may incentivize them to target the next significant horizontal support around 1.33000 (green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4_December 6, 2020.png Size: 44 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,116
  • Edited 3:36am Dec 8, 2020 1:37am | Edited 3:36am
The bearish drive of yesterday broke below the 1.33000 horizontal support but retraced northward, printing a hanging man candlestick. Technically, this signposts further southward potential. But it will take a significant bearish breakdown of the area on a daily closing basis for a swing trader like me to look for a feasible shorting opportunity.

Stay safe, trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
....the technical market structure supports bulls. Technically, this will remain so until the 1.33000 area (green) is significantly broken down on a daily closing basis. {image} The GBPUSD H4 time frame shows a weakness in bullish momentum and an increase in bearish pressure....Presently, price action has briefly pulled back from the minor horizontal support around 1.34000. Should bears regain control of price action, a significant bearish breakdown of the 1.34000 area may incentivize them to target the next significant horizontal support around...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,117
  • Dec 8, 2020 5:06am Dec 8, 2020 5:06am
Price action on the D1 tf is still sideways below the 1.22000/1.23000 horizontal resistance zone. This indicates a decline in bullish momentum and a market indecision or directional ambivalence. How Tuesday plays out may be crucial for directional clarity.

Stay safe, trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
...Technically, looking at the previous ‘wicky’ candlestick prints at the 1.22000/1.23000 zone (magenta) and its overshoot, the area may serve as a liquidity target for bulls before any southward turnaround. Thus, we are likely to see further bullish move in the early part of this week. {image} The indecision or small candlestick prints, and in opposite direction, on Thursday and Friday last week suggest a decline in bullish momentum. However, the technical market structure on the daily time frame is still bullish. A rising trendline (red), traceable...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,118
  • Dec 12, 2020 2:14pm Dec 12, 2020 2:14pm
Although the USDCAD market is presently bearish, we may see a northward pullback before bearish continuation this week. I hope to provide details on this pair, and the EURUSD and GBPUSD before the market opens.

Stay safe, trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,119
  • Dec 13, 2020 2:08pm Dec 13, 2020 2:08pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Presently, USDCAD market operation on the monthly time frame is bearish and at the 1.27600 horizontal support area. The next significant horizontal support is the 1.25060 area (purple). However, we should note that the market operation is within a rising channel (red) and it is near the channel support trendline.

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On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, market operation broke down the 1.30210/1.29000 horizontal support zone (magenta), which has held as support since September 2018. However, there was no significant bearish follow-up last week, as the candlestick print was ambivalent – being doji-like and relatively small. We may have to await what the market does in the early part of this week, particularly as market operation is near the support trendline of the rising channel (red) seen on the monthly time frame. A northward pull-back of market operation to the 1.30210/1.29000 zone (magenta), or any other area of value, for a bearish rejection and role flip may incentivize bears for increased southward drive. The 1.25060 area (purple) is the next significant horizontal support on the weekly time frame.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a falling wedge (blue). The bearish candlestick on Thursday last week printed a bottom shadow at the wedge support trendline while a bullish print on Friday effected a northward pullback from it. Thus, we may see further bullish move in the early part of this week before a southward continuation. A potential value area for a northward pullback is within the 1.30210/1.29000 previous horizontal support zone (magenta). A bigger falling wedge, potentially linked to a longer falling trendline (navy), may be influential later.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,120
  • Edited 3:32pm Dec 13, 2020 3:12pm | Edited 3:32pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is disposed positively having broken out of the 1.19250 horizontal resistance area, which held for several months. On the monthly time frame, the interim December print is about 250 pips above the 1.19250 area and market operation is now at another horizontal resistance area, the 1.20600/1.23000 zone (magenta). The 1.16400 area (green) is significant as the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

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EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is bullish but bearish pressure is emerging as the market operation enters the significant 1.20600/1.23000 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) seen on the monthly time frame. Although the 1.20600/1.23000 zone (magenta) is the significant horizontal resistance area on the EURUSD monthly time, market operation on the weekly time frame may find the 1.21900 area (purple) as a major barrier to bullish momentum. Last week, market operation printed a doji-like candlestick, which indicates a weakness in bullish momentum and directional indecision in the market. What the market does in the early part of this week may be critical for directional clarity. We should note that although an outer rising trendline (red) may be influential as support in the longer-term, an inner rising trendline (blue), traceable to May 2020, is presently at play as support. The 1.18500 area (sandybrown) is the immediate major horizontal support on the weekly time frame.

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The bullish price action on the daily time frame is losing steam as it enters the 1.21900 horizontal resistance area (purple). The candlestick prints in the past seven days have been ‘wicky’ and mixed. A significant bearish breakdown of a minor rising trendline (magenta), traceable to recent lows, may incentivize bears for a southward continuation. This may expose the 1.18500 horizontal support area (sandybrown). Meanwhile, as successful trading is reactive, we should wait for what price action does in the early part of this week before making any directional commitment.

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Recent price action on the H4 time frame is consolidating in a falling channel (blue). Presently, it is bullish within the channel but at channel resistance trendline. The last four H4-candlestick prints on Friday indicate some bearish pressure – the first was a relatively big bearish print that broke from above the channel resistance trendline and into the channel, followed by three doji-like candlesticks printed just below the channel resistance trendline. A bearish rotation of price action within the falling channel may be in the offing.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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