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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #559,961
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:17pm Nov 19, 2020 11:17pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Yesterday's candle failed to make a new high as compared with the previous day's candle. Yesterday's candle made a new low as compared to the previous day's candle. Yesterday's candle closed with a bearish body. Did I hear you say DEMAND day?
agreed BUT all the demand yesterday came off the lows of the day ...... its was accumulated for hours between 1,3200 and a,3250 ...for a small move ? no
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,962
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:18pm Nov 19, 2020 11:18pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Yesterday's candle failed to make a new high as compared with the previous day's candle. Yesterday's candle made a new low as compared to the previous day's candle. Yesterday's candle closed with a bearish body. Did I hear you say DEMAND day?
nice debate btw .... always nice debating with an intellectual mind
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,963
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:18pm Nov 19, 2020 11:18pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Let me show you through a small example. We trade on an EXCHANGE right? Now imagine that you are a Bitcoin exchanger. You had 3 transactions yesterday. Transaction 1: client sold $1,000 worth of Bitcoin to you. Transaction 2: client bought $200 worth of Bitcoin from you. Transaction 3: client bought $400 worth of Bitcoin from you. How much (dollars) worth of Bitcoin did you transact for that day?
I await your answer to this question @malcolmb
  • #559,964
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:20pm Nov 19, 2020 11:20pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Yesterday's candle failed to make a new high as compared with the previous day's candle. Yesterday's candle made a new low as compared to the previous day's candle. Yesterday's candle closed with a bearish body. Did I hear you say DEMAND day?
how is yesterdays bar a bearish body ?

price tried to push lower and was BOUGHT ... this in vsa is called testing.

Smart money do this all the time in trends . They want to take price higher or want to accumulate at a certain level they will take price down in a choppy manner ... under low volume .... and then you will see the volume increase which is exactly what gbpusd did on the lows yesterday .

the fact that the bar closed near the highs after trying to be pushed down is BULLISH 100%
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,965
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:22pm Nov 19, 2020 11:22pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Let me show you through a small example. We trade on an EXCHANGE right? Now imagine that you are a Bitcoin exchanger. You had 3 transactions yesterday. Transaction 1: client sold $1,000 worth of Bitcoin to you. Transaction 2: client bought $200 worth of Bitcoin from you. Transaction 3: client bought $400 worth of Bitcoin from you. How much (dollars) worth of Bitcoin did you transact for that day?
I will go ahead and answer. Quite possibly someone will see a bit of logic in the "none-sense" I type.

ANSWER 1: $1,000 + $200 + $400 = $1,600

Now imagine you started the new day with an opening bitcoin balance of $7,000

Did you close the day with $7,000 + $1,600 = $8,600 as you closing balance?

Hmmmmnnnn . . .
  • #559,966
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:23pm Nov 19, 2020 11:23pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Let me show you through a small example. We trade on an EXCHANGE right? Now imagine that you are a Bitcoin exchanger. You had 3 transactions yesterday. Transaction 1: client sold $1,000 worth of Bitcoin to you. Transaction 2: client bought $200 worth of Bitcoin from you. Transaction 3: client bought $400 worth of Bitcoin from you. How much (dollars) worth of Bitcoin did you transact for that day?
you have 1000 sellers and 600 buyers ..... sellers out number buyers and seller will have to drop prices to entice new buyers ,... hence the price of selling will go down

thats market dynamics and how vsa works
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,967
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:26pm Nov 19, 2020 11:26pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I will go ahead and answer. Quite possibly someone will see a bit of logic in the "none-sense" I type. ANSWER 1: $1,000 + $200 + $400 = $1,600 Now imagine you started the new day with an opening bitcoin balance of $7,000 Did you close the day with $7,000 + $1,600 = $8,600 as you closing balance? Hmmmmnnnn . . .
your argument while valid is not how simple laws of supply and demand work
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,968
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:28pm Nov 19, 2020 11:28pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Let me show you through a small example. We trade on an EXCHANGE right? Now imagine that you are a Bitcoin exchanger. You had 3 transactions yesterday. Transaction 1: client sold $1,000 worth of Bitcoin to you. Transaction 2: client bought $200 worth of Bitcoin from you. Transaction 3: client bought $400 worth of Bitcoin from you. How much (dollars) worth of Bitcoin did you transact for that day?
Okay, let me try again.

ANSWER 2: $1,000 - $200 - $400 = $400 (NET)

This actually is the EFFECTIVE quantity (volume) that will move price. The rest of it can be considered as being EXCHANGED between traders.

Now, let's imagine the opening balance for the day was $7,000

Our closing balance for the day will be $7,000 + $400 = $7, 400

This is the more appropriate answer.
  • #559,969
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:34pm Nov 19, 2020 11:34pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} The value area that will be used today is 1.3257 It might be noteworthy to state that volume as presented on MT4 is not readily useable because it shows the agglomeration of both buy and sell orders per period. The effective volume that moves price is the difference (Delta) between the buy and sell orders for each period. This when cumulated as the trading day progresses can be used to re - adjust price thus thus creating an unto (one - to - one) mapping between the price you see on your chart and this newly obtained volume adjusted...
I stated the emboldened in my previous post.

The volume presented on MT4 is similar to the first answer I gave to the question ($1,600)

But what the trader really needs is the NET volume (effective volume) which is the difference (delta) between buy volume and sell volume done for each period. This is what will then be used in re - adjusting price.

I hope this makes a bit of sense?
  • #559,970
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:35pm Nov 19, 2020 11:35pm
this is daily gbpusd ... the arrow marks a low voume UP bar and yesterday we have a sign of strength

its dangerous trading grounds between 1.3200 and 1.3300 now.....

IF buyers want to take this up they have to MARK up price through the sellers seens at 1.3311..... this jumping the creek should be on an INCREASE in volume and then tested afterwards by a low volume DOWN bar testing prior resistance now turned support. .... that is the trade I am waiting for today IF we are to have an up day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-11-20_8-31-09.png Size: 46 KB
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  • #559,971
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:36pm Nov 19, 2020 11:36pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Done as expected. Now we can see 1.3160 then maybe 1.3125 The above mentioned levels are the untested value areas for now. Trade safe everyone!
well done i must say.
like i said after the LL on h1 didnt expect a comeback again and again and again.
  • #559,972
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:37pm Nov 19, 2020 11:37pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I stated the emboldened in my previous post. The volume presented on MT4 is similar to the first answer I gave to the question ($1,600) But what the trader really needs is the NET volume (effective volume) which is the difference (delta) between buy volume and sell volume done for each period. This is what will then be used in re - adjusting price. I hope this makes a bit of sense?
look up vsa and wyckoff .... it will answer all your questions on volume ....... and will give you a much better understanding on market dynamics
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,973
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:38pm Nov 19, 2020 11:38pm
maybe price is going up, cause not a magic buyers appears, but no sellers are for that price? something similar read in market wizzards
  • #559,974
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:48pm Nov 19, 2020 11:48pm
Quoting goldencalf
maybe price is going up, cause not a magic buyers appears, but no sellers are for that price? something similar read in market wizzards
its called mark up .... smart money never sleeps ... never jump on the break out ..... wait for the first low volume DOWN bar to enter . place a BUY stop above the low volume down bar .. the low volume down bar is the smart money testing for sellers before they take it higher
classic example on dow yesterday prior to 130 point up move
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  • #559,975
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:52pm Nov 19, 2020 11:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} agreed BUT all the demand yesterday came off the lows of the day ...... its was accumulated for hours between 1,3200 and a,3250 ...for a small move ? no
Hi Malcolm,
But we also saw accumulation for 2 days in 3270 region. And if we look at higher time frequency, it is accumulation between 1.32 and 1.33 for a week now -- quite a high price for GU this year. Wouldn't you expect that a big move (that, I agree, is to follow), would more likely be in the downward direction?
  • #559,976
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:56pm Nov 19, 2020 11:56pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} Hi Malcolm, But we also saw accumulation for 2 days in 3270 region. And if we look at higher time frequency, it is accumulation between 1.32 and 1.33 for a week now -- quite a high price for GU this year. Wouldn't you expect that a big move (that, I agree, is to follow), would more likely be in the downward direction?
nothing makes sense any more ....we might see some spike on daily above prior highs and then they tank it .

issue is with stimulus talks is usd gets crushed .......

I am a trend trader ... right now daily 4,2,1 and 30 are tredning up I buy dips ..and try not to think so much
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,977
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:57pm Nov 19, 2020 11:57pm
What amazes me is gazillion indicators different traders use to analyse and make entries and exits, at the end of the day it all comes down to price.

Indicators are never truly reliable, candle sticks patterns too are far from being perfect.

In my 13 years of trading experience so far, the greatest discovery i made years ago is that price often responds to distance covered which is what causes price descension and ascension while news are just fuel to create volatility to make the distance happen.

Calculate the average weekly, monthly and yearly distance of this pair and make sure your entries are placed there which means you can never be trapped and even if it goes against you, with good money management, such prices will be very repeatable and eventually profitable.

We are all trading against pre planned rates of major market makers and the price has to travel the distance set by them, they are so smart not to make it obvious but look deeper and you will discover mysteries.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #559,978
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:57pm Nov 19, 2020 11:57pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} its called mark up .... smart money never sleeps ... never jump on the break out ..... wait for the first low volume DOWN bar to enter . place a BUY stop above the low volume down bar .. the low volume down bar is the smart money testing for sellers before they take it higher classic example on dow yesterday prior to 130 point up move {image}
looks nice example,i tried trading with volume, small candlle big volume, big canddle small volume, just divergence, but 4h chart..
  • #559,979
  • Nov 20, 2020 12:00am Nov 20, 2020 12:00am
Quoting goldencalf
{quote} looks nice example,i tried trading with volume, small candlle big volume, big canddle small volume, just divergence, but 4h chart..
much harder on 4 hour .... daily it can work specially on a futures feed
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,980
  • Nov 20, 2020 12:04am Nov 20, 2020 12:04am
What a healthy debate we have here. I like it when great minds come together and argue the various market sentiments. In addition, I place so much attention to support and resistance area along with price formation when taking decision. We are currently at the top for the week and I will probably be looking for a sell position. I had a sell last night but closed at BE. I will be looking to sell around 1.327x-1.33. Let see what London brings.
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