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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #559,941
  • Nov 19, 2020 7:49pm Nov 19, 2020 7:49pm
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yes yes yes
  • #559,942
  • Nov 19, 2020 8:23pm Nov 19, 2020 8:23pm
buy day today

IMO
Intraday only.
  • #559,943
  • Nov 19, 2020 9:35pm Nov 19, 2020 9:35pm
Quoting navk
buy day today IMO
Last week closed with a long upper wick and a small body.

Two days ago, we had a daily candle close with another long upper wick.

Yesterday, we saw the daily candle close with a bearish body.

I think sell trades for today will be better.

My trading trading model also has levels at 1.3160 and 1.3125 which are yet to be tested.

Value area for today is 1.3257
  • #559,944
  • Nov 19, 2020 9:48pm Nov 19, 2020 9:48pm
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yes yes yes
  • #559,945
  • Edited 10:13pm Nov 19, 2020 9:52pm | Edited 10:13pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Last week closed with a long upper wick and a small body. Two days ago, we had a daily candle close with another long upper wick. Yesterday, we saw the daily candle close with a bearish body. I think sell trades for today will be better. My trading trading model also has levels at 1.3160 and 1.3125 which are yet to be tested. Value area for today is 1.3257
it may test 3288/3300 again.

For me, above 3245, buy only showing.

If it falls below 3245, then retrace
Intraday only.
  • #559,946
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:16pm Nov 19, 2020 10:16pm
Quoting navk
{quote} it may test 3288/3300 again.
Maybe unlikely to do so.

1.327X level was previous support now holding as turncoat resistance.

I still expect a sell off until 1.3160 or slightly lower.
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  • #559,947
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:24pm Nov 19, 2020 10:24pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Maybe unlikely to do so. 1.327X level was previous support now holding as turncoat resistance. I still expect a sell off until 1.3160 or slightly lower. {image}
the 30 and 60 are currently trending up . most likely will jump the creek on London open right through that resistance level ..... place your stop as i do not see one
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,948
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:26pm Nov 19, 2020 10:26pm
Quoting navk
{quote} it may test 3288/3300 again. For me, above 3245, buy only showing. If it falls below 3245, then retrace
Central pivot or typical price (HLC/3) might not be such an effective datum level.

Time and again, I try to tell traders that price needs to be re-adjusted by volume. Maybe this is why professional traders use VWAP.

While studying and analyzing VWAP from first principles, I realized something which will greatly reduce the accuracy of VWAP. It happens to be the use of the typical price (central pivot) as an average while computing VWAP.

A more precise method, in my opinion, would be to obtain the cumulative Delta volume which will then be used to re - adjust price.
  • #559,949
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:26pm Nov 19, 2020 10:26pm
Quoting navk
{quote} it may test 3288/3300 again. For me, above 3245, buy only showing. If it falls below 3245, then retrace
100% in agreement with this
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,950
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:29pm Nov 19, 2020 10:29pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Central pivot or typical price (HLC/3) might not be such an effective datum level. Time and again, I try to tell traders that price needs to be re-adjusted by volume. Maybe this is why professional traders use VWAP. While studying and analyzing VWAP from first principles, I realized something which will greatly reduce the accuracy of VWAP. It happens to be the use of the typical price (central pivot) as an average while computing VWAP. A more precise method, in my opinion, would be to obtain the cumulative Delta volume which will then be...
what is very clear on your chart your posted is that you talk about volume

yet on the first arrow marked it was clear demand ........... so why are you selling against that . lest see what London brings . the bottom of those demand bars is 1,3250 . that is the correct level to sell under not before .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,951
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:38pm Nov 19, 2020 10:38pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} what is very clear on your chart your posted is that you talk about volume yet on the first arrow marked it was clear demand ........... so why are you selling against that . lest see what London brings . the bottom of those demand bars is 1,3250 . that is the correct level to sell under not before .
The value area that will be used today is 1.3257

It might be noteworthy to state that volume as presented on MT4 is not readily useable because it shows the agglomeration of both buy and sell orders per period.

The effective volume that moves price is the difference (Delta) between the buy and sell orders for each period. This when cumulated as the trading day progresses can be used to re - adjust price thus thus creating an unto (one - to - one) mapping between the price you see on your chart and this newly obtained volume adjusted price.
  • #559,952
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:42pm Nov 19, 2020 10:42pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} The value area that will be used today is 1.3257 It might be noteworthy to state that volume as presented on MT4 is not readily useable because it shows the agglomeration of both buy and sell orders per period. The effective volume that moves price is the difference (Delta) between the buy and sell orders for each period. This when cumulated as the trading day progresses can be used to re - adjust price thus thus creating an unto (one - to - one) mapping between the price you see on your chart and this newly obtained volume adjusted price....
odd as i use volume on mt4 and 5 every day to make money ...... you make broad sweeping statements that are not correct
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,953
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:54pm Nov 19, 2020 10:54pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} odd as i use volume on mt4 and 5 every day to make money ...... you make broad sweeping statements that are not correct
Let me show you through a small example.

We trade on an EXCHANGE right?

Now imagine that you are a Bitcoin exchanger. You had 3 transactions yesterday.

Transaction 1: client sold $1,000 worth of Bitcoin to you.

Transaction 2: client bought $200 worth of Bitcoin from you.

Transaction 3: client bought $400 worth of Bitcoin from you.

How much (dollars) worth of Bitcoin did you transact for that day?
  • #559,954
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:04pm Nov 19, 2020 11:04pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} odd as i use volume on mt4 and 5 every day to make money ...... you make broad sweeping statements that are not correct

  1. We have clear lower volume than prior 4 bars . This is no demand and sign of weakness. No volume is like a plane flying with no fuel moves.
  2. Here we see an increase in volume and a CLEAR supply hitting the market . This is when the trader places the sell stop under the lows of bar at 2 but safer is under the no demand bar at 1 , This trade netted 40 pips off a 15 min with NO draw down
  3. On the bottom of the move we see volume suddenly INCREASE and the bat closes off the lows . This is potential stopping volume and we get ready for the buy confirmation
  4. We see a DOWN bar in an UP trend with and increase in volume and next bar is UP . This HAS to be buyers and is called a test . The trader places the buy stop above the high of this bar … netted 40 pips again with NO draw down
  5. So yes MT5 and MT4 tick volumes do work for trading …

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  • #559,955
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:09pm Nov 19, 2020 11:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} We have clear lower volume than prior 4 bars . This is no demand and sign of weakness. No volume is like a plane flying with no fuel moves. Here we see an increase in volume and a CLEAR supply hitting the market . This is when the trader places the sell stop under the lows of bar at 2 but safer is under the no demand bar at 1 , This trade netted 40 pips off a 15 min with NO draw down On the bottom of the move we see volume suddenly INCREASE and the bat closes off the lows . This is potential stopping volume and we get ready for the buy confirmation...

i think this post closes the debate ... anyone agree ?

Oh and BTW gbpusd is in the right place now to jump the creek .... hope sellers have stops in place
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,956
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:11pm Nov 19, 2020 11:11pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} The value area that will be used today is 1.3257 It might be noteworthy to state that volume as presented on MT4 is not readily useable because it shows the agglomeration of both buy and sell orders per period. The effective volume that moves price is the difference (Delta) between the buy and sell orders for each period. This when cumulated as the trading day progresses can be used to re - adjust price thus thus creating an unto (one - to - one) mapping between the price you see on your chart and this newly obtained volume adjusted price....

why are you selling above the value area ? not always price comes back to vwap ...... specially in trend moves .

go look at daily gbp and tell me you want to sell against yesterdays demand day.

Trading does not have to be so complex .. its really easy . look at PA and your candles you can make money
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,957
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:12pm Nov 19, 2020 11:12pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} why are you selling above the value area ? not always price comes back to vwap ...... specially in trend moves . go look at daily gbp and tell me you want to sell against yesterdays demand day. Trading does not have to be so complex .. its really easy . look at PA and your candles you can make money
currently just because of the demand seen yesterday on the daily candle its an 80 percent chance of up day today and 20 % chance of down day ... I will take those odds
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #559,958
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:12pm Nov 19, 2020 11:12pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} 100% in agreement with this
I am a new member, according to me it should dip back to 1.3255/60 then resume its upward journey to around 1.3340/45 today.
I may be wrong... Trade safe Cheers
  • #559,959
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:15pm Nov 19, 2020 11:15pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} why are you selling above the value area ? not always price comes back to vwap ...... specially in trend moves . go look at daily gbp and tell me you want to sell against yesterdays demand day. Trading does not have to be so complex .. its really easy . look at PA and your candles you can make money
Yesterday's candle failed to make a new high as compared with the previous day's candle.

Yesterday's candle made a new low as compared to the previous day's candle.

Yesterday's candle closed with a bearish body.

Did I hear you say DEMAND day?
  • #559,960
  • Nov 19, 2020 11:15pm Nov 19, 2020 11:15pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} currently just because of the demand seen yesterday on the daily candle its an 80 percent chance of up day today and 20 % chance of down day ... I will take those odds

daily vlosed off lows with an INCREASE in volume... mentioned already vwap is 1.3250.... my sells IF if was going to sell today would be 1.3235...

but for now its buy dips above 1,3250
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