has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system? | Page 73 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Successful Trading & Determining the Probability of a Trading System 10 replies

Has anyone ever seen this error message? 2 replies

SwissFXBroker (SFXB)--has anyone ever used them? 39 replies

Anyone ever seen a 'move to breakeven' script? 3 replies

New trading system hard to completely follow... anyone ever have this problem? 0 replies

Attachments: has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?
Exit Attachments

has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #1,441
  • Sep 19, 2020 5:19pm Sep 19, 2020 5:19pm
Quoting josephcom
Update 13 Oct 2019: Please, after reading this post (the first post) take a look at this post too (click on the link) to better understand what I mean. Thank you... OK, it's time for me to ask the big question! For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life. I am one of the best computer programmers...

If you like probability then you should be focusing on pure price action intraday trading. Trade near the s/r zones between market turnovers.

Focus on long term sustainability,

you will have outlier days/weeks/months, use them to your advantage.

I just had a couple, made a 1,000% roi this last week for $3,000.00

Over the two weeks before that I got $2,000.00 too.


But I normally average $500-2,000.00 in an entire month.

Currently sitting at around an 77-80% win rate for the year.

I have been trading for six years.

So I recognize that this was a really good series of trades. Which is why I am taking a few days off and pulling out the unexpected $5k to secure my profits.

These markets aren't going anywhere. There will always be currency markets to trade.
Love to talk on Discord: DividendGamer#1324
  • #1,442
  • Sep 19, 2020 6:05pm Sep 19, 2020 6:05pm
Quoting joyny
About 1 year ago I noticed some successful traders with solid stats available for investing. Today I see 1 of them is gone... 2 years ago he attracted ~700 investors with 5 mil USD capital. Now see what happened: {image} He traded manually. 2 years consistent profits. And now a disaster. And here 6 years consistent trader - still on the track: {image} He attracted ~1.5 mil usd investor capital. Now on 600k capital. Why >50% capital left...? maybe because of 1st case... investors invest in multiple traders at once. So if one huge fail then it impacts...
Very interesting! Could you please share the name of those profile, as well as your candle trend strategy? I am excited to discuss about them.
  • #1,443
  • Sep 20, 2020 1:17am Sep 20, 2020 1:17am
Quoting pozl
{quote} Very interesting! Could you please share the name of those profile, as well as your candle trend strategy? I am excited to discuss about them.
HFD and THA.

Candles strategy here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ow-the-candles

Read my comments in that thread. I made some adjustments.
  • #1,444
  • Oct 22, 2020 8:03am Oct 22, 2020 8:03am
Quoting joyny
{quote} HFD and THA. Candles strategy here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ow-the-candles Read my comments in that thread. I made some adjustments.

THA is good but its news trading strategy so its not very scalable. They cant really handle big money. But overall its one of the best strategies.

HFD on the other hand completely crashed in the last 8 months or so. It seems like it only worked in certain market conditions and now that the market has changed, the strategy is dead. Not sustainable
  • #1,445
  • Oct 22, 2020 8:15am Oct 22, 2020 8:15am
Yes, 3 different persons.
Two of them are working for an institutional fund, one is investing his own money.
The two working for the institutional funds trade medium/long term, the other one is a sort of scalper (really short trades, from 1 min to max 60 min, not more than10 trade per day).
The past is already gone, the future hasn't arrived yet
  • #1,446
  • Edited 11:43am Oct 22, 2020 11:21am | Edited 11:43am
Hi all!

Seems that josephcom has been gone a while, hoping all is well.



I am here very temporarily chilling out because of covid restrictions... my positions are stuck in a range again and I ve reached my scalping limit..



This is just a drop of water in the ocean to be learned and mastered, just few of the things I wish I had know or considered at my beginnings :


The market has so many faces it is hard to survive and thrive through a long period of time by only one approach. I am not saying it is impossible, but I can only speak of my experience.

Diversification should be considered on every level, from different money management approaches, to instruments traded to styles of trading and on and on. Every aspect need to be diversified.

Developing complementing approaches to every aspect of a trading plan will ensure that when one fails, the other will support it enough before it is too late. It gives the time needed for the realization that it is failing and for the possible solutions to be explored and taken. New optimization of every parameter of the given strategy might work to keep it sufficiently profitable.

Much more work was necessary, much more than I could've ever imagined. It is one thing to make it through a few months, it is another to make it through years.

Unfortunately, I cannot imagine anyone except a retired trader to have the necessary time and devotion to lay out enough pieces to really be of help. Unfortunately, a person has only one body and has to work, live.., and a forest is so much more than one tree...

But do not despair. Only in recognizing the hurdles can one find a way to leap over them, right ?

I know it is hard to accept, but for long-term success, it is all much much more complex than a single strategy, much more that what a single mind view can grasp. Maybe I am wrong. There are countless consistently profitable approaches to trading. Many roads to Rome.

But from my experiences, there are many skills needed to be developed over time also.

Learning how to scalp, intraday, swing and position trading, developing approaches when in a ranging market just as well as in trending market (in trend and countertrend), and the many other stages.

Learning to adapt to the changes. The price is not static, never treat like it is fixed. No fixed SL or TP can survive over time. Everything needs to be dynamic.

And how can one profit long-term with a strategy that does not do well when the market trends, or vice versa ? History has shown, sooner or later, that period where one strategy fails becomes much longer than anticipated. Complement one with the other, at the very least.

Learn backtesting to develop, forward testing simultaneously.

Take the many hours necessary every day and for as many months as needed to study all the while demo and simulation trading.

Go through every single position possible of the minimum 15 years (regular optimization will be necessary for some strategies). Of course, scalping for example, you can find enough occurrences in the last couple of years, but I am speaking of a global approach.

Remembering that the more a pattern repeats itself the more valid it is.

I have often wasted so much time and effort focusing on very few trade setups, convinced it was enough, only to be beaten right and left by the market with movements I had never had encountered in what I thought was enough back and forward testing.

Focusing on the tree, forgetting the forest.

If a pattern has not been observed several hundred, or better, several thousand occurrences, throughout enough time to have encountered the different stages that that instrument has had, it is likely not worth pursuing.

Maybe like trying to write a sentence with only 2 letters of the alphabet.

Develop an instinctive reaction to each possible reaction the price has in the face of your strategies.

Learn to enjoy losing trades. Some of the most profitable strategies have over 60% losses. I have learned to love losing, because I know what is going on now, in the moment.

I needed to forget high-leverage. To forget high risk trading. Yes, with a plan, it is possible to have success, but one day, everything changes so fast for such high risk trading to adapt early enough. On the long run, it will cause more trouble than the 50 or so % you will have taken out every month before it crashes and keeps on crashing.

Anyways, just my two cents to all of you who are willing to go all the way.

If anything here has sparked any helping idea in anyone s mind, it was worth the only time I have for this. Sincerely sorry to not have the second body to share.

Good luck, love and peace to everyone everywhere
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #1,447
  • Oct 22, 2020 12:05pm Oct 22, 2020 12:05pm
Maybe all trading systems have some shelf life and final expiration date. Or they work only some of the time. You can have perfect system for this month and another system for the next month. Maybe you have to flip the systems all the time? Maybe it is a cyclical thing and all about adaptation?
But how do you even determine these things? I mean, life is too short to do this type of big data research "manually" or by observation. You can spend 10 or 20 years without any results. Even automated backtesting is way too slow as a method to find good systems.

You need something else. You need the power of Artificial Intelligence to achieve what you want! It does not have be a high level AI. I think Low level is enough for this application. But it needs good calibration. I imagine that some special purpose build neural networks combined with cloud computing can do the job quite fast. If it's even possible to create sustainable trading algorithm as some set of rules the AI should be able to find these combination of rules almost immediately. Depending on the hardware and the amount of data it could take a a few hours or a few days once you have it working. How hard can it be?

I actually find it strange that nobody here is talking about it. I read many topics in the forum but I don't see discussions about using cutting edge technologies. Everyone is stuck with the old ways. Looking at charts, indicators and such.... But clearly this is not the way to go. Statistics say 95% losing rate. So clearly you are doing it wrong.
We should use high technology on our side. Maybe people still don't even know how advanced we are?

The knowledge is out there! These days you can find open source all over the place. Multi purpose code ready for adaptation... And cloud computing for research is already super cheap (relatively speaking). I mean you can rent a supercomputer with 30 000 cores for a few hundred dollars per hour. Maybe you can even find a way to get it for free through some university project or something like that.... Many people waste this kind of cash on a daily basis trading hopeless systems. So why not spend it on something productive instead?

Let's talk about this. Come on, where are all the geeks? Where are the smart guys? Is this forum dead or what?
  • #1,448
  • Oct 22, 2020 12:43pm Oct 22, 2020 12:43pm
yes, advanced technology can help a lot in testing .but making the strategy is up to you, it is the result of your own skills.
  • #1,449
  • Oct 22, 2020 1:08pm Oct 22, 2020 1:08pm
Quoting tiborf71
yes, advanced technology can help a lot in testing .but making the strategy is up to you, it is the result of your own skills.
Yes, but this is not what I'm talking about.

There is a huge difference between USING available high technology and MAKING new high technology from scratch.

In our case we don't have to make completely new technology. We can use what is available with some adaptation.

Come on, look around ! Any 200$ Chinese smartphone can learn to recognize your voice and your face and your fingers. It knows your proximity and location, it can count your steps and so on....all completely automated. Search engines can predict your next search......The neural networks are basically everywhere around you. Working day and night hidden in the background.

How hard can it be to make all this tech into some AI trader?
Are chart patterns more complicated than faces, and voices and geo coordinates?
  • #1,450
  • Oct 22, 2020 1:22pm Oct 22, 2020 1:22pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} Yes, but this is not what I'm talking about. There is a huge difference between USING available high technology and MAKING new high technology from scratch. In our case we don't have to make completely new technology. We can use what is available with some adaptation. Come on, look around ! Any 200$ Chinese smartphone can learn to recognize your voice and your face and your fingers. It knows your proximity and location, it can count your steps and so on....all completely automated. Search engines can predict your next search......The neural...
I find it very likely that market opportunities and interconnections have long been analyzed by high-performance computers.
without results, unless you’re obsession a big boy with great potential.
  • #1,451
  • Oct 22, 2020 1:39pm Oct 22, 2020 1:39pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
The neural networks are basically everywhere around you. Working day and night hidden in the background. How hard can it be to make all this tech into some AI trader? Are chart patterns more complicated than faces, and voices and geo coordinates?
Have made some primitive "AIs" (Neural Networks) EAs... can download one here and play arround. It's not self-learning... but trainable EA.

Self-learning would mean implement in EA self-optimization - that's MT5 v2 - you have to build all Strategy Tester functionality in that EA to accomplish that.

In the end, everything anyway comes to statistics. Neural Networks EAs find patterns that the human eye can't see. But they still are patterns with statistics. So the problem still stays that past patterns performance does not guaranty the future.

But yes you are right that there should be a bunch of EAs running and some mix and "trade the balance line" idea and so on. For example, run 100 various EAs on a demo account and wait when some combinations (3 to 10 EAs) drawdown is -X%, then turn on copy to live account (only those set of EAs) - all this based on some 10 years past observations (optimizations/backtests). Huge work for analysis but it can be done.
  • #1,452
  • Oct 22, 2020 1:50pm Oct 22, 2020 1:50pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} Have made some primitive "AIs" (Neural Networks) EAs... can download one here and play arround. It's not self-learning... but trainable EA. Self-learning would mean implement in EA self-optimization - that's MT5 v2 - you have to build all Strategy Tester functionality in that EA to accomplish that. In the end, everything anyway comes to statistics. Neural Networks EAs find patterns that the human eye can't see. But they still are patterns with statistics. So the...
So how do you trade now?

What happened with your research? Did you give up? Maybe you should try to implement stage 2.
  • #1,453
  • Oct 22, 2020 3:21pm Oct 22, 2020 3:21pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} So how do you trade now? What happened with your research? Did you give up? Maybe you should try to implement stage 2.
Have 90 various EAs runing on 3 brokers 9 live accounts now. In process of developping PHP & MySql system to manage those EAs and implement copy logic. For now its possible to upload backtests with data and make various shyntheyic assets from that. A lot of work still needed - connect to live EAs and calculate automated packages in various combinations then automate copy turn on/off etc

Here some screens of my EAs managing system...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2020-10-22-23-17-52-258_com.android.chrome.jpg Size: 211 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2020-10-22-23-20-21-364_com.android.chrome.jpg Size: 288 KB
  • #1,454
  • Oct 22, 2020 3:46pm Oct 22, 2020 3:46pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
Maybe all trading systems have some shelf life and final expiration date. Or they work only some of the time. You can have perfect system for this month and another system for the next month. Maybe you have to flip the systems all the time? Maybe it is a cyclical thing and all about adaptation? But how do you even determine these things? I mean, life is too short to do this type of big data research "manually" or by observation. You can spend 10 or 20 years without any results. Even automated backtesting is way too slow as a method to find good...
You are talking about something you don't fully understand(market).
You are talking high praise you haven't fully tested for enough period of time.
Or, you are just here to lure traders you can convinced and take advantage of them by...
1,
2,
3,
4,
5, fill in the blanks.
6, etc,etc.. plenty of ways to make money outside trading. Lol
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,455
  • Oct 22, 2020 4:14pm Oct 22, 2020 4:14pm
Uhh no.

Tasks:

1. I'm looking for mathematical and statistical proof that past performance IS indicative of future results.
2. I'm looking for mathematical and statistical proof that the market is not 100% random.

Result:

1. Past performance is not indicative of future results. (No proof)
2. The markets seems completely random. (No proof)

Standby.

Solution:

Searching......


ERROR 404!
  • #1,456
  • Oct 22, 2020 9:06pm Oct 22, 2020 9:06pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
Uhh no. Tasks: 1. I'm looking for mathematical and statistical proof that past performance IS indicative of future results. 2. I'm looking for mathematical and statistical proof that the market is not 100% random. Result: 1. Past performance is not indicative of future results. (No proof) 2. The markets seems completely random. (No proof) Standby. Solution: Searching...... ERROR 404!
You are correct, no proof needed.
Well almost, the markets are 95% random with the 5% of moves are tradable.
If you wait for all the erratic moves to clear, you may find your edge.

Lastly you ask for proof yet you haven’t bothered to do any hard work on statistics and price movements.
I did and was rewarded
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,457
  • Edited 4:09am Oct 23, 2020 3:44am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting RickM
{quote} You are correct, no proof needed. Well almost, the markets are 95% random with the 5% of moves are tradable. If you wait for all the erratic moves to clear, you may find your edge. Lastly you ask for proof yet you haven’t bothered to do any hard work on statistics and price movements. I did and was rewarded
No proof needed? Really?
Ok, 5% of the moves are tradable. How do you find these moves without proof?
How exactly you know which moves belong to the 5% and which to the 95%?

Look, without proof you are telling me that gambling on uncertain events is the way to go?
No wonder everyone is losing like crazy.

No proof = no win! You don't have to be an expert to see it. It's common sense.

According to science technical analysis is BS and the market is random.
However, this it yet another opinion, and again I don't see the proof!
WHERE IS THE PROOF?
I want to see the formula or the method which proofs that the market is random or not.
I search the internet everywhere and still no proof.
So, clearly someone is talking BS. Or maybe everyone is talking BS.

This FX thing turns out to be very funny business.
Supposedly it's the largest market in the world. Everyone and their mother is trading it...... Yet nobody knows how it works. And nobody knows for sure if its all random or not.
What kind of BS story is that!?
  • #1,458
  • Oct 23, 2020 4:26am Oct 23, 2020 4:26am
when you’ve tried almost everything, almost all the strategies and things still don’t work.
well then you start to believe that the market can only be random.
  • #1,459
  • Oct 23, 2020 4:49am Oct 23, 2020 4:49am
Quoting tiborf71
when you’ve tried almost everything, almost all the strategies and things still don’t work. well then you start to believe that the market can only be random.
Yes. So far all secondary evidence points to random market. But there is no solid proof.
I also see another huge problem!
The evidence shows that most strategies are not profitable. Maybe only 1% are profitable. Or even 0.01% or less.
But everyone clams they have some profitable strategy. This does not add up. It means that everyone is trading the same or similar strategy because as we know the winning strategies are very limited in numbers.

Nothing adds up here. Nothing. This market does not make any sense at all.
  • #1,460
  • Oct 23, 2020 5:06am Oct 23, 2020 5:06am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} Yes. So far all secondary evidence points to random market. But there is no solid proof. I also see another huge problem! The evidence shows that most strategies are not profitable. Maybe only 1% are profitable. Or even 0.01% or less. But everyone clams they have some profitable strategy. This does not add up. It means that everyone is trading the same or similar strategy because as we know the winning strategies are very limited in numbers. Nothing adds up here. Nothing. This market does not make any sense at all.
You can still manage randomnes with statistics. Random process can't go in straight way very long time without reversals. Always fluctuations around median. When you know that with risk/reward ratio 4/3 there are on average 60% profitable trades in 10 years history and trades count more than 700 then you can build signal copy logic and turn on it when drawdown on signal account is X%. All that needs to be analysed with backtests.. and findout best params and conditions.
0 traders viewing now