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I'm up to something (I think)

  • #21
  • Oct 9, 2020 3:13pm Oct 9, 2020 3:13pm
An update on the GBP/CHF trade from yesterday, I’ve had the close trade indicator tell me to close it so that’s what I’ve done. It ended up slightly in profit so can’t complain. The way the indicator I’m using works there will be another opportunity soon on that pair so now we have to wait. I’m still managing the other 2 I posted about yesterday.
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Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #22
  • Oct 11, 2020 5:33pm Oct 11, 2020 5:33pm
Ok so I’ve put a new trade on GBPJPY this morning. I had to wait till the spread settled down after the market open. It’s half the lot size of others I’ve put on recently due to the exchange rate of the my account to the GBP on top of the size of the stop for GBPJPY. Still hanging in there with the other 2 I had open. They have been open 2 and 3 weeks respectively. Leaving this half to do it’s thing and opening the possibility of that rare big move in your favor is one of the major factors of the system being profitable.
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Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #23
  • Oct 12, 2020 6:12am Oct 12, 2020 6:12am
Hello
I have a strategy to identify the trend, the entry point, the exit.
But I do not have secondary (confirmation) entry.
What do you suggest about this?
  • #24
  • Oct 12, 2020 7:40am Oct 12, 2020 7:40am
I don't want to be an idiot who only criticizes. I read a lot of things about indicators, price action, trade systems in 5 years. Too many books and expensive courses, for nothing. I tried swing trade, daytrade, scalping... Used statistic analysis and other advanced math studies. In short, I will explain what I learned...

1) You need to understand that market work in waves - (Dow and Elliott said something like that).
2) A primary wave are formed with secundary waves - (Fractal behaviour).
3) An uptrend is a sequence of ascending peaks and valleys, a dowtrend is a sequence of descending peaks and valleys, and consolidation is everything that doesn´t fit in uptrend and downtrend. If you know how to spot higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows - you learned 50% you need to be profitable.
4) A peak forms a resistance, and a valley forms a support.
5) Supports and resistances aren´t lines!!!! They are zones.
6) In uptrend, buy near supports, in downtrend, sell near resistances. That is the other 50% you need to achieve 100% profitability. It seems easy? No it isn´t. Because people usually trade breakouts, using support/resistance lines and not support/resistance zones. These people, in breakouts will end most of the time selling low and buying high. You need to buy low and sell high, not the inverse!!!
7) To identify trends, look at bigger timeframes. To identify entries, look smaller ones. If D1 is uptrend and H1 is downtrend, keep an eye on H1 to buy.
8) Indicators are good to scan for trades. Not for entries.
9) Before going real, learn in demo accounts...
  • #25
  • Oct 12, 2020 8:57am Oct 12, 2020 8:57am
Quoting AllanF
I don't want to be an idiot who only criticizes. I read a lot of things about indicators, price action, trade systems in 5 years. Too many books and expensive courses, for nothing. I tried swing trade, daytrade, scalping... Used statistic analysis and other advanced math studies. In short, I will explain what I learned... 1) You need to understand that market work in waves - (Dow and Elliott said something like that). 2) A primary wave are formed with secundary waves - (Fractal behaviour). 3) An uptrend is a sequence of ascending peaks and valleys,...
This nothing but a general brief and precise summary of what trading is all about
  • #26
  • Oct 12, 2020 1:38pm Oct 12, 2020 1:38pm
Break even stop loss was hit on the USDJPY over night so I’m out of that trade for the initial 1xATR TP. Doesn’t look at this stage like there will be any trades to put on or take off at the close of the candle today so will more than likely be another day of sitting on my hands!
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Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #27
  • Oct 12, 2020 1:50pm Oct 12, 2020 1:50pm
Quoting mahanfx
Hello I have a strategy to identify the trend, the entry point, the exit. But I do not have secondary (confirmation) entry. What do you suggest about this?
Hi Mahanfx, have you manually backtested what you have and if so what sort of results are you getting?
Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #28
  • Oct 12, 2020 1:57pm Oct 12, 2020 1:57pm
Quoting AllanF
I don't want to be an idiot who only criticizes. I read a lot of things about indicators, price action, trade systems in 5 years. Too many books and expensive courses, for nothing. I tried swing trade, daytrade, scalping... Used statistic analysis and other advanced math studies. In short, I will explain what I learned... 1) You need to understand that market work in waves - (Dow and Elliott said something like that). 2) A primary wave are formed with secundary waves - (Fractal behaviour). 3) An uptrend is a sequence of ascending peaks and valleys,...
Hi AllanF, there I literally infinite ways to read and act on the market. In this thread I’ve created I’m documenting my thoughts and trades and helping people who want to give this method a go to build their own custom system that works for them. I’ve been at this a long time with little success and I always said when I got some I would pay it forward because I know how hard it is. You can 1000% be profitable doing what you mentioned but it’s not for me. I wish you all the best.
Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #29
  • Oct 13, 2020 3:00pm Oct 13, 2020 3:00pm
So no new trades today. The CHFJPY trade is looking like another break even depending on whether I get an exit signal soon or not. The GBPJPY trade has gone against me so we will see what happens there over the coming days.
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Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #30
  • Oct 13, 2020 8:29pm Oct 13, 2020 8:29pm
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Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #31
  • Oct 13, 2020 9:55pm Oct 13, 2020 9:55pm
Quoting ads213
{quote} Hi AllanF, there I literally infinite ways to read and act on the market. In this thread I’ve created I’m documenting my thoughts and trades and helping people who want to give this method a go to build their own custom system that works for them. I’ve been at this a long time with little success and I always said when I got some I would pay it forward because I know how hard it is. You can 1000% be profitable doing what you mentioned but it’s not for me. I wish you all the best.
I am just trying to explain what really worked for me. I use indicators to find trades, but not use them to enter, to place SL or TP. Why? because this approach didn't work for me. Not saying it will not work for you.

I am not criticizing your approach. It is a clever one...an indicator to find a trend, 2 indicators to confirm entry and ATR to decide where to place SL. It remembers me Dick Diamond's 80/20 strategy in his book Trading as a Business. According to him, he beated market for more than 40 years... but he uses 3 to 5 indicators to confirm entry... and a fantastic money management

I use a different approach. I identify the trend in a larger timeframe, and go to smaller ones looking for counter-trends.

I use a modified zigzag indicator. This indicator uses moving averages crossovers to identify the trend, support and resistance zones. If trend is up in D1 and down in H1, a break in downtrend price structure in H1 signals a possible buy. I tried to find an indicator able to catch this. Oscillators' divergences (MACD, awesome oscillator and SlowRSI were the best) work in some situations, but not always. But Olivier Seban's Supertrend indicator did a fantastic job!

About ATR, it is an undervaluated indicator, IMO. Because it does not show a trend, and people don't understand how it is very useful. But Supertrend is an indicator that uses ATR and shows a trend! Give it a chance.

I hope you can go ahead and I wish you can develop a winner strategy.
  • #32
  • Oct 13, 2020 10:50pm Oct 13, 2020 10:50pm
Quoting AllanF
{quote} I am just trying to explain what really worked for me. I use indicators to find trades, but not use them to enter, to place SL or TP. Why? because this approach didn't work for me. Not saying it will not work for you. I am not criticizing your approach. It is a clever one...an indicator to find a trend, 2 indicators to confirm entry and ATR to decide where to place SL. It remembers me Dick Diamond's 80/20 strategy in his book Trading as a Business. According to him, he beated market for more than 40 years... but he uses 3 to 5 indicators...
I think the best takeaway from that is everyone needs to explore the world outside of stock standard indicators that come with the MT4 platform. There are websites that have them for free and ones that cost money, there are millions on trading view. How did you discover Seban’s Supertrend out of interest?
Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #33
  • Oct 13, 2020 11:41pm Oct 13, 2020 11:41pm
Has anyone changed their candles to just all black/white depending on your background? It was suggested to me on a podcast a while back so I gave it a try. It’s been that way ever since and i’ve never looked back. The reasoning is that you can’t have that subconscious bias you can have when you have colored candles. Anyone else had an experience with this?
Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #34
  • Oct 13, 2020 11:59pm Oct 13, 2020 11:59pm
Quoting ads213
Has anyone changed their candles to just all black/white depending on your background? It was suggested to me on a podcast a while back so I gave it a try. It’s been that way ever since and i’ve never looked back. The reasoning is that you can’t have that subconscious bias you can have when you have colored candles. Anyone else had an experience with this?

no, never crossed my mind...weird, have no idea what I'm looking at
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Get the Lag out
  • #35
  • Oct 14, 2020 12:13am Oct 14, 2020 12:13am
Quoting ZeroLag
{quote} no, never crossed my mind...weird, have no idea what I'm looking at {image}
That’s the idea I’m pretty sure! You can clearly still see the highs and lows if that’s the way you trade the chart naked like that but in areas where you might see a red candle amongst greens etc you don’t get any bias one way or another.
Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #36
  • Oct 14, 2020 12:36am Oct 14, 2020 12:36am
Quoting ads213
{quote} That’s the idea I’m pretty sure! You can clearly still see the highs and lows if that’s the way you trade the chart naked like that but in areas where you might see a red candle amongst greens etc you don’t get any bias one way or another.
I use OHLC charts...
  • #37
  • Oct 14, 2020 12:51am Oct 14, 2020 12:51am
Quoting AllanF
{quote} I use OHLC charts...
With or without colors?
Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #38
  • Oct 14, 2020 1:17am Oct 14, 2020 1:17am
Quoting ads213
{quote} I think the best takeaway from that is everyone needs to explore the world outside of stock standard indicators that come with the MT4 platform. There are websites that have them for free and ones that cost money, there are millions on trading view. How did you discover Seban’s Supertrend out of interest?
If you want to go somewhere, you need to learn. How can someone use an indicator without understanding it?

The biggest problem for beginners is: they are unable to understand the basics.

If you are unable to understand the wave and fractal nature of prices, if you don't know how to read price structure (higher highs/higher lows, lower highs/lower lows), you will not understand how indicators works.

Unfortunately, all indicators have weakness. Oscillators works better in ranging markets, moving average crosses in trending ones. Oscillators can stay in overbought or oversold condition for long periods in trending markets. Supertrend works well in trending markets too...

Attachment g
That is how I find a trend. I just draw my HHHL or LHLL. And I didn't find any indicator to show precisely this. Zigzags can make this work easier...
Attachment g
I don't use stock zigzag... but a modified version. It changes direction when 2 moving averages cross... the major advantage: it doesn't repaint...
  • #39
  • Oct 14, 2020 1:27am Oct 14, 2020 1:27am
Quoting ads213
{quote} With or without colors?
OHLC in black/white charts... and EMA 5(RED) and EMA 20(BLUE) here is all I have in my cellphone chart
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I trade using cellphone. A VPS send me alerts about my trading conditions. When conditions are met, I open cellphone and look price structure in different timeframes.
  • #40
  • Oct 14, 2020 1:30am Oct 14, 2020 1:30am
Quoting AllanF
{quote} If you want to go somewhere, you need to learn. How can someone use an indicator without understanding it? The biggest problem for beginners is: they are unable to understand the basics. If you are unable to understand the wave and fractal nature of prices, if you don't know how to read price structure (higher highs/higher lows, lower highs/lower lows), you will not understand how indicators works. Unfortunately, all indicators have weakness. Oscillators works better in ranging markets, moving average crosses in trending ones. Oscillators...
Mate to be honest it think you’re getting way off the point of my thread and what I’m trying to do. There is threads for your type of posts but this is for people who want to see and learn what I have worked out not you coming over the top of mine and others comments with a lecture on you’re method. Maybe start your own thread? I know you’ve only been on FF for less than 2 days so it might be new to you but yeah probably this isn’t the one for you.
Trade what you see, not what you think
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