I'm up to something (I think)

Yes, in addition to testing, I also trade on a real account.
I am looking for secondary approval and filtering of some transactions.
My current account link:
https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/811800

Trade update just now the GBPJPY trade has closed at the stop loss. 1.7% loss on this one.

Sorry, but I am really trying to understand what are you trying to do here...

I looked some of your trades - and I can't understand them. Your Stop Loss are bigger than your Take Profit size. Unless you have a very high winning ratio - it does not make sense to me.

When someone is developing a trade system, they have only 3 questions to answer:
Winning ratio% = WR
Reward/risk ratio = RR
Risk per trade % = BET

With these 3 answers I can find the positive expectancy of any strategy using the formula: PE = WR × RR × BET - (1-WR) x BET

If your winning ratio is 40%, RR is 2 and your BET is 1%
PE = 40%×2×1% - 60%×1%
PE = 0.2%
If you trade 100 times, you will get 100 x 0.2% = 20% return

After 25 trades, I know your PE is 0.08%, in 50 days. Using this data, I can find a monthly return of 1.2%. It is too early to say, but maybe you have something. Why?

Because I tried and failed so many times trying to find this holy grail using indicators... in my dreams a profitable expert advisor using indicators and earning money without human action?

I got near that using Dick Diamond's templates... something you are trying to do now. You are in the first step of Dunning- Kruger effect, exactly where I was too, in 2016. But became overconfident and lost money. And I realized that an EA can't read market sentiment... only price structure and price action can tell you something about.

The problem with Dunning-Kruger effect: to understand something you have to suffer all the pain in the learning curve. In the despair valley, when you are almost giving up, is when you start to know how to apply everything you learned. In his book, Dick Diamond tell a good story about his despair valley in 60's, when he lost 70% of his trading account.

Good luck, because this road is long... and at the end... for me was a dead one. But is useless to say that. You must discover by yourself

No new trades today. CHFJPY trade looking like it’s heading to break even. There’s a lot of hanging in there with this strategy with the 1 x ATR wins keeping you afloat covering the loss like the GBPJPY one I took yesterday. When the run happens though it all pays off.

No new trades again today. Looks like one setting up for Monday maybe. Still no exit signal on the CHFJPY. Other than that it’s very peaceful using my strategy at the moment. Better than losing in the chop I guess!

Second CHFJPY trade ended up closing at break even today. No open trades over the weekend so that’s not a bad thing. See what next week brings!

No new trades to start the week although a couple of pairs are starting to setup. I’m not sure who or if anyone is reading or getting any value out of this. I realise that I haven’t given away the system and the stats are very new so everyone would naturally be sceptical. I never claimed it was perfect but a great method to build a system and I’m just going to honestly report my results from day 1. The reasoning for not laying out the actual system is I strongly believe I will never work out using someone else’s system. If you take the time to build and test your own system that is where it turn a corner for you. I have put a couple of people onto the right path who have PM’d me so feel free to do that if you have any questions. I do feel like putting it out here on the thread will help everyone who wants to have a read too.

IDEA: So here’s an idea for an indicator to establish a trend. OTT (optimized trend tracker) displayed here on Trading View is an indicator that flips between long and short. It can be adjusted and has different options for what lines you would like to see and whether you want to have a signal displayed when it flips. If you want to start to try and build something try backtesting this indicator for 6 months on the daily chart on a pair you like. Every time it flicks to buy do a 1*ATR TP and a 1.5*ATR SL and reverse for a sell signal. See what results you get, you’re only looking for positive return at the moment so you have something to build off.

Just did a quick 6 months on AUDJPY and I got 4 wins 0 losses for 355 pip gain, I used the original settings with the “show support line” ticked. On those stats it might be better to do 12 months so you make sure you aren’t just getting a good run with this 4 trades. There is a lot more trades to be had once you get your entry indicators over the top of that but gives you a direction to trade in that you know is solid.

New BUY trade this morning on NZDJPY. There seems to be a few more pairs setting up nicely. Let’s see how we go!

UPDATE on the NZDJPY trade on put on yesterday. I got the exit signal so I had to close it down for a small loss. I guess when people see a 1.5 x ATR SL and a 1 x ATR as a TP they dont really see the full picture which I hope everyone sees from these trades. This one I closed not even 1/4 of the way to the SL cutting my losses early and when you pick up a runner on the winning side you only take off half at 1 x ATR and the other one could end up way in your favor.

NEW TRADE on the GBPCHF. I’ve been watching this one for over 2 weeks waiting for the entry signal. Let’s hope it was worth it. Thing you always have to remember is if you are following the system that you have backtested manually and you’ve seen the results and you aren’t deviating from the plan then win, lose or break even you have done the right thing putting the trade on.

UPDATE: The GBPCHF trade has hit the SL. This was a 1.5% loss. All pairs seem to have had a strong run in a direction in the past 12 hours. This could be a good thing if we can hop onto a trend that goes a decent distance. Time will tell I guess!

Take heart, GBP went on an insane bull run today.

Thanks mate, yeah its frustrating waiting 2 weeks for that to end up happening but it is what it is.

No new trades today. I got a long signal on the entry indicator for AUDCHF however the confirmation indicator wasn’t confirming that so it’s a no trade. The way I trade my system there is no leeway for that. I know there is a grace period of 3 candles (I think from memory) on the confirmation indicator in the NNFX method but for me it’s a straight no trade and move on.

No new trades for the open today. While I don’t avoid trades due to news it’s probably a good position to be not be carrying trades just before the US election. I’ve said that now I’ll probably have entry signals all over the place by the end of the week!

Does anyone else that trades technical keep an eye on the news events? My logic is I backtested through totally oblivious to news so that’s how I have to trade going forward.

IDEA: Someone I’ve been going back and forward with via message tossing a few ideas around has said I should check this indicator out. It’s called Renko Levels. Here it is displayed using the default settings. I’m going to leave it on the charts to see what it looks like when I enter a trade using my system to see if it helps in any way. The benefit of keeping all my buys and sells on the chart from my backtesting is I can quickly reference how that indicator sits when that trade was entered and whether it’s helpful or would have kept me out of a bad trade for example. Obviously without backtesting you can’t know for sure but it helps give a quick reference that’s for sure.

So today there was no new trades again and for some reason the time out of the market is really bothering me today. I looked for trades I looked at other time frames, not so much to trade just so I could be involved I guess. I could look at trading the same system on the H4 timeframe but I wouldn’t consider trading that unless I went through the whole backtesting process and I don’t feel like I’m in the right mental space to invest that time and take that on at the moment. I just want to be real when I’m posting with how I’m feeling. I know a lot of others feel it and I know there is a lot of BS out there that can make you feel like your failing but we just have to hang in there. I’ve done the hours of backtesting, I know it works. I’m just going through a little dark period I guess.

IDEA: Full week with no trades. Damn, haven’t done that ever I don’t think! Hopefully some volatility will come back next week and we can get back to some normality. Does anyone else keep an eye on the EVZ for volatility? For those who don’t know it is the CBOE Eurocurrency volatility index. While I don’t use it as a rule for entry or exit it does give an indication of whether things are just flat or whether they are really moving overall which should mean that you’ll see some good runners. It’s not a great picture but as you can see between August and no it’s been very very flat. With those big wicks to the upside we’ve seen the last couple of days it could mean we are going to start seeing something happen soon. If you go back on it and check the pairs you trade on the dates when it was somewhere near the 20’s you’ll see that it was really moving.