USD - Something to Think About

Quoting cesarpoli

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From: Down River Trading(if you don´t wanna this text here, tell me and I will remove it)

Let's talkabout it !

May 1, 2007

1. 35 years of dollar weakness is ending in 2007. Since August 15, 1971 we have been plagued by a long cyclical and emotional free for all thanks to Richard M. Nixon. It has now ended officially on April 30, 2007. Beginning in May of 2007, a new long term cyclical US Dollar bull market is beginning. Historical? Yes. Opportunity or Lunacy? You decide.

A 35 year trend will all of a sudden halt this month and reverse? Come on...The market has already factored in the dollar's weakness.

1. When you look at a long term chart of the EURUSD, what do you see? Let me ask it differently. What do most see? An uptrend of course. A paralyzed US Dollar that is "doomed". Books have been written, articles, hedge funds formed. Jump on board. It is easy to get wealthy. Just short the dollar. Even Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are doing it. When I look at a long term chart this is what I see. In 2004, a new trend was established. The real trend. In 2005, all the late comers to the party jumped on board to get their share of the wealth. They have enjoyed a nice run back to the levels of the original new multi-year trend. They are all trapped. Soon they will begin to panic. Fear will set in and some big money will realize their mistake. The real trend will now resume from the original ground swell where it began in earnest. It will continue for at least 30 years.

Tell us your name. In 30 years we will look it up and see whether or not your are a centi-billionaire.
My crystal ball must be broke!

1. If the dollar is "toast", then it is priced in the market NOW?

Its all factored in....but im not entirely sure what you mean here.

1. The USDJPY always leads the way. Draw a simple trend line from 1971 to present across the downtrend.

Ok, I see.

1. Do you really think the biggest economy in the world is just going to wither away. Give me a break? This is what the media wants you to believe. It sells books, causes Forex accounts to be opened and makes people look like experts for a short time. Do you realize how capital flows in the US compare to the so called emerging markets? One click of the mouse can dwarf some of them. Do your research. Don't be lazy.

I dont think its just going to wither away. But it will be taking a beating from emerging markets. Also pick up a history book and notice a pattern with any and ALL dynasties/regimes/kingdoms/political systems or call it whatever you want. Nothing lasts forever. I will eat my shoe if you name anything that has stood the treatment of time.

1. Is a British Pound really worth 2 times a US Dollar. If you believe this, why?

This point sort of contradicts what you said earlier. If its worth 2x the dollar, then that is the price the market has made for it and that the dollar is infact still getting weaker.

1. Will the countries who have purchased long maturity US bonds want the dollar to weaken?

I agree here...they dont; but there's a huge difference between hoping for an outcome and the reality. In case you havent noticed, there is a gradual shift occuring towards the Euro now.

1. What happened to the twin deficit media push? I'll tell you what happened, they were wrong. Why aren't they admitting it? What will happen to the current predictions now that we are off that kick?

Care to elaborate what the twin deficity media push is?

1. Is the European Union really set to soar economically. They certainly have wonderful employment numbers now don't they. Wages and Labor costs are not an issue now are they? Who is leading who? Germany? No comment.

Pretty sure I read somewhere that the Euro markets have recently passed the US markets in equity value.

1. Just a 10% correction in the US dollar will yield 1300 points to the downside. EURUSD at 1.2150 by the end of 2007. Maybe more. Even if all the experts are right, does a healthy market need to correct or can it just go parabolic forever. Is 10% a good correction? 15%? 20%? Has any market in history not corrected?

???

1. A North American Dollar? Mexico, Canada and the United States.

???

1. Who has the largest Oil reserves in the World? Do you know this answer? Why does it matter?

What happens once it runs out....?

1. What is the purpose of Gold? Is it traded like a natural resource? Why is this important? Why would anyone want to pay $2000 an ounce for a worthless metal? Greed sells doesn't it. Why wouldn't we just find something else of value instead of Gold. No. Wait I'm wrong. Let me carry my gold around with me everyday. On the planes. So convenient. What a wonderful store of value. No...let me keep it in my vault at my house and I will just tell people that I have a lot of it or bring them to the bank to show them. No, No....I will just show them on paper or the internet. Now what is this? Ah yes! It is something just like the dollar paper. Fiat statements of my gold. Give me a break. What a bunch of malarky this gold thing is.

Agree here....

1. Why don't all the economists and analysts talk about all their wrong predictions?

Why not just not bother listening to them?

1. Is China really ready to carry the torch? Look closely below their publicized middle class growth. What do you find? Are you counting on all these lower class people to push them out the top of the volcano? Good luck, they can barely feed themselves. But they will buy up cell phones and create business right? Just like the homeless in America are doing right? If you take away the lower class in China, what is left from a numbers comparison perspective? Do this and compare the numbers to the US.

Umm..yes. There's always going to be a lower middle class and there's always going to be the rich upper class. Its the middle and upper classes that will be shifting the tide. Not sure what rock you live under, but very multinational corporation is running there to rack up profits. Millions of Chinese will be buying their first new car, cell phones and tvs. National Geographic once had an article that mentioned an 80% leap in car sales in the last few years.
Also, I think you have the lower class mixed with the downright homeless.
'Do this and compare the numbers to the US.' Since you clearly did the number crunching, can you please share them with us?

 

1. How about Japan? That's like saying the US is going to win the World Cup soon.Well not really, the US actually has a chance.

Again...???? What point are you trying to make?

1. Is World peace coming? Why have things been so quiet for so long? CNN is struggling to find anything that is exciting.

The calm before the storm perhaps? Lets put things into perspective Here's a list of things we have to look forward to this century:
Dwindling oil supplies. Result: US economy suffers greatly due to rising prices. So does the rest of the world.
War over energy sources: again, who will be leading this?
Rising number of nuclear states.
Global warming: devastating world economies.
Mass migrations of people from affected parts of the world.
Not to mention overpopulation, starvation, poverty and overburdened resources.

How exactly do you see world peace out of this? I'm pretty sure you live on planet earth too.

1. The US Housing Market is collapsing right? From what level? All markets correct naturally. Real Estate is a bad investment in the US right? Why would anyone want to own property in the Untied States? Again, define collapse for me. Media, Media, Media. Yep, we are just collapsing here in the US. Going down the drains. It is a struggle for me. Freedom, High Income, Public Services, Shops, Restaurants, Lifestyle all within a few miles of my home. Fire Department will come automatically if I need them. My kids are in public or private schools.I have a lot of choices on this one too. All my kids have cell phones and their own cars. My kids have jobs and they are still in school. Yes, we are collapsing here in the US. I better leave now if I want to survive. Where should I go? China. They have roads there right? For all my cars.

Probably the most ignorant statement you have posted here. Yes China is still backward in many areas....but seriously, Chinese cities are reaching alpha city levels. China wouldnt even be hosting the 2008 olympics if its infrastructure couldnt handle it. Think about that...
It doesnt matter if your sons/daughters have your $8 an hour jobs making coffee and flipping burgers while they are in school. How are they going to find REAL jobs if they are all going to the Chinese/Indians etc? The US is losing its competitive edge pretty fast. More people graduate with degrees in sports science than in engineering.
Compare that to the hundreds of millions of eager Chinese and Indians who have have better suited degrees.

1. If there is a thing such as "smart money", why doesn't smart money just work for themselves in an office in the islands somewhere? It is smart to be an emplyee of a bank right? To work for smart money employers. Smart Money is an Oxymoron.

So I guess you would be the 'dumb money' that makes millions? Its called Smart Money for a reason

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Quoting cesarpoli

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Here are a few of my relevant predictions for the next serveral years
US Dollar Index goes to 150
AUDUSD to .40
EURUSD to .85
USDCHF to 3.50
USDJPY 252
USDCAD to 1.75
GBPUSD .62
Gold to 280 or much lower
Oil to $25
US 30 Year Bonds to 30

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Here are a few of my relevant predictions for the next serveral years
US Dollar Index goes to 150
AUDUSD to .40
EURUSD to .85
USDCHF to 3.50
USDJPY 252
USDCAD to 1.75
GBPUSD .62
Gold to 280 or much lower
Oil to $25
US 30 Year Bonds to 30

Quoting x2012

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This thread seems more and more satarical now

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