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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #550,181
  • Sep 25, 2020 12:01pm Sep 25, 2020 12:01pm
Quoting Moty
{quote} {image}CLOSE UP{image}
Moty, I have the same count...but it doesn't mean we don't catch extension in 5th wave...I always caution myself and constantly remind myself that anther pattern plays out behind the "scene"...I don't want you to change your mind and force my view on you but lately, I've been seeing here " tons of sure things" not necessarily from you Moty...Stay cool, stay vigilant...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #550,182
  • Sep 25, 2020 12:42pm Sep 25, 2020 12:42pm
Gatel masuk lagi..... took a short again.. hold till monday...
Trade with prediction = witch with her visions lol
  • #550,183
  • Sep 25, 2020 12:50pm Sep 25, 2020 12:50pm
Quoting HBN08
usdixback to 94.600 anybody?
waiting...might not pass 94.700
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  • #550,184
  • Sep 25, 2020 1:32pm Sep 25, 2020 1:32pm
It's like 2675 has spiders on it
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #550,185
  • Sep 25, 2020 1:32pm Sep 25, 2020 1:32pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
Almost everyone took their profits. Said "good bye", "have a nice weekend"... and now what?!? We are left here. Alone. In these hopeless times: The rate is flat... Moty is regrouping... Georgie is watching what will happen next... I am in a draw-down! And my bottom is in pain...


Laughing my ass off
  • #550,186
  • Sep 25, 2020 1:36pm Sep 25, 2020 1:36pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
Almost everyone took their profits. Said "good bye", "have a nice weekend"... and now what?!? We are left here. Alone. In these hopeless times: The rate is flat... Moty is regrouping... Georgie is watching what will happen next... I am in a draw-down! And my bottom is in pain...
Very creative
Dream, believe,fight for it and you will achieve and NEVER EVER GIVE UP!
  • #550,187
  • Sep 25, 2020 1:47pm Sep 25, 2020 1:47pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Buyers fear not and stick to this second lower buy all target stays the same.
It's good to buy at support levels Georginson
Having said that, I think we might travel a smidge lower next week before a real bounce
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #550,188
  • Sep 25, 2020 1:52pm Sep 25, 2020 1:52pm
Quoting dimitricss
Gatel masuk lagi..... took a short again.. hold till monday...
waduh , are u open bro short till monday ?

ngeriii klo gw
  • #550,189
  • Sep 25, 2020 2:27pm Sep 25, 2020 2:27pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Guys, I have entered buy trades on the retrace back to my round number 1.27500 and daily open. I have full buy confirmation signals from a 4hr point of view. Trade safe Cheers. {image}
Well damn you big Boyz, You suckered bears today. There was no big news. Are you unwinding because you got it wrong? A sucker punch from a retail trader
Cheers
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Trade to trade another day
  • #550,190
  • Sep 25, 2020 2:40pm Sep 25, 2020 2:40pm
Quoting Notme3232
{quote} waduh , are u open bro short till monday ? ngeriii klo gw
Money management bro...


#Gw juga ngeri ngeri,, iseng iseng aje,, loss yah cut,, profit yah beli marlboro.. hehehe ✌✌
Trade with prediction = witch with her visions lol
  • #550,191
  • Edited 3:31pm Sep 25, 2020 3:19pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Well damn you big Boyz, You suckered bears today. There was no big news. Are you unwinding because you got it wrong? A sucker punch from a retail trader Cheers {image}
Still looks risky Wavegarrick.
Looks like may close below 2750
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #550,192
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:33pm Sep 25, 2020 3:33pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} Still Iooks risky Wavegarrick. Looks like may close below 2750
Thanks Trumps,
Yes sure, have closed some of my buy trades and will leave some locked in. A weekly close below 1.2750 sure a good thing for bears. I do have reservations though because I do see a cyclic correction in the making, but of course, I could be wrong.

We shall see next week
Have a great weekend
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #550,193
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:47pm Sep 25, 2020 3:47pm
Quoting FraterRedox
{quote} 100%?
yep, +45p
  • #550,194
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:49pm Sep 25, 2020 3:49pm
ALL OUT!!!
took that loss with a smile .
the lesson learned and i got the chance to live another day and fight .
the euphoria prevent me to close it earlier , and almost wipe my account of 500$.
at the peak , my floating loss today stood on 350 $ .
so i can call it a good day , sometime you loss some to win big in the end
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yes yes yes
  • #550,195
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:53pm Sep 25, 2020 3:53pm
Quoting tito5615104
{quote} Thank you for kind reply, but I mean that one have 3 lines like moving average color change maked blue and red , I didn't mean HeikenAshi
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MA-in-Color_wAppliedPrice_v3.ex4   6 KB | 312 downloads
yes yes yes
  • #550,196
  • Edited Sep 26, 2020 8:34am Sep 25, 2020 4:07pm | Edited Sep 26, 2020 8:34am
W/e analysis

* A bearish week overall. [The greater probability identified in last week’s w/e analysis played out.]
* Unusually, 3 consecutive sub 30day adr days on weds, thurs, and fri. These daily candles have essentially been indecision candles but the later 2 have had a higher hi and a higher close.
* Price travelled 118pips - 88% of it’s 30 day adr on friday, 291pips this week – 108% of the 13 week awr. So far in September – 807pips – 135% of the 3mth amr.
* 20/50/100 ema’s close the week crossed up on 5min, neutral on 15min, 30min, 1hr & 4hr are crossed down, dly & wkly are neutral, and mthly remains crossed
down...so a mixed picture.
* Strong bounce up from fri’s 2688 lo – price reaching 50% of Friday’s 2805-2688 fall - 2nd time today price pullback has achieved this level after a fall.
* A bearish Mthly candle close is by far the greater probability.

Wkly
The wkly candle closes as a bearish engulfing of last week’s bullish weekly candle. No fractal print is created by the close of this weekly candle but when it comes it will come most likely @ a HL, or L if it goes below the last HL at 2252 . The t/f therefore remains in a general PA uptrend right now. Near-term potential rbs on this t/f remains that prev sw hi zone to 2669/38.2% of 1411-3482. Near term potential res on this t/f remains that prev wkly sw hi to 3482.

Dly
Friday’s daily candle closes as a doji-esq type candle. No fractal print is created by it’s close. Price on this t/f remains in a classic PA downtrend with 2 x LH’s, and a LL @ this week’s 2675 lo. There was a decisive downside breech of the asc t/line on this t/f that joined 1411 with 2762. The desc channel however remains intact. Near-term pot res on this t/f is the Prev sw hi to 3007 – the 2nd LH, and near-term pot supp is the zone to the LL @ 2675.

4Hr
The last 4hr candle (gmt+3hrs broker time)closes as a bullish engulfing candle and creates a fractal swing L on this t/f at friday’s 2688 lo. This t/f (& 1hr) is in a range between 2805 (fri’s Hi) and the Wkly lo at 2688, although fri’s hi could more accurately be called a false upside b/o of the 2675-2780 range. The bulk of the price action in this range is in the 2697-2785 area…so perhaps this can be considered the ' true ' range ? The last few fractal prints bear this 4hr range out, being a HL, HH, HL, HH, L below last 3 x HL's. The desc channel on this t/f remains intact.

Near-term pot res on this t/f is that prev sw hi zone up to said 2805/38.2% 3007-2675 whilst the near-term pot supp is the prev sw lo zone down to said 2688, then the prev sw lo zone to 2675 which is co-existant with a prev dly sw lo zone to the same 2675 lo.

Conclusion/likely near-term direction
More difficult to read than last week I think and my conclusions come with less certainty than then – but with the decisive asc dly t/line breech to the downside, the still intact Dly classic PA downtrend, and the still intact desc dly and 4hr channels, the bears remain in overall control. These factors as well as the wkly bearish engulfing candle close suggests more downside is to come, and this seems to be the greater probability at some point. The last 4hr bullish engulf close after a strong upside bounce from Fri’s 2788 lo and the last 3 x dly candles (which could be read either way but thurs and fri's have had a higher hi and close,) does however suggest there may well be more upside before any resumption of the daily downtrend ? There has already been an 807pip move down from the 3482 hi and the deeper price goes - the bigger the chance of a larger pullback/correction this coming week, This month's pip range from hi-lo which is already at 135% of the 3mth amr adds a further degree of probability to that scenario.

4hr, dly and wkly charts below (in that descending order.)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #550,197
  • Sep 25, 2020 4:11pm Sep 25, 2020 4:11pm
Quoting Headland
W/e analysis * A bearish week overall. [The greater probability identified in last week’s w/e analysis played out.] * Unusually, 3 consecutive sub 30day adr days on weds, thurs, and fri. * Price travelled 118pips - 88% of it’s 30 day adr on friday, 291pips this week – 108% of the 13 week awr. So far in September – 807pips – 135% of the 3mth amr. * 20/50/100 ema’s close the week crossed up on 5min, neutral on 15min, 30min, 1hr & 4hr are crossed down, dly & wkly are neutral, and mthly remains crossed down...so a mixed picture. * Strong bounce up from...
The chart reflects reality, the price at 2700 reflects good enough reward to risk to buy on a no-deal brexit outcome, the daily candle today is indecisive, closing near the open. The technicals will not predict the next moves, the news will.
  • #550,198
  • Sep 25, 2020 4:13pm Sep 25, 2020 4:13pm
it can go either way
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close up
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yes yes yes
  • #550,199
  • Edited 4:40pm Sep 25, 2020 4:19pm | Edited 4:40pm
Quoting xRedStaRx
{quote} The chart reflects reality, the price at 2700 reflects good enough reward to risk to buy on a no-deal brexit outcome, the daily candle today is indecisive, closing near the open. The technicals will not predict the next moves, the news will.
The technicals are not predictive, nor is ' the news ' - they can sometimes give us the greater probability, and the market can and does react to 'news' - that's all. We don't have to predict or know what is going to happen next to make money - we just play an edge, whatever it is. Technicals are just a graphical reflection of all that is known about all the fundie/macro factors affecting and discounted into the prevailing current price. Price, as you rightly imply reacts to the underlying sentiment created by these fundie/macro factors which is why even though the majority here are technical traders, it is useful to follow them and understand them, not least because they can give us hi-probability trading opportunities, using a technical entry.

Re your point about the dly candle - I agree, - in fact the last 3 x daily candles have been somewhat indecisive and the 2nd two have had a higher high and close.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #550,200
  • Sep 25, 2020 5:11pm Sep 25, 2020 5:11pm
Quoting Moty
{quote} {file}
Thanks again, that I was mean
good luck
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