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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,081
  • Sep 24, 2020 5:33am Sep 24, 2020 5:33am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} All we need is to break the wedges and we are off to the races. It could be pretty explosive. EU is also in a wedge. DXY has reached the top of the channel. I expect the down move soon. {image}
I have 96 as my target on DXY. EU @ 1.15
  • #8,082
  • Sep 24, 2020 5:41am Sep 24, 2020 5:41am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I have 96 as my target on DXY. EU @ 1.15
If you're expecting 96, then GBPUSD will fall down to 1.26xx, no?
Lost....
  • #8,083
  • Sep 24, 2020 5:42am Sep 24, 2020 5:42am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDUSD, I went short on the TL break, will add if it bounces
AUDUSD, it almost reached my tp @ 0.70 without a single retracement. looking at the US indices, this show is not over yet. I'll sell the rallies. But you will need a large SL. I'll update when we get them
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1 924.png Size: 41 KB
  • #8,084
  • Sep 24, 2020 5:48am Sep 24, 2020 5:48am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} If you're expecting 96, then GBPUSD will fall down to 1.26xx, no?
DXY is more like EU than GU (because of how it's weighted). GU sometimes does its own thing. GU daily remains bearish as long as 1.30 hold.
  • #8,085
  • Sep 24, 2020 6:00am Sep 24, 2020 6:00am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I have 96 as my target on DXY. EU @ 1.15
I am beginning to doubt that EU will drop much more. My main reasoning for the EU drop was the huge probability that it was going to test the 13 year old trendline on the back side. It is already in the process of doing so now (See picture). I now feel we may not drop more than 1.1600/1.1630
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Weekly.png Size: 438 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,086
  • Sep 24, 2020 6:02am Sep 24, 2020 6:02am
USDCAD R zone 1.34
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 924.PNG Size: 110 KB
  • #8,087
  • Sep 24, 2020 6:08am Sep 24, 2020 6:08am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I am beginning to doubt that EU will drop much more. My main reasoning for the EU drop was the huge probability that it was going to test the 13 year old trendline on the back side. It is already in the process of doing so now (See picture). I now feel we may not drop more than 1.1600/1.1630 {image}
yea, its probably a good time to take some profit. But I'm looking at the weekly chart and it looks very bearish if closes like this. I still want it to go to that box.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU w24.PNG Size: 69 KB
  • #8,088
  • Sep 24, 2020 6:16am Sep 24, 2020 6:16am
EU, possible short setups
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 924 short.PNG Size: 85 KB
  • #8,089
  • Sep 24, 2020 6:34am Sep 24, 2020 6:34am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yea, its probably a good time to take some profit. But I'm looking at the weekly chart and it looks very bearish if closes like this. I still want it to go to that box. {image}
Hi shahab agree with you
  • #8,090
  • Sep 24, 2020 6:42am Sep 24, 2020 6:42am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yea, its probably a good time to take some profit. But I'm looking at the weekly chart and it looks very bearish if closes like this. I still want it to go to that box. {image}
Also, FX option markets starting to add downside risk permium.
  • #8,091
  • Sep 24, 2020 6:56am Sep 24, 2020 6:56am
SPY: looking very bearish
EURUSD, can accelerate lower if the US indices goes lower sharply from here.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPY 924.PNG Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily 924.png Size: 37 KB
  • #8,092
  • Sep 24, 2020 7:50am Sep 24, 2020 7:50am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, triangle bottom (H4) The image from ESSENTIAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS by LEIGH STEVENS {image} {image}
USDCAD, long trade update, I moved my sl to (+120) below daily low. From here it's either straight up or down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily 924.png Size: 31 KB
  • #8,093
  • Sep 24, 2020 7:59am Sep 24, 2020 7:59am
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD, daily chart remains bullish above 0.66, but there is a possible bearish wedge pattern in progress. I'm already short NU as posted before. The M30 chart shows a possible short entry around 0.6765- 0.6775 with SL above 0.6785. TP @ 0.64 (RRR 18:1) {image} {image}
NZDUSD, short trade, I took some proft (+250) as we reached an important S zone @ 0.65. I'll be looking to add if we get a retest of the broken neckline @ 0.66
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily 924.png Size: 41 KB
  • #8,094
  • Sep 24, 2020 8:31am Sep 24, 2020 8:31am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, possible diamond pattern Edit: I think it looks more like a diamond pattern than H&S {image} {image}
GU, it's a diamond pattern, but it has to break above that former S turned R @ 1.2775. Lets see if bulls can do it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 924.png Size: 38 KB
  • #8,095
  • Sep 24, 2020 9:33am Sep 24, 2020 9:33am
GU, possible long setup @ 1.2707, sl (15), tp 1.39
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU M30 924.PNG Size: 76 KB
  • #8,096
  • Sep 24, 2020 10:22am Sep 24, 2020 10:22am
This thing really looks like it wants to break out higher. Inverted H&S and almost complete wedge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY,H4.png Size: 371 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,097
  • Sep 24, 2020 10:28am Sep 24, 2020 10:28am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, daily, saucer pattern {image}
USDCHF, long trade, possible R @ 0.9350 fib 0.32
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFDaily 924.png Size: 40 KB
  • #8,098
  • Sep 24, 2020 10:28am Sep 24, 2020 10:28am
EU closed 3 H1 dojis in a row. Now it is trying again to go north. The Stochastic fan is all bunched up, which usually means explosion in the opposite direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - H1.png Size: 368 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,099
  • Sep 24, 2020 10:29am Sep 24, 2020 10:29am
Quoting Alorente
This thing really looks like it wants to break out higher. Inverted H&S and almost complete wedge. {image}
yea, it looks like a good pattern. thanks for sharing.
  • #8,100
  • Sep 24, 2020 10:34am Sep 24, 2020 10:34am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, possible long setup @ 1.2707, sl (15), tp 1.39 {image}
GBPUSD, long trade. I was trying to be surgical with the entry. I'll be moving my sl to b/e soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30 924.png Size: 39 KB
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