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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,001
  • Sep 21, 2020 7:58am Sep 21, 2020 7:58am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, pending sell @ 0.73, sl 20, tp @ 0.68
AUDUSD, I'll be watching these levels for a possible short setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 921.PNG Size: 100 KB
  • #8,002
  • Sep 21, 2020 8:10am Sep 21, 2020 8:10am
USDCAD, triangle bottom (H4)

The image from ESSENTIAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS by LEIGH STEVENS
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1 921.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: triangle bottom.PNG Size: 163 KB
  • #8,003
  • Sep 21, 2020 8:25am Sep 21, 2020 8:25am
AAPL, history repeating itself?

The image from ESSENTIAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS by LEIGH STEVENS
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AAPL 921.PNG Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: parabolic.PNG Size: 122 KB
  • #8,004
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:15am Sep 21, 2020 9:15am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, daily shows a topping pattern, whether it's a broadening formation or a complex or simple H&Sh (as Al suggested). Structural S @ 1.1750-1.17. {image}
EURUSD, this has been long overdue.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily 921.png Size: 36 KB
  • #8,005
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:23am Sep 21, 2020 9:23am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, triangle bottom (H4) The image from ESSENTIAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS by LEIGH STEVENS {image} {image}
USDCAD, long trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1 9211.png Size: 39 KB
  • #8,006
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:30am Sep 21, 2020 9:30am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, I'm watching this TL, there's a good chance it breaks to the downside. will update {image}
AUDUSD, I went short on the TL break, will add if it bounces
  • #8,007
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:34am Sep 21, 2020 9:34am
GU, it may get S @ 1.2775, but I am not looking to go long. Today is the day that you sell everything
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 921 3.png Size: 44 KB
  • #8,008
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:07am Sep 21, 2020 10:07am
Quoting shahab8b
This is my framework on market conditions/cycles. I am providing GU as a example of my thought process. I see GU in a consolidation between 1.30 and 1.3180. I expect a breakout and trend continuation, but that's just one possible outcome. If it breaks 1.30 and goes lower, I'll think of it as a correction or even a short term downtrend. {image} {image}
I posted this on market cycles/conditions a while back. The idea is nothing new. But it's important to understand the practical applications. The main reason that most trading systems fail is that they are designed to perform in a certain market condition/cycle. for example, trading S/R works well in a range market, but it's terrible for a vertically trending market. A trend following method (e.g. MA cross) works well in a trending market but fails miserably in range/irregular market.

So the idea is that, as a discretionary trader, you identify the market cycle/condition, and then pick the right trading method for that market. That being said, the reason I highlighted "vertical move" as special case of trend is due to the fact that you can’t find a good method to trade it. You either should get in before the move starts, or simply close your eyes and jump in and hope for the best.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 921 vertical.PNG Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: market cycles 2.png Size: 35 KB
  • #8,009
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:23am Sep 21, 2020 10:23am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDUSD, I went short on the TL break, will add if it bounces
AUDUSD, it might get S on any of these levels. I'll be looking to short the rallies.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1 921.png Size: 44 KB
  • #8,010
  • Sep 21, 2020 5:00pm Sep 21, 2020 5:00pm
EURUSD, daily did not close below S zone 1.1750, 1.17. The neckline of the pattern (H&Sh) remains intact. I still have a bearish bias as long as it remains below 1.19 and the TL. Possible short setups on H1 (1.1800, 1.1825)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 921 d.PNG Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 921 u.PNG Size: 90 KB
  • #8,011
  • Sep 21, 2020 5:04pm Sep 21, 2020 5:04pm
i am tipping a pullback into the zone will good for another sell..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Sep 21 22-01-11.png Size: 74 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #8,012
  • Sep 21, 2020 5:11pm Sep 21, 2020 5:11pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, daily did not close below S zone 1.1750, 1.17. The neckline of the pattern (H&Sh) remains intact. I still have a bearish bias as long as it remains below 1.19 and the TL. Possible short setups on H1 (1.1800, 1.1825) {image} {image}
I need remind myself to be careful of shorting this time.. quarter end and month end coming up in 7 trading days...
  • #8,013
  • Sep 21, 2020 5:18pm Sep 21, 2020 5:18pm
Up close with GU on 1hr TF, the market is printing some interesting nice Price action.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Sep 21 22-14-24.png Size: 54 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #8,014
  • Edited 6:28pm Sep 21, 2020 5:25pm | Edited 6:28pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I need remind myself to be careful of shorting this time.. quarter end and month end coming up in 7 trading days...
yea, shorting EU close to 1.1750 is like playing with fire. You need to get in at a higher level, move sl to b/e and let it run. I might be wrong, but this is a topping pattern in my book, no matter how you look at it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU round.PNG Size: 119 KB
  • #8,015
  • Sep 21, 2020 5:29pm Sep 21, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting Roszey
Up close with GU on 1hr TF, the market is printing some interesting nice Price action. {image}
haha, Roszey, you read GU price action like a book!
  • #8,016
  • Sep 21, 2020 5:31pm Sep 21, 2020 5:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} haha, Roszey, you read GU price action like a book!
Learning from you Senior.
Le$$ I$ More
  • #8,017
  • Sep 21, 2020 5:47pm Sep 21, 2020 5:47pm
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, I'm watching this TL, there's a good chance it breaks to the downside. will update {image}
AU, the TL is broken. will be looking for possible short setups as long as it remains below the TL and R @ 0.7325
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU h4 921.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #8,018
  • Sep 21, 2020 6:32pm Sep 21, 2020 6:32pm
QQQ, M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: QQQ 921.PNG Size: 61 KB
  • #8,019
  • Sep 22, 2020 2:25am Sep 22, 2020 2:25am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AU, the TL is broken. will be looking for possible short setups as long as it remains below the TL and R @ 0.7325 {image}
I´m short since the break. You can´t count on a rebound happening with this risk off environment. It looks like DXY wants to go straight to 94.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,020
  • Sep 22, 2020 2:28am Sep 22, 2020 2:28am
I´m long EurCad. Look at this beautiful Cup with Handle pattern forming. It could be good for 1000 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD,Daily.png Size: 337 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
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