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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,961
  • Sep 18, 2020 6:00am Sep 18, 2020 6:00am
USDCAD, watching this for a possible long setup @ 1.3125-1.3150, alternatively spikes can be sold @ 1.3250
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,962
  • Edited 6:27am Sep 18, 2020 6:16am | Edited 6:27am
GBPUSD, went short @ 1.30 round number as a routine play. It's gonna break it, but not a good place to go long atm. that box proved to be tough to break. better wait to see the stucture of the breakout first before going long
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU 918 box.PNG Size: 90 KB
  • #7,963
  • Sep 18, 2020 6:26am Sep 18, 2020 6:26am
NZDUSD, I have a pending sell @ 0.68, sl 15 , tp 100
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD 68.PNG Size: 70 KB
  • #7,964
  • Sep 18, 2020 7:43am Sep 18, 2020 7:43am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, went short @ 1.30 round number as a routine play. It's gonna break it, but not a good place to go long atm. that box proved to be tough to break. better wait to see the stucture of the breakout first before going long {image} {image}
I'm going with Coreg's wave B completion at around 1.3208.
I don't think we'll see 1.2695 for a while.....
Lost....
  • #7,965
  • Sep 18, 2020 7:55am Sep 18, 2020 7:55am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} I'm going with Coreg's wave B completion at around 1.3208. I don't think we'll see 1.2695 for a while.....
that's a wise decision. it all comes down to your RRR.
  • #7,966
  • Sep 18, 2020 7:59am Sep 18, 2020 7:59am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, coiling for a possible breakout. I remain bearish against 106.50 {image}
USDJPY, short trade, it has reached a significant S zone 104-104.5. let's see how it plays out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,967
  • Sep 18, 2020 8:10am Sep 18, 2020 8:10am
shahab8b, atm is a toss-up play...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.18.30M.png Size: 91 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.18.daily.png Size: 86 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,968
  • Sep 18, 2020 8:21am Sep 18, 2020 8:21am
Quoting Coreg2004
shahab8b, atm is a toss-up play... {image} {image}
your interpretation is better than what I have. I couldn't figure out whether it's an expanding triangle (abcde) as wave B or it's making an ungly looking inverse H&Sh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30 918 .png Size: 44 KB
  • #7,969
  • Sep 18, 2020 8:26am Sep 18, 2020 8:26am
Quoting Coreg2004
shahab8b, atm is a toss-up play... {image} {image}
what do you think about the EU intraday? this is what I got, but I don't like it. it'll take me out of my short position
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5 918.png Size: 44 KB
  • #7,970
  • Sep 18, 2020 11:13am Sep 18, 2020 11:13am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} what do you think about the EU intraday? this is what I got, but I don't like it. it'll take me out of my short position {image}
Here is what I have. I am short with a 1.1725 TP. I have EU dropping to 1.1520 / 1.1600 area in the next few weeks to complete the retracement to the 38.2% Fib of the move up. After that, it should be smooth sailing to the north.

This move is almost identical to the Sept. 2017 drop to the 38% fib. Even the angle of the channel is the same.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-H4.png Size: 170 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,971
  • Sep 18, 2020 11:37am Sep 18, 2020 11:37am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} what do you think about the EU intraday? this is what I got, but I don't like it. it'll take me out of my short position {image}
shahab8b, nothing changed on the daily chart, all trades have been taken off of 30M, yesterday I almost went banana because I entered the trade in a consolidation zone...ufff, today I took the brak from this pair...after abc pattern my target is 127.2%, but not always is reached so I watch closely 78.6% levels of both legs...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 09.18.30M.png Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 09.18.daily.png Size: 89 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,972
  • Sep 19, 2020 8:54am Sep 19, 2020 8:54am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Here is what I have. I am short with a 1.1725 TP. I have EU dropping to 1.1520 / 1.1600 area in the next few weeks to complete the retracement to the 38.2% Fib of the move up. After that, it should be smooth sailing to the north. This move is almost identical to the Sept. 2017 drop to the 38% fib. Even the angle of the channel is the same. {image}
Hi Al, thanks for the chart. I got stopped out on the first attempt, but I went short again as the setup was still valid. I agree. There is a good chance it starts going lower as long as it remains below those TLs and R @ 1.19. It should be a quick trip to 1.16 if 1.17-1.1750 S zone fails.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30 919.png Size: 47 KB
  • #7,973
  • Sep 19, 2020 9:05am Sep 19, 2020 9:05am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, nothing changed on the daily chart, all trades have been taken off of 30M, yesterday I almost went banana because I entered the trade in a consolidation zone...ufff, today I took the brak from this pair...after abc pattern my target is 127.2%, but not always is reached so I watch closely 78.6% levels of both legs... {image} {image}
Thanks for the chart Coreg. So you were trading from the long side from 1.1750. That was the best play. I completely missed that.
EU is range-bound atm. The smart play has been fading the rallies above 1.19 and buying the dips sub 1.1750. Let's see how this range breaks out. I'm more on the bear side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 919.PNG Size: 57 KB
  • #7,974
  • Sep 19, 2020 9:11am Sep 19, 2020 9:11am
Gold, this triangle pattern is 95% done. The break out will be interesting. The question is whether you count it as wave 4 and wave 5 to the upside or a wave B and another leg down as wave C??
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  • #7,975
  • Sep 19, 2020 9:17am Sep 19, 2020 9:17am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} SPY, another down leg can help DXY {image}
SPY, following up with the predicted count. looking to buy sub 320
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,976
  • Sep 19, 2020 9:26am Sep 19, 2020 9:26am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, went short @ 1.30 round number as a routine play. It's gonna break it, but not a good place to go long atm. that box proved to be tough to break. better wait to see the stucture of the breakout first before going long {image} {image}
GU, I think the rejection @ 1.30-1.3035 R zone (former structural S of the daily uptrend) was quite significant. For any upside chance, it has to firmly break above that R zone. The bias remains bearish against 1.30
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,977
  • Sep 19, 2020 9:33am Sep 19, 2020 9:33am
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD, I have a pending sell @ 0.68, sl 15 , tp 100 {image}
NZDUSD, my pending order was missed by 5 pips, so I went short after I saw the price falling along with falling US indices.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDM30 919.png Size: 37 KB
  • #7,978
  • Sep 19, 2020 9:44am Sep 19, 2020 9:44am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, I'm entertaining this ascending broadening pattern {image} {image}
EURUSD,
Weekly COT data: EUR long 179K vs 198K long last week. Longs decreased by 19K

I'm still faving this broadening formation. Daily remains bullish above 1.17 and 1.1750 S zone. So we need a clear break below the S zone to confirm the reversal.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-18-2020_203-44-51_20PM.png_0.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 919 201.PNG Size: 65 KB
  • #7,979
  • Sep 20, 2020 2:13am Sep 20, 2020 2:13am
On GBPUSD, 1.30 looks like a strong resistance, and support of 1.295 has been broken. I think a retest is of 2950 should a good price to sell from again.
A new SW is formed on the price and has not been tested.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Sep 20 07-02-40.png Size: 62 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,980
  • Sep 20, 2020 8:41am Sep 20, 2020 8:41am
NZDUSD,
daily chart remains bullish above 0.66, but there is a possible bearish wedge pattern in progress. I'm already short NU as posted before. The M30 chart shows a possible short entry around 0.6765- 0.6775 with SL above 0.6785. TP @ 0.64 (RRR 18:1)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD 920.PNG Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD H1920.PNG Size: 128 KB
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