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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #549,341
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:43am Sep 21, 2020 9:43am
Taking my first trade of the month tomorrow.
Hopefully if i see my setup.
Patience.....
  • #549,342
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:44am Sep 21, 2020 9:44am
Quoting Almo2312
{quote} turn to some more nicely gains {image} Cheers and very green week to all

You are an Animal!

Maybe you are in the wrong tread?

Here is one, exactly for you: double... each day!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #549,343
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:46am Sep 21, 2020 9:46am
Great day
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  • #549,344
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:46am Sep 21, 2020 9:46am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I factor in monthly into my trading then weekly comes next... Lowest this month is 1.2670 area and I have strong equity to withstand 1.2370 area... So risk reward favours buying after 700/800 pips drop from yearly high.
I'd consider reversing your strategy because the monthly isn't bullish ,or the weekly
if weekly breaks it won't stop.
Show me the bullish read on the monthly, with a chart
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #549,345
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:48am Sep 21, 2020 9:48am
Quoting L.m
{quote} I don't know what the Eu will do, they might decide to play hard, but the amendment to me seems a u-turn by Johnson. In every democracy the Parliament is sovereign and may vote a law that overrides an international treaty at any time, with all the consequences that this choice brings of course.
The fact that now this possibility will be written in a law is just a way for Johnson not to admit the defeat pretending the weapon is still armed. For me it's a completely different scenario by the Government having the power to do the same thing,...
You are correct of course pointing out that a parliament may override international treaty at any time. But Johnson's aim right now is not to pass the NI clauses (at the moment, they won't pass Lords anyway). It is twofold: 1) to legitimise the idea that when things go really bad, we can get rid of the (parts of) Withdrawal Agreement; I think he did well here; 2) force EU either make concessions, or (more likely) file a lawsuit / end the negotiations, which would make it easier for Johnson to blame EU when talks collapse.

On whether EU would follow on their ultimatum: they probably have little choice, if they want to maintain credibility. Here is the text of the statement: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres...tement_20_1607. It is clear that EU is demanding that UK government withdraws the bill, and it it not relevant how Parliament votes. (As introduction of the bill already constitutes the breach of the agreement). Further thoughts on this by former top UK diplomat Ivan Rogers: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...says-1.4356233
  • #549,346
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:49am Sep 21, 2020 9:49am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I factor in monthly into my trading then weekly comes next... Lowest this month is 1.2670 area and I have strong equity to withstand 1.2370 area... So risk reward favours buying after 700/800 pips drop from yearly high.

I agree with you but the class width generally do change sometimes. and that is where there are always failures. If you look at the maximal you must allow some fs(factor of safety) so that you can get the best range values and allow a class width for any unforeseen. There is always a one degree chance for uncertainties that way the probabilities are well smoothed. It doesn't have to go too deep, I cant withstanding watching that.
Keep the Lights on then you can catch the rise from the dark.
  • #549,347
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:50am Sep 21, 2020 9:50am
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yes yes yes
  • #549,348
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:51am Sep 21, 2020 9:51am
Quoting Bones
{quote} I'd consider reversing your strategy because the monthly isn't bullish ,or the weekly if weekly breaks it won't stop. Show me the bullish read on the monthly, with a chart
This month is expected to end bearish... Meanwhile I trade the retracement of at least 200 pips from whichever low it makes... So this current trade will be exited at 1.2920 area...
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #549,349
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:56am Sep 21, 2020 9:56am
...back at desk updating charts.....another leg down as the pullback from 2834 failed again at the 1st upside hurdle - that prev 1hr/4hr sw lo zone=prev supp=pot rbs 2864-77...nice 10 and 15min bearish hidden div set-ups there to get short again...and the 2nd leg down today makes a decisive downside breech of the major daily asc t/line mentioned earlier that joins 1411 with 2762 - which now comes into view - a prev 1hr/4hr/dly/minor wkly sw lo zone down to that 2762 lo. Wkly S1 circa 2786 - depending on your broker timings. Dly S3 is circa 2757. The current lo is in a prev 1hr sw lo zone that extends to 2790.

Today price has exceeded 138.2% downside ext of fri pip range(!) - a very unusual event indeed, and is @ 137% of the 30 day adr with the 175 pip move so far.... & already @ 64% of the 13 week awr !

4hr is below.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #549,350
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:57am Sep 21, 2020 9:57am
Quoting ricmaj
{quote} I agree with you but the class width generally do change sometimes. and that is where there are always failures. If you look at the maximal you must allow some fs(factor of safety) so that you can get the best range values and allow a class width for any unforeseen. There is always a one degree chance for uncertainties that way the probabilities are well smoothed. It doesn't have to go too deep, I cant withstanding watching that.
To me maximum range expected this September is 820 pips...

1.3481 - 820 pips = 1.2661. so any price seen at 1.2850 to 1.2720 area is a buy for me.

The earlier buy taken at 1.2789 did give me 170 pips at 1.2959 area, then I switched to sell making use of weekly distance at 1.2950 and 1.3000 last week also cashed out over 200+ combined pips...

Now in long mode at 1.2838/1.2727 with minimal risk exposure.

Peace.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #549,351
  • Sep 21, 2020 9:59am Sep 21, 2020 9:59am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} To me maximum range expected this September is 820 pips... 1.3481 - 820 pips = 1.2661. so any price seen at 1.2850 to 1.2720 area is a buy for me. The earlier buy taken at 1.2789 did give me 170 pips at 1.2959 area, then I switched to sell making use of weekly distance at 1.2950 and 1.3000 last week also cashed out over 200+ combined pips... Now in long mode at 1.2838/1.2727 with minimal risk exposure. Peace.

what happens if there is a deviation?
Keep the Lights on then you can catch the rise from the dark.
  • #549,352
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:00am Sep 21, 2020 10:00am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} This month is expected to end bearish... Meanwhile I trade the retracement of at least 200 pips from whichever low it makes... So this current trade will be exited at 1.2920 area...
Ive saiid before ,you need to be careful playing with fire ,imagine if it went to the level you're willing to hold
This is how you can be caught over distance for a long time , but in ranges I guess it can work out
my main point is if it breaks down even further in this month ,like weekly just breaking the last in first few days.

There no bullish read in all probability today.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #549,353
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:04am Sep 21, 2020 10:04am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Ive saiid before ,you need to be careful playing with fire ,imagine if it went to the level you're willing to hold This is how you can be caught over distance for a long time , but in ranges I guess it can work out my main point is if it breaks down even further in this month ,like weekly just breaking the last. {image}
I have a psychological stop at 1.2640 area... This isn't crashing below 1.2650 this month. October may be different subject to Brexit development. This month risk is already 85% complete to the downside.

Note: this trade is not confined for today .. it's for price target of 1.2920 area and must close the transaction this September.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #549,354
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:07am Sep 21, 2020 10:07am
That's all for today. buyers can now struggle to get out of their buy lol what a sweet day.
  • #549,355
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:10am Sep 21, 2020 10:10am
...looks like it's been a 'risk off' day all round really.

2813-2746-2669 Prev dly then deeper wkly sw hi zone=prev res=pot rbs, and within this:
2786 Wkly S1
2778 50% 2074-3482
2776-2762 prev 1hr/4hr sw lo zone
2757 Dly R3
2740 76.4% 2511-3482
2723-16 prev minor 4hr sw lo zone with:
2722 = 61.8% 2252-3482 & 2716 = 76.4% 2480-3482
2690 38.2% 1411-3582
2684-73 prev minor 4hr sw lo zone with: 2684 = Mthly S3
Trader with an Edge.
  • #549,356
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:15am Sep 21, 2020 10:15am
Quoting Headland
...looks like it's been a 'risk off' day all round really.
I think tomorrow will be similar. This is not a teddy bear.
Markets will move to the right.
  • #549,357
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:15am Sep 21, 2020 10:15am
Quoting FraterRedox
{quote} I think tomorrow will be similar. This is no teddy bear.
it always teddy bear
  • #549,358
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:21am Sep 21, 2020 10:21am
Quoting FraterRedox
{quote} I think tomorrow will be similar. This is not a teddy bear.
I am gaining sells on the drop...

it is still a teddy bear
its just a script. join the club
  • #549,359
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:24am Sep 21, 2020 10:24am
Quoting VM.
{quote} You are correct of course pointing out that a parliament may override international treaty at any time. But Johnson's aim right now is not to pass the NI clauses (at the moment, they won't pass Lords anyway). It is twofold: 1) to legitimise the idea that when things go really bad, we can get rid of the (parts of) Withdrawal Agreement; I think he did well here; 2) force EU either make concessions, or (more likely) file a lawsuit / end the negotiations, which would make it easier for Johnson to blame EU when talks collapse. On whether EU would...
I agree with you regarding Johnson's interest in NI clauses, I think he just wants to get some concessions raising the pot, but he went too far. It's just politics, if you (BJ) play hard, I (EU) will do the same since I can't afford to lose field. But if you step back (let's not call it u-turn) I will too. And right now the amendment can be read as a step back to give the EU the chance to do the same without giving the impression to give field to the contendant.
Of course I may be misreading all the situation.
  • #549,360
  • Sep 21, 2020 10:25am Sep 21, 2020 10:25am
You think not? It's defiantly capable ,you're not wrap it in range chains George ,like ever

Quoting Georginson
{quote} I have a psychological stop at 1.2640 area... This isn't crashing below 1.2650 this month. October may be different subject to Brexit development. This month risk is already 85% complete to the downside. Note: this trade is not confined for today .. it's for price target of 1.2920 area and must close the transaction this September.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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