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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #547,821
  • Sep 11, 2020 1:14pm Sep 11, 2020 1:14pm
Quoting MarketPatrol
{quote} Are you a position trader??
For now yes, until I get a better understanding of swings within the position.

Also for some reason this reminds me of the fake dip before the slingshot.
  • #547,822
  • Sep 11, 2020 1:25pm Sep 11, 2020 1:25pm
Would be funny if market does not no through resistance but simply opens 50 pips lower on Monday. Would not bet against it.
  • #547,823
  • Sep 11, 2020 1:30pm Sep 11, 2020 1:30pm
Quoting VM.
Would be funny if market does not no through resistance but simply opens 50 pips lower on Monday. Would not bet against it.
i can see thy happening with some currencies not sure that gbp would open 50 pips below.

what I have seen over abs over again is of the market doesn’t penetrate resistance on a closing basis it will bounce off. It could bounce and retest or bounce and go in another direction.
  • #547,824
  • Sep 11, 2020 1:33pm Sep 11, 2020 1:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
GU, 1.2750-1.28 zone has served as a S/R and a swing level at times. {image}
Very interesting. I see here that famous (and rather puzzling to me at the time) move from 1.27 to 1.32 after which we dropped to 1.14. I wonder if we can see something similar; the situation now starts to remind me of March, not only in GU, but also in EU and stocks.
  • #547,825
  • Sep 11, 2020 1:45pm Sep 11, 2020 1:45pm
today it wasn't about money , but about education .
Monday will the start of a new way with a new deposit
no more channel , no more magic indicators .
just pure pa and trend .
today the system gave only 86 pips , but it only because it was a ranging day , yesterday it gave a lot .
and even 86 or 50 pips it good enough for me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1.png Size: 29 KB
yes yes yes
  • #547,826
  • Sep 11, 2020 2:01pm Sep 11, 2020 2:01pm
Quoting spatel522
{quote} i can see thy happening with some currencies not sure that gbp would open 50 pips below. what I have seen over abs over again is of the market doesn’t penetrate resistance on a closing basis it will bounce off. It could bounce and retest or bounce and go in another direction.
I have seen a gap of 40-50 pips this year, see end of January.

Agree on the second part.
  • #547,827
  • Sep 11, 2020 2:24pm Sep 11, 2020 2:24pm
Quoting shahab8b
GU, 1.2750-1.28 zone has served as a S/R and a swing level at times. {image}
...that's gotta be the chart of the week....speaks 1000 words. Thanks for posting.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #547,828
  • Edited 2:52pm Sep 11, 2020 2:40pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting spatel522
{quote} I have one long position open at 1.3200, I am long on GBP until 1.2780 is breached on a closing basis. This still seems to provide the support and without breach on a closing basis the current high can be taken out. Again its pushed against 1.2780 several times for the last two days but seems to bounce off it quickly.
In addition to Brexit saga, there are a lot of important data releases and risk events next week. If all goes in your direction -- Brexit rhetoric calmed down, UK unemployment and inflation better than expected, Fed even more dovish than usual (it that's possible), BOE less so -- I guess G/U may go back to 1.305 area, maybe even close to 1.32 (I would be surprised, though). But unless Brexit no deal threat unexpectedly comes off the table, I can't see G/U higher than that.
  • #547,829
  • Sep 11, 2020 2:49pm Sep 11, 2020 2:49pm
Yes, they want to keep the price above 1.2800 and ideally higher 1.2950 +
But looking at things....not looking that way right now
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #547,830
  • Sep 11, 2020 2:56pm Sep 11, 2020 2:56pm
Quoting VM.
Would be funny if market does not no through resistance but simply opens 50 pips lower on Monday. Would not bet against it.
I need this to happen, however I think its going up for first 2 days (Monday and Tues)...

Fingers crossed I have a sell at 1.2810 half size...
All Assets NAS100 GLD BTC AUS JPY GBP All Time Return: 19.6%
  • #547,831
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:02pm Sep 11, 2020 3:02pm
Quoting SFundamental
Yes, they want to keep the price above 1.2800 and ideally higher 1.2950 + But looking at things....not looking that way right now
Same story over and over again, people never learn it seems...not so long ago we had a strong friday bear to close below 2100...everybody was short, it opened at 2080 and everybody was laughing at bulls for even suggesting a 50 pip upmove...we went up 1400 pips...then above 3400 everyone long again...all I heard was 3700...we dropped 700 pips...now friday bear again and everybody selling the bottom. I would laugh if it wasn't so depressing to see the same shit happening every week and people doing the same mistakes!

I will expect 3100-3240 now, after everyone turned to bear.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #547,832
  • Edited Sep 12, 2020 8:31am Sep 11, 2020 3:04pm | Edited Sep 12, 2020 8:31am
W/e analysis


Weekly summary

An exceptionally bearish week for this pairing as continued potentially £ negative brexit drama and to a lesser extent covid worries continued to affect market sentiment with £ 'getting it in the neck' particularly, with this double whammy of delights.

Friday saw a relatively subdued pip range of 103 (previous day was 262!) which was 82% of the 30 day adr. The week just closed saw a 498 pip range which was 188% of the 13 week awr. So far this month 719 pips - ie 120% of the 3mth amr has been travelled by price.

All t/f's 15min - 4hr have the 20/50/100 ema's crossed down with only the daily still crossed up. Weekly's are intertwined and Monthly's remain crossed down.

In short - 1Hr and 4Hr remain in general PA downtrends whilst Daily remains in a damaged general PA uptrend with a L (not fractal yet) @ friday's 2762 lo below the last 3 x HL's of that t/f's uptrend now. An inverted bullish dragonfly doji daily candle close resulted from the day's PA.

Weekly remains in an undamaged general PA uptrend - the last real HL on that t/f is 2252 although price has exceeded 50% of that move to 3482 [2722 = 61.8% of the move,] and in fact 50% of the longer 2074-3482 move up is @/around the weekly lo. A big bearish thrust weekly candle close resulted from the week's precipitous fall. [38.2% of the entire 1411-3482 move is 2690 and 50% of it is 2446.]

Monthly remains if anything in a general PA downtrend or is ranging. A candle is not a candle until it is closed but so far looks very bearish and will probably bearishly engulf the last one (?)

Conclusion/potential near-term direction
Fundamentally next week will probably be dominated again by brexit, covid, and the Boe stuff on Thursday. The Fed's fomc announce on Weds next week is worth a mention too although Powell has pretty much 'laid out his stall' but who knows - any 'tweak' in language can have an effect on the markets. These are the known 'event risks' but there could be other unscheduled twists and turns to keep us on our toes.

As Shahab8b has shown in his charts above the potential strength of this potential rbs zone on dly/wkly (2813 -2749-2669 respectively) and the possible expanding triangle pattern on 1hr means that a further upside pullback from this area is probable. The weekly bearish close though suggests that at some point there is likely to be a downside continuation and this is highly likely if we get continued brexit malarky over the w/e or into next week - making a deal all but impossible/further covid measures here in the Uk.

Anything can happen !

Dly and Wkly charts are below, in that order.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #547,833
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:12pm Sep 11, 2020 3:12pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Same story over and over again, people never learn it seems...not so long ago we had a strong friday bear to close below 2100...everybody was short, it opened at 2080 and everybody was laughing at bulls for even suggesting a 50 pip upmove...we went up 1400 pips...then above 3400 everyone long again...all I heard was 3700...we dropped 700 pips...now friday bear again and everybody selling the bottom. I would laugh if it wasn't so depressing to see the same shit happening every week and people doing the same mistakes! I will expect 3100-3240...
Do me a favour and stick me on your ignore list - as you are going on mine.
I can't be bothered answering your nonsense
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #547,834
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:14pm Sep 11, 2020 3:14pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} Do me a favour and stick me on your ignore list - as you are going on mine. I can't be bothered answering your nonsense
Those numbers are facts, not nonsense, don't be so fragile.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #547,835
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:17pm Sep 11, 2020 3:17pm
Its not fragility...look at my posts nearly winners..
There is a reason for my views - and it has nothing to do with charts....like candlesticks
Don't reply to my posts
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #547,836
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:20pm Sep 11, 2020 3:20pm
Quoting SFundamental
Its not fragility...look at my posts nearly winners.. There is a reason for my views - and it has nothing to do with charts....like candlesticks Don't reply to my posts
First of all, that post wasn't about you, but many traders here, in general. The fact that you took it personally...maybe you saw yourself in it? No clue...
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #547,837
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:22pm Sep 11, 2020 3:22pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Same story over and over again, people never learn it seems...not so long ago we had a strong friday bear to close below 2100...everybody was short, it opened at 2080 and everybody was laughing at bulls for even suggesting a 50 pip upmove...we went up 1400 pips...then above 3400 everyone long again...all I heard was 3700...we dropped 700 pips...now friday bear again and everybody selling the bottom. I would laugh if it wasn't so depressing to see the same shit happening every week and people doing the same mistakes! I will expect 3100-3240...
If what you are saying is true - don't be depressed -be glad - there have got to be losers if there are going to be winners !
Trader with an Edge.
  • #547,838
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:24pm Sep 11, 2020 3:24pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} If what you are saying is true - don't be depressed -be glad - there have got to be losers if there are going to be winners !
I like the gang here, I don't enjoy seing others lose, unlike many others, who just wait for every bad trade to jump on people. I want everyone here to make money.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #547,839
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:25pm Sep 11, 2020 3:25pm
I'm out of here
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #547,840
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:27pm Sep 11, 2020 3:27pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I like the gang here, I don't enjoy seing others lose, unlike many others, who just wait for every bad trade to jump on people. I want everyone here to make money.

Oh stop it - I'm filling up here ! - I was speaking generally not specifically about traders on this thread ... I too don't like seeing anyone lose - particularly (some lol) of those here - but it's just a fact of trading/life. There it is.
Trader with an Edge.
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