Let's continue with my live commentary on Brexit; hope people read it, because so far, I was correctly predicting next moves.
The picture is now entirely clear. EU gave UK government until the end of the month to withdraw the bill that would contravene Withdrawal Agreement. Will UK government do that? 100% not. The bill is therefore to be discussed in Parliament next week (this is called "second reading"). Third reading, accompanied with the vote, will probably happen one week after. Assuming Commons vote for it, the bill will move to Lords, that will probably reject it. It then moves to Commons again, and if passed for the second time, will become law. At this point, all hell breaks loose, EU starts legal action against UK and stops trade negotiations, and pound sterling falls through the floor (if it did not do so until that time).
Let me make it absolutely clear.
1) EU will not withdraw the ultimatum.
2) UK government will not withdraw the bill.
So what can derail the scenario above?
1) Commons may vote against the bill. I am very sceptical about this. This will only happen if in Conservative party, there will be about 50-60 principled politicians that would vote against the government, despite very severe threats from Johnson & Co. Last autumn, Johnson purged Conservative party of almost all people with any principles. To suddenly find 50 of them would be miraculous.
2) Johnson's actions (or validity of the bill) may be challenged in Supreme Court. However, I doubt such a challenge will be successful. UK is sovereign (and always was, by the way), and it can choose to break any treaty it signed. It is very dishonourable, very reputation-damaging, it goes against all British statesmanship principles existing for hundreds of years, but it is not illegal, and this is all that counts.
3) Lords can amend the legislation, removing the very clauses that create the issue. I will have to read more about how likely this is, but I think it is probably the best chance to stop the madness.
Barring the possibilities above, I see nothing else.
So, in the words of great Bette Davis:
The picture is now entirely clear. EU gave UK government until the end of the month to withdraw the bill that would contravene Withdrawal Agreement. Will UK government do that? 100% not. The bill is therefore to be discussed in Parliament next week (this is called "second reading"). Third reading, accompanied with the vote, will probably happen one week after. Assuming Commons vote for it, the bill will move to Lords, that will probably reject it. It then moves to Commons again, and if passed for the second time, will become law. At this point, all hell breaks loose, EU starts legal action against UK and stops trade negotiations, and pound sterling falls through the floor (if it did not do so until that time).
Let me make it absolutely clear.
1) EU will not withdraw the ultimatum.
2) UK government will not withdraw the bill.
So what can derail the scenario above?
1) Commons may vote against the bill. I am very sceptical about this. This will only happen if in Conservative party, there will be about 50-60 principled politicians that would vote against the government, despite very severe threats from Johnson & Co. Last autumn, Johnson purged Conservative party of almost all people with any principles. To suddenly find 50 of them would be miraculous.
2) Johnson's actions (or validity of the bill) may be challenged in Supreme Court. However, I doubt such a challenge will be successful. UK is sovereign (and always was, by the way), and it can choose to break any treaty it signed. It is very dishonourable, very reputation-damaging, it goes against all British statesmanship principles existing for hundreds of years, but it is not illegal, and this is all that counts.
3) Lords can amend the legislation, removing the very clauses that create the issue. I will have to read more about how likely this is, but I think it is probably the best chance to stop the madness.
Barring the possibilities above, I see nothing else.
So, in the words of great Bette Davis:
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