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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #547,421
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:34am Sep 10, 2020 10:34am
If the GBP doesn't breach the 1.2780 level today this down slide will slowly come to a halt. My guess (hope) is it closes above 1.2944, but lets see how the day goes. The down slide doesn't make any sense, these's no consensus on the BREXIT deal yet. Just that they haven't signed a BREXIT deal yet, if anything this hurts EUR more than GBP because Britain owns all the ports that EU uses to export to East.
  • #547,422
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:35am Sep 10, 2020 10:35am
Quoting buddha-
add $ for long
You are still entering long , why not wait till tomorrow and then you can take a position , it pays to wait some times
  • #547,423
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:36am Sep 10, 2020 10:36am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} This is for medium term keeps... I will hold till 1.33/1.35 level except stopped out at 1.2849.
moral of the story when you're taken out, you can't ignore price & rely on any range outright.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #547,424
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:37am Sep 10, 2020 10:37am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Positives and negatives to both. Tariff's can help domestic producers and the government increase revenue however consumers and foreign producers lose out and a portion is lost through decreases in demand etc meaning tariff's result in a net loss. Good for UK business though, its just dependant on if we can specialise well enough in order to increase economic efficiency.
Who it will help, exactly?
Banks and other services? They would lose on non-trade barriers (regulation, information).
Manufacturers? They would lose big time on supply chain disruption, many will need to relocate.
Consumers? They would see higher prices and forced to buy less (and consumers are the driving force of our economy).
And all this in the time when unemployment is about to hit 15-20% and Treasury rising taxes to cope with budget.
And we have no trade deals almost with anyone.

Yes, in 5 or 10 years we can re-adjust and rise from the ashes (with this government, 10 looks closer to reality). I am sure pound would then soar. But for now, forgive my French, we are fucked.
  • #547,425
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:37am Sep 10, 2020 10:37am
Quoting Georginson
Long re entered 1.2858... extremely tight stop 1.2849
Hahaha are you still buying lol
  • #547,426
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:39am Sep 10, 2020 10:39am
Quoting spatel522
If the GBP doesn't breach the 1.2780 level today this down slide will slowly come to a halt. My guess (hope) is it closes above 1.2944, but lets see how the day goes. The down slide doesn't make any sense, these's no consensus on the BREXIT deal yet. Just that they haven't signed a BREXIT deal yet, if anything this hurts EUR more than GBP because Britain owns all the ports that EU uses to export to East.
Market participants think otherwise
Ask the dealers about it

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #547,427
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:39am Sep 10, 2020 10:39am
Quoting Bones
{quote} moral of the story when you're taken out, you can't ignore price & rely on any range outright.
He failed to admit the fact that brexit doesn’t respect prices and can even fall 700pips in an hour
  • #547,428
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:41am Sep 10, 2020 10:41am
Quoting epzero
{quote} He failed to admit the fact that brexit doesn’t respect prices and can even fall 700pips in an hour
you pissed off the longs, they are having a bad day
Make money by doing the opposite of Giveachance aka loser
  • #547,429
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:47am Sep 10, 2020 10:47am
the daily just broke its low ,but I guess its at the bottom of channel and near a tl up ,not a reliable reason to long over distance
anyway it will stay bearish under the falling line.
The weekly is highly likely to close bearish without any miracle in line with up tl
It has to recover the daily low of yesterday to even think it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 010101 GBPUSD-4-hours.png Size: 45 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #547,430
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:48am Sep 10, 2020 10:48am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Market participants think otherwise Ask the dealers about it {image}
You are right that market participants do think otherwise, that's only on a daily level. Even you know that this currency is oversold and are going to swing right back up with it (however far it goes). The only pressure point left to breach is the 1.2780, if we breach, then this high stands for a while, but that tbd still. Call me what you want but I am still expecting this will not be breached today.
  • #547,431
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:52am Sep 10, 2020 10:52am
Quoting spatel522
{quote} You are right that market participants do think otherwise, that's only on a daily level. Even you know that this currency is oversold and are going to swing right back up with it (however far it goes). The only pressure point left to breach is the 1.2780, if we breach, then this high stands for a while, but that tbd still. Call me what you want but I am still expecting this will not be breached today.
today? it would need some fat news to bring the pair another 100 pips down
or maybe some scary flash crash like it happened in the past

I'm still going within the flow

And the market participant i showed you think on a weekly level, not a daily one. It gives more strength to the move
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #547,432
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:52am Sep 10, 2020 10:52am
this is the bottom line , still bearish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1.png Size: 33 KB
yes yes yes
  • #547,433
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:54am Sep 10, 2020 10:54am
Quoting VM.
{quote} Who it will help, exactly? Banks and other services? They would lose on non-trade barriers (regulation, information). Manufacturers? They would lose big time on supply chain disruption, many will need to relocate. Consumers? They would see higher prices and forced to buy less (and consumers are the driving force of our economy). And all this in the time when unemployment is about to hit 15-20% and Treasury rising taxes to cope with budget. And we have no trade deals almost with anyone. Yes, in 5 or 10 years we can re-adjust and rise from...
have faith in your fellow countryman/woman
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #547,434
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:57am Sep 10, 2020 10:57am
GU, next S zones 1.2750-1.280, and 1.26-1.265
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 9104.PNG Size: 81 KB
  • #547,435
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:58am Sep 10, 2020 10:58am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} today? it would need some fat news to bring the pair another 100 pips down or maybe some scary flash crash like it happened in the past I'm still going within the flow And the market participant i showed you think on a weekly level, not a daily one. It gives more strength to the move
Dont think you need anymore news seeing as its already testing that level as we speak! 1.2780 here we come.
  • #547,436
  • Sep 10, 2020 10:59am Sep 10, 2020 10:59am
Quoting VM.
{quote} Who it will help, exactly? Banks and other services? They would lose on non-trade barriers (regulation, information). Manufacturers? They would lose big time on supply chain disruption, many will need to relocate. Consumers? They would see higher prices and forced to buy less (and consumers are the driving force of our economy). And all this in the time when unemployment is about to hit 15-20% and Treasury rising taxes to cope with budget. And we have no trade deals almost with anyone. Yes, in 5 or 10 years we can re-adjust and rise from...
As I said in my post, domestic producers and the government are the main gainers in tariff protected trade. Manufacturers would simply increase prices in line with their increased costs effectively pushing their increase of costs onto consumers. The big deal is if UK industry (Agriculture, Automotive, Pharmaceuticals) can get back on it's feet after its been beaten down for many years by foreign competition. You are right though consumers stand to be the big losers in this situation as will always be in a tariff scenario. However taxes could actually be reduced depending on how much the government stands to gain through tariffs.
  • #547,437
  • Sep 10, 2020 11:00am Sep 10, 2020 11:00am
Quoting Bones
{quote} have faith in your fellow countryman/woman
I do. 5 years is extremely short time to sort out this mess, and even 10 not that bad.
  • #547,438
  • Sep 10, 2020 11:03am Sep 10, 2020 11:03am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} As I said in my post, domestic producers and the government are the main gainers in tariff protected trade. Manufacturers would simply increase prices in line with their increased costs effectively pushing their increase of costs onto consumers. The big deal is if UK industry (Agriculture, Automotive, Pharmaceuticals) can get back on it's feet after its been beaten down for many years by foreign competition. You are right though consumers stand to be the big losers in this situation as will always be in a tariff scenario. However taxes could...
tariff are largely carried by supply business, tariff would hurt EU more ,but I admit theres no winners.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #547,439
  • Sep 10, 2020 11:04am Sep 10, 2020 11:04am
200 adr
  • #547,440
  • Sep 10, 2020 11:04am Sep 10, 2020 11:04am
The main issue for me - is the uncertainty that Boris has created.
Until this is resolved ...the pound is going to be under pressure
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
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