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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #546,721
  • Sep 7, 2020 11:42am Sep 7, 2020 11:42am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The problem is that those who don't use stop loss are likely to add to their losing position. That dire situation can escalate very quickly
Yeah, I agree. If somebody does not use a SL, but has the disipline to exit the trade when proven wrong, and enters in the new direction, I think they would have few issues with teading without a SL. However, most people who don't use a SL will add to their losing trades and not admit that they are wrong.

For me it is critical to use a SL. It is the only way to take advantage of good leverage. Dilly waddling with mini lots when you can trade lots does not make sense to me.
  • #546,722
  • Sep 7, 2020 11:51am Sep 7, 2020 11:51am
Quoting knkie
{quote} sorry for the late response... I agree it could take years before this is settled. And both will probably lose out. But i think brexit can no longer be seen as a stand alone issue. How this will all fit in the Covid situation and the financial ramifications of all the lockdowns.... By next year we will look back and see it clearer but right now its quite difficult to see where we are heading. Crazy times. \
No need to be sorry.
I fully agree that Brexit is not defining G/U direction as it did, with a lot of other developments, mostly Covid-related. But it is still a huge issue, and if we are to proceed with the same abandon as we saw over the last few days, it may escalate into something very ugly. And I have exactly zero confidence in the ability of our government to deal with the consequences.

With regards to ramifications of Covid, I sometimes envy people who don't have any notion of economy and finance. I would be happy to be mistaken, but it looks as if the world is heading for an economic and social catastrophe.
  • #546,723
  • Sep 7, 2020 11:53am Sep 7, 2020 11:53am
Quoting shahab8b
I wrote this in my thread a few days ago, but I share it here as it may help some new traders. I believe you need to define your risk (sl) and reward (tp) before each trade. Failing to do so will mess with your profitability in the long run. Just a few notes on the concept of probability, risk to reward ratio, and profitability. You don't need to have a strategy that has 70-80% success rate to be profitable. Although it will definitely help. For example, you can be profitable with a strategy with 40% success rate and RRR of 2:1 for any trading system:...
shahab8b, whatever buddy..., I am 30-60 pips trader and sometimes when I am at sleep I get 120...Nice work buddy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.07.5M.png Size: 116 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #546,724
  • Sep 7, 2020 11:58am Sep 7, 2020 11:58am
lazy Monday,

short for 100

green week to all
Dream, believe,fight for it and you will achieve and NEVER EVER GIVE UP!
  • #546,725
  • Sep 7, 2020 12:02pm Sep 7, 2020 12:02pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, whatever buddy..., I am 30-60 pips trader and sometimes when I am at sleep I get 120...Nice work buddy {image}
haha, I'm glad we're in the same trade. so the wave b is happening after all?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4 97202.png Size: 34 KB
  • #546,726
  • Sep 7, 2020 12:09pm Sep 7, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting shahab8b
I wrote this in my thread a few days ago, but I share it here as it may help some new traders. I believe you need to define your risk (sl) and reward (tp) before each trade. Failing to do so will mess with your profitability in the long run. Just a few notes on the concept of probability, risk to reward ratio, and profitability. You don't need to have a strategy that has 70-80% success rate to be profitable. Although it will definitely help. For example, you can be profitable with a strategy with 40% success rate and RRR of 2:1 for any trading system:...
world greatest!
  • #546,727
  • Sep 7, 2020 12:17pm Sep 7, 2020 12:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} haha, I'm glad we're in the same trade. so the wave b is happening after all? {image}
shahab8b, let's wait until A point on my 5M chart will be taken out to say something more but anything is possible
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #546,728
  • Sep 7, 2020 12:27pm Sep 7, 2020 12:27pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} No need to be sorry. I fully agree that Brexit is not defining G/U direction as it did, with a lot of other developments, mostly Covid-related. But it is still a huge issue, and if we are to proceed with the same abandon as we saw over the last few days, it may escalate into something very ugly. And I have exactly zero confidence in the ability of our government to deal with the consequences. With regards to ramifications of Covid, I sometimes envy people who don't have any notion of economy and finance. I would be happy to be mistaken,...
Its good to see someone looking at the macro picture
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #546,729
  • Sep 7, 2020 12:33pm Sep 7, 2020 12:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
I wrote this in my thread a few days ago, but I share it here as it may help some new traders.
Thank you for sharing this. Somehow, defining SL and TP for every trade never occurred to me. I don't think I will start now, but I will give it a thought.

On the R/R and win percentage dependence, I think one should consider money management and psychological aspects as well. If you lose 70% of the time, then 3 losses in a row is normal, 5-6 is customary and 10 in a row would happen from time to time. So one should be able to withstand many losses in a row both financially and mentally. That's not easy.
  • #546,730
  • Sep 7, 2020 12:44pm Sep 7, 2020 12:44pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} No need to be sorry. I fully agree that Brexit is not defining G/U direction as it did, with a lot of other developments, mostly Covid-related. But it is still a huge issue, and if we are to proceed with the same abandon as we saw over the last few days, it may escalate into something very ugly. And I have exactly zero confidence in the ability of our government to deal with the consequences. With regards to ramifications of Covid, I sometimes envy people who don't have any notion of economy and finance....
VM., I don't know if you recognize how much information you revealed about yourself with this one sentence...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #546,731
  • Sep 7, 2020 1:01pm Sep 7, 2020 1:01pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} VM., I don't know if you recognize how much information you revealed about yourself with this one sentence...
Hmm, I am not sure I did reveal that much.
  • #546,732
  • Sep 7, 2020 1:16pm Sep 7, 2020 1:16pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} ... I would be happy to be mistaken, but it looks as if the world is heading for an economic and social catastrophe.
I agree.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #546,733
  • Sep 7, 2020 1:20pm Sep 7, 2020 1:20pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} No need to be sorry. I fully agree that Brexit is not defining G/U direction as it did, with a lot of other developments, mostly Covid-related. But it is still a huge issue, and if we are to proceed with the same abandon as we saw over the last few days, it may escalate into something very ugly. And I have exactly zero confidence in the ability of our government to deal with the consequences. With regards to ramifications of Covid, I sometimes envy people who don't have any notion of economy and finance. I would be happy to be mistaken,...

we are on the same page
there is a perfect storm forming.
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #546,734
  • Edited 1:36pm Sep 7, 2020 1:22pm | Edited 1:36pm
... so, that prev 1hr/4hr sw lo that extends up to 3199 then 3122 respectively providing the res (=prev supp = pot sbr) on the recovery attempt from 3140 current and likely (?) day's lo....shown on 1hr pic below. This pot supp at the lo is now a prev 1hr sw lo and is in that prev wkly sw hi (= prev res = pot rbs) from back in march this year that likely extends down to 3075. A wide zone so don't be surprised to see more demand waiting in it should it be tested deeper. 1hr/4hr general/classic pa downtrends respectively remain intact ....dly/wkly still in general pa uptrends.

Most probable outcome right now re daily candle is bearish.....and very likely 3051 prev sw lo (= prev supp = pot supp) on that t/f eyed by the bears ?

Re bears: The weekly below shows arguably the most important asc t/line across the t/f's which might too, be a target for the bears.
Re Opening gap: It would be strange if it didn't close, wouldn't it ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #546,735
  • Sep 7, 2020 2:10pm Sep 7, 2020 2:10pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} Thank you for sharing this. Somehow, defining SL and TP for every trade never occurred to me. I don't think I will start now, but I will give it a thought. On the R/R and win percentage dependence, I think one should consider money management and psychological aspects as well. If you lose 70% of the time, then 3 losses in a row is normal, 5-6 is customary and 10 in a row would happen from time to time. So one should be able to withstand many losses in a row both financially and mentally. That's not easy.
It's worse than that lol - If you have a winning strike rate of 30% then the chances of 11 consecutive losers in a 50 trade period is 55%, 10 is 69.1%, 9 is 82.3%, 8 is 92.2%, 7 is 97.7% and 6 is 100%. Your likely maximum consecutive losing trades run across 500 trades is 13. As you rightly say - the impact on one's own trading psychology would be hard to take without it interfering with the normal operation of the edge, and most likely result in it being abandoned in favour of something else. This is to say nothing of being over-leveraged if using such an edge. For eg the 'rate of recovery' needed for just say a consecutive losing run of 8 trades at say 3% risk per trade ie a -24% drawdown, would be over 31.5% - ie 24% drawdown as a % of remaining 76% capital (100% - 24%)

I wonder how many traders have abandoned a potentially good edge because they don't know enough about ? The above refers to some of what you need to know about the edge you are trading (if indeed it is an edge) but there are other things too.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #546,736
  • Sep 7, 2020 2:14pm Sep 7, 2020 2:14pm
Quoting Tekin
Normaly after fibo261 a long h4 candle can come true and after a small one. Waiting the drop but not on cable on gold parallel. Today usa is off so that means 8 hours later it can turn to buy trend lets see {image}
Time expired 2 hours maybe like this
No trade during night
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200907_221245.jpg Size: 569 KB
  • #546,737
  • Sep 7, 2020 2:21pm Sep 7, 2020 2:21pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} Thank you for sharing this. Somehow, defining SL and TP for every trade never occurred to me. I don't think I will start now, but I will give it a thought. On the R/R and win percentage dependence, I think one should consider money management and psychological aspects as well. If you lose 70% of the time, then 3 losses in a row is normal, 5-6 is customary and 10 in a row would happen from time to time. So one should be able to withstand many losses in a row both financially and mentally. That's not easy.
You touched a large undervalued issue about the importance of the winning ratio. A low ratio, such as 30% of your example, gives many types of losing streaks. Not only 10 losers in a row are not uncommon but also any other losing sequence like 18-2 or 25-4 etc happen more often than one might think. The 30% ratio on average needs a much larger sample of trades to be reached than a 50/60/70% winning ratio.
And this is not only a big problem from a psychological point of view but has a great impact on the leverage one can use as well.
  • #546,738
  • Sep 7, 2020 2:23pm Sep 7, 2020 2:23pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} It's worse than that lol - If you have a winning strike rate of 30% then the chances of 11 consecutive losers in a 50 trade period is 55%, 10 is 69.1%, 9 is 82.3%, 8 is 92.2%, 7 is 97.7% and 6 is 100%. Your likely maximum consecutive losing trades run across 500 trades is 13. As you rightly say - the impact on one's own trading psychology would be hard to take without it interfering with the normal operation of the edge, and most likely result in it being abandoned in favour of something else. This is to say nothing of being over-leveraged...
Exactly, sorry I didn't see you already pointed out what I said in my previous post
  • #546,739
  • Sep 7, 2020 2:41pm Sep 7, 2020 2:41pm
last weekly low is broken .
lower price is just a matter of time
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #546,740
  • Sep 7, 2020 3:57pm Sep 7, 2020 3:57pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} if someone does not believe in stop loss, don't argue with them. ask them how that worked out for them 6-12 months later. your stop loss can be your margin call if you put lets say 5% of your trading capital in your account, but that still counts as stop loss. Which is a good practice for novice traders who are impulsive and lack discipline to close a losing position.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mp4 Video_20200907_224603.mp4   426 KB | 276 downloads
BARAK
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