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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #546,521
  • Sep 5, 2020 9:42pm Sep 5, 2020 9:42pm
thank you for shared

  1. hesron

  • #546,522
  • Sep 5, 2020 10:14pm Sep 5, 2020 10:14pm
Inserted Video
  • #546,523
  • Sep 6, 2020 12:05am Sep 6, 2020 12:05am
For Monday or Tuesday
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  • #546,524
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:13am Sep 6, 2020 3:13am
looks bullish for me, but i will try to play safe, got many support resistant lines, will see how it will play on 15min chart, now trying to catch small- 10-20pips movements,and stay for 8h session, difficult to concentrate all time, but think it will be possible in the future..usa market will be closed, thinking or pound will move a lot..
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  • #546,525
  • Sep 6, 2020 6:38am Sep 6, 2020 6:38am
Hi,

i shorted GBP/USD last friday

what is your opinion on this pair on next monday session?

What should i do with my current positions ?

Highly appreciate your suggestion !

Here is M15

https://d28lcup14p4e72.cloudfront.ne.../sshot-276.png
Write a reply...
  • #546,526
  • Sep 6, 2020 7:44am Sep 6, 2020 7:44am
weekly target, goodluck to all
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  • #546,527
  • Sep 6, 2020 8:07am Sep 6, 2020 8:07am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Shahab, By the way, I have become a great fan of your trading style and you nail it with pinpoint accuracy which may be rubbing off on me I don't take counter-trend trades often, but when price reaches a round number especially if the greater trend is up I take a shot at it knowing that round numbers could act as a bounce point and more so 1.32 which has been significant in the past. I also have my future weekly pivot at 1.33113 (Green Highlight) and price does tend to retest these. The idea was to lock it in quickly but I...
Thank you Wavegarrick. You're very kind. I don't use anything fancy, mostly S/R and TLs as you know.
Thanks for detailed explanation of your approach. BTW, I think you've got a superior trading system there. It deserves its own thread.
  • #546,528
  • Edited 10:13am Sep 6, 2020 8:43am | Edited 10:13am
A bullish longer term idea is thats a perfect double bottom ,with space and a slightly lower 2nd point.
Moty pointed out this investing chart at the time we were there -which has that flash crash to the left at the same point .
Any other chart I have seen has different levels as far as I knew it was an unknown low from volatility. Something I never seen before.
But indeed, it did rally hard from that level.
Regardless - the fact the tl lines with the pivot is a problem for now, this year maybe, especially if it makes that wave 4 down.Current impulse is near to its end, with a clear long 3 wave.
It's better to buy lower for distance, for a correction down this year as long as range holds.

Of all the flash crash lows on different feeds this is the one I'm believing .
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #546,529
  • Sep 6, 2020 9:04am Sep 6, 2020 9:04am
Quoting Bones
A bullish idea is thats a perfect double bottom , Moty pointed out this investing chart at the time we were there -which has that flash crash to the left at the same point . Any other chart I have seen has different levels as far as I knew it was an unknown low from volatility. Something I never seen before. But indeed it did rally hard from that level. Regardless - the fact the tl lines with the pivot is a problem for now, this year maybe, especially if it makes that wave 4 down.Current impulse is near to its end, with a clear long 3 wave. It's...
True, and there is the giant wedge pattern, suggesting a possible violent end to the multi-year bearish cycle.
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  • #546,530
  • Sep 6, 2020 10:16am Sep 6, 2020 10:16am
Another round of UK-EU negotiations will fail this week. The main topics will be discussed (and remain unresolved) on Tuesday and Wednesday (https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info..._version_3.pdf), although the press conferences will be held on Thursday or Friday.

You may say that effectively, this will mean no change, but I don't think so. This round is seen on both sides as the last one where agreement may be reached. And if there is no progress (which is guaranteed by the negotiators' mandates), political moves will start. It is possible that until the end of next week UK will announce that it walks off the negotiations and will focus on no deal preparation (usually such announcements are made on Saturday or Sunday). At the very least, I expect one of the sides to declare the talks in their current form have failed, and that discussion should move to the highest level (Johnson vs von der Leyen/Merkel/Macron/European Council).

It is not a coincidence that PM Johnson, foreign secretary Raab and negotiator Frost all talked about no deal in the last few days:
https://www.ft.com/content/50ad75a1-...0-3f2cbf763108
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ab-insists-uk/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54045653

(part 1/2)
  • #546,531
  • Edited 10:51am Sep 6, 2020 10:16am | Edited 10:51am
In the last few months, the market were not moved by the news on this front. Not only GBP/USD was moving upwards (this should be explained by a weak dollar), other GBP pairs were not affected. There may be a number of explanations:
1) market does not think that no deal is such a bad outcome for UK;
2) market does not realise yet that no deal is a very plausible scenario, assuming that deal will be struck at some point, as it is in both EU and UK interests;
3) market is lulling traders into a sense of false security to suddenly drop GBP beyond recovery when it chooses to.

I don't believe in first option. Second option is probable, but I would argue that a deal is very much in EU and UK economic interests, but not in the political interests for either side. And as we have seen throughout all stages of Brexit, politics beats economy every time (it is a general rule of history markets don't appreciate well enough, politics is more important than economy). So even if a deal, however unspectacular, is done, it would be after very severe brinksmanship, pressuring the pound. And then, there is a third option, which should in my opinion be considered seriously.

We will see if the market starts selling GBP on Monday/Tuesday, in anticipation of further developments, or will actually lift G/U, to sell comfortably from higher levels. I hope for the latter, although former looks more probable. Other market developments don't favour the pound that much either, with stocks turning bearish and ECB being concerned about strong euro, may issue some super-dovish comments next week.

(part 2/2)
  • #546,532
  • Sep 6, 2020 10:29am Sep 6, 2020 10:29am
Quoting vowan4ik
{quote} yeap) i switched, entered in the buy from 1.32184 a small lots and will add from 1.32 and 1.318, sl on 1.315
it was a right decision) good GU bounced up)
now I'm waiting for retest 1.324 or 1.32 and will add to the buys
but need to watch what the market is doing and I will follow on the price
Like your wife says, hold the fucking position until I tell you I'm done.
  • #546,533
  • Sep 6, 2020 2:46pm Sep 6, 2020 2:46pm
Quoting ChiForex
Bulls will try to daily close GU @1.3280s or above if possible while bears will try to reject 1.3280s and make it close below 1.3260 General outlook, downtrend will continue after some consolidation.
Bulls managed to close Friday candle at exact 1.3280s which is not very convincing, and seems after around an hour from now market is opening on a gap below 1.3260, that weakens bulls more & more.

At market open will analyze the pair to give a clearer view for the week ahead.
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #546,534
  • Sep 6, 2020 2:55pm Sep 6, 2020 2:55pm
For me a sell - pulled back to fair value after the London close...
Neg news over the weekend - re Brexit, ECB etc...
Lets see what risk etc.... thinks
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #546,535
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:21pm Sep 6, 2020 3:21pm
40 pip gap down atm...10 more and my friday shorts will close earlier than I thought.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #546,536
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:27pm Sep 6, 2020 3:27pm
If you are tracking the GBPPUSD market this week consider this technical perspective. On GBPUSD the daily time frame, despite the technically favorable bullish environment, there is an increase in bearish pressure. For example, an outer rising trendline (red) is intact and an inner rising trendline (blue) is still being respected, but the order flow context is recently seeing an increase in bearish prints. Besides, between Tuesday and Friday last week, price action printed candlesticks that significantly favour bears. However, this does not mean that bears have taken control of the market. The H4 time frame shows an increase in bearish pressure recently given the increase in the pullbacks and corrective moves, and the break of a minor rising trendline (black). However, bulls tried to regain market influence on Friday as the last two 4Hr candlesticks were bullish, but they failed to breach the high of the relatively big bearish candlestick preceding them. Nevertheless, this bullish intent indicates that bears are not yet in control of the market. Bulls still have the potential for further northward move. The 1.33560 area, or a retest of the minor rising trendline (black), is a technical target for such bullish move. The 1.30140 area (Sandybrown) is the immediate horizontal support and technically an initial target of bears. I will await what price action does in the early part of this week before making directional commitment.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #546,537
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:35pm Sep 6, 2020 3:35pm
Quoting KeenPips
If you are tracking the GBPPUSD market this week consider this technical perspective. On GBPUSD the daily time frame, despite the technically favorable bullish environment, there is an increase in bearish pressure. For example, an outer rising trendline (red) is intact and an inner rising trendline (blue) is still being respected, but the order flow context is recently seeing an increase in bearish prints. Besides, between Tuesday and Friday last week, price action printed candlesticks that significantly favour bears. However, this does not mean...
hi, god a question, whats wrong with my trend line? for me it looks perfectly respected, point to point
  • #546,538
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:40pm Sep 6, 2020 3:40pm
Which? The minor rising trendline (black) on the H4 tf was based on the line chart, usually used to get to the recent candlestick closes.

KP

Quoting goldencalf
{quote} hi, god a question, whats wrong with my trend line? for me it looks perfectly respected, point to point
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #546,539
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:42pm Sep 6, 2020 3:42pm
Quoting KeenPips
Which? The minor rising trendline (black) on the H4 tf was based on the line chart, usually used to get to the recent candlestick closes. KP {quote}
check my post,and my trendline, its from lowest points 4h chart, looks perfect for me, very nice for the eye
  • #546,540
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:48pm Sep 6, 2020 3:48pm
Thanks mate but I did that trendline for a purpose. It's not every time you use the wicks. The wicks were use for the outer trendline.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting goldencalf
{quote} check my post,and my trendline, its from lowest points 4h chart, looks perfect for me, very nice for the eye
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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