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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #545,221
  • Aug 29, 2020 6:29am Aug 29, 2020 6:29am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I'm also of the school of thought that records can easily be shattered but need to draw our attention to some vital details... * Crude oil plummeted to subzero when COVID 19 got to the climax of global lockdown. Immediately after the subzero level there was a spike recovery again despite the fact that Covid 19 is still on and most countries were still in lockdown, then after gradual ease of lockdown it still continued it's recovery till date. * Covid 19 made GBPUSD crash to 1.1409 level and price reacted upwards again after few weeks despite...
If you want to compare apples with apples, and maintain the statistical integrity of your method, then looking at the bullish monthly response after the 2009 lows (when the US printing press kick started), will give you the best historical reference when predicting the market response to the current record printing.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #545,222
  • Aug 29, 2020 7:17am Aug 29, 2020 7:17am
Quoting trumps
{quote} If you want to compare apples with apples, and maintain the statistical integrity of your method, then looking at the bullish monthly response after the 2009 lows (when the US printing press kick started), will give you the best historical reference when predicting the market response to the current record printing.
2009 range 1.7042 - 1.3503 = 3539 pips
2010 range 1.6456 - 1.4228 = 2228 pips

Note: 2009 came directly after global financial crisis and pre financial crisis range is much higher than post financial crisis range. Most countries are now very conscious of their monetary policies and need to avoid currency wars which may prompt another global financial crisis.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #545,223
  • Aug 29, 2020 7:33am Aug 29, 2020 7:33am
W/e analysis cont...


Pot supp/rbs to the downside is pretty clear on 1hr + charts....To the upside...potential near-term res/sbr is less clear with just this wide prev dly/wkly/mthly sw hi to 3515 the most obvious near-term factor. Of course ther eare the new mthly, wkly and monday's dly pivots but these for me are tertiary factors of 3 categories of pot supp/res/sbr/rbs factors used in my edge's analysis, so I turn to fib extensions of the last daily swing down 3264-3052 to see if any confluence of factors exists anywhere in that zone....the 161.8% ext of which is at 3397. At / just above the Friday's weekly hi is that dly asc channel top (see dly chart pic in post above.)

Uk bank hol on Monday.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #545,224
  • Aug 29, 2020 8:09am Aug 29, 2020 8:09am
not yet, still go up further ( i missed the white bar ) but i didnt lost anythings Yet
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  • #545,225
  • Aug 29, 2020 8:17am Aug 29, 2020 8:17am
Quoting trumps
{quote} If you want to compare apples with apples, and maintain the statistical integrity of your method, then looking at the bullish monthly response after the 2009 lows (when the US printing press kick started), will give you the best historical reference when predicting the market response to the current record printing.
Hi trumps,
I think it is a very good idea to look at historical precedents. But I am not sure GFC is a good precedent, by the following reasons:

- yes, G/U rebounded from 1.35 to 1.7 from January to August 2009. But in July 2008, G/U traded at 2.03. So yes, the move up was significant, but compared to the move down, it was just 50% retracement. Also, in subsequent months the G/U dropped back to 1.42. [Side remark: interestingly, 1.35 was the very lowest point for G/U between 1987 and 2017; we should all thank Brexiters for the fact 1.35 now looks like a high pound value.]

- GFC was a financial crisis, but not an economic crisis, meaning it did not affect real economy that much. The nature of the current crisis is different: it is a wide economic crisis affecting whole sectors of economy.

- As a consequence, the fiscal response is much, no, MUCH bigger this time. The total US fiscal bill was less than 1 trillion, spent throughout 2009 and 2010. (More details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...reat_Recession). Nowadays 1 trillion is peanuts, total US fiscal bill plus Fed programs are probably about 5-6 trillion already, and may well go close to 10bn territory this year which would be half of US GDP.

- US is not the only country spending big, and I am not at all convinced that UK will be able to spend less (proportionately). You can find the figures based on June information here: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/...deliver-impact.

But you are certainly right in pointing out that 30% change in currency valuation is not something unusual in turbulent times, which we should all keep in mind.
  • #545,226
  • Aug 29, 2020 8:29am Aug 29, 2020 8:29am
Quoting Georginson
1.3400/1.3414 tops it for me before correction to 1.2870 within 13 - 25 trade days. No 1.35 before 1.28 still on. * Last time GBPUSD did 4 consecutive months of buying was 2012 January to April (1.5235 - 1.6300) 1065 pips, followed up by 1033 pips decline within 6 weeks (1.6300 - 1.5267) * Now 3 months of consecutive buying from 2020 June to August (1.2250 - 1.3350) 1105 pips * Maximum Yearly range from 2011 - 2019 (excluding 2016 brexit referendum) was 1900 pips which happened in 2018 (1.4375 - 1.2475) * Now 2020 range 1.1409 - 1.3355 = 1946 pips,...

W/e analysis cont...

Good analysis George thanks.

I have a repeating pattern of regular bearish divergence on the daily t/f since 3267, but this does not mean that price will not go higher into the prev dly/wkly/mthly sw hi zone (= prev res = pot res) to 3515 swing hi, as you suggest in your post above. It is very likely that more sellers are waiting in this zone, and if I was looking for a longer term short in this zone I would try to time it on the 4hr or 1hr. If price goes too high the current reg bearish div will disappear of course - on my osc settings at least.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #545,227
  • Aug 29, 2020 9:25am Aug 29, 2020 9:25am
Guys, why you all so busy to prediction where the price will go? just try to find trend for next week, then use you own system to open trade later
This is weekend, time with family.

Happy weekend
  • #545,228
  • Aug 29, 2020 9:37am Aug 29, 2020 9:37am
Quoting SCopier
Guys, why you all so busy to prediction where the price will go? just try to find trend for next week, then use you own system to open trade later This is weekend, time with family. Happy weekend
it is enough if you one analyze what London session will do everyday.

That is enough to make money
Intraday only.
  • #545,229
  • Aug 29, 2020 10:34am Aug 29, 2020 10:34am
Hi all! This is my first post in FF

In my opinion GBP is near exhaustion... a comeback to the lower trend line could possibly occur around September / October.

Take care and have a nice weekend you all.
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  • #545,230
  • Aug 29, 2020 10:40am Aug 29, 2020 10:40am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I have been horrible to know 1.35 awaits from 1.21 level in mid May and yet not take advantage of this surge to this level. My calculation exposed it to happen between October to December but failed to understand that the long term trend should not be limited to specific months. Now I can only see 1.28 level again before 1.35 eventually after missing on hundreds of pips to this point. My Outlook for the year is good but the timing of the outlook has been horrible. In the attached is my projection from Mid May when price traded at 1.2104...
I understand your frustration, George.

If you spend thousands of hours analyzing charts, you begin to see common rules which tend to repeat themselves over and over. However, there are freak situations in technical analysis and one must allow for those also. GBPUSD is currently undergoing one of those special situations now. When a currency pair goes parabolic, meaning a very long run without a correction, it is quite common to see an upward sloping wedge forming. In this case, GU has climbed incessantly for 1,105 pips without correcting and it has indeed formed an upward sloping wedge. As you may know, if the bottom side of this type of wedge breaks, the fall is generally steep, rapid and huge. It can be as much as the total number of pips that formed it. The wedge formation is also accompanied by large divergences forming in oscillators, which is also the case here. I am not forecasting that this will happen in this particular case, but it is something to bear in mind before going long next week. If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, in most cases, it is a duck...
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #545,231
  • Aug 29, 2020 10:51am Aug 29, 2020 10:51am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I understand your frustration, George. If you spend thousands of hours analyzing charts, you begin to see common rules which tend to repeat themselves over and over. However, there are freak situations in technical analysis and one must allow for those also. GBPUSD is currently undergoing one of those special situations now. When a currency pair goes parabolic, meaning a very long run without a correction, it is quite common to see an upward sloping wedge forming. In this case, GU has climbed incessantly for 1,105 pips without correcting...
Very well put Alorente.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #545,232
  • Aug 29, 2020 10:55am Aug 29, 2020 10:55am
Quoting Theoak
All timeframes are on full bull mode. Until some kind of pull back.... Unable to enter!!! Look to see what opportunities there are next week
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Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #545,233
  • Aug 29, 2020 11:23am Aug 29, 2020 11:23am
This all about dollar weakness, dollar weakness, DOLLAR FUCKING WEAKNESS!!!!!!

And until that corrects don't expect a bear run anytime soon!!!

This is like trading cable and Euro and all dollar pairs B4 the GFC when Alan Greenspan kept lowering interest rates. He knew there was going to be a crash but made sure by lowering rates it wasn't going to be on his watch.
I thought those days were never coming back when just about everyday you'd get a 100 pip rally on Cable
Maybe we have hit a double bottom on DXY or just a breather b4 more downside, even still I think Bulls will still aim for 1.3500 and there is nothing right now to suggest the dollar wont keep heading south.
If that's the case expect Japanese intervention probably some time this coming week!!!
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Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #545,234
  • Aug 29, 2020 11:37am Aug 29, 2020 11:37am
Quoting buddha-
not yet, still go up further ( i missed the white bar ) but i didnt lost anythings Yet {image}
Hello Buddha,
What kind of indicator is the blue bar and the white bar?
Greeting Ritter3
  • #545,235
  • Aug 29, 2020 11:53am Aug 29, 2020 11:53am
snakeforce, i just change a bit color n calculate
u can down load at this site
  • #545,236
  • Aug 29, 2020 11:59am Aug 29, 2020 11:59am
eurgbp’s my chance for next week n gbp will hold longer then my thought
  • #545,237
  • Aug 29, 2020 12:01pm Aug 29, 2020 12:01pm
GBPUSD, weekly chart. The bias remains bullish; however, I don't think it is going to be a smooth sailing from here to 1.35. But there is no telling where it might turn and the box is 200 pips wide so it's better to trade it day by day. for now bullish with solid S @ 1.3150.
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  • #545,238
  • Edited 6:38pm Aug 29, 2020 12:35pm | Edited 6:38pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} 2009 range 1.7042 - 1.3503 = 3539 pips 2010 range 1.6456 - 1.4228 = 2228 pips Note: 2009 came directly after global financial crisis and pre financial crisis range is much higher than post financial crisis range. Most countries are now very conscious of their monetary policies and need to avoid currency wars which may prompt another global financial crisis.
The year the US printing press got kick started, the range was over 3500 pips.
Those same printing presses have been turned on again this year and are printing record amounts of money.
This is precisely the point I am making about Apples with Apples.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #545,239
  • Aug 29, 2020 12:45pm Aug 29, 2020 12:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
however, I don't think it is going to be a smooth sailing from here to 1.35.
I think this coming Monday may be the best chance for the bulls to tackle 1.35 quickly. Monday is bank holiday in the UK, so we can expect low volumes between Asian and US sessions, which means exaggerated moves. With month-end flows unfavourable to US dollar, 150 pips looks like a valid target. If this scenario plays out, I would expect a sharp reversal on Tuesday or even in the US session.
  • #545,240
  • Aug 29, 2020 1:01pm Aug 29, 2020 1:01pm
Quoting VM.
{quote} I think this coming Monday may be the best chance for the bulls to tackle 1.35 quickly. Monday is bank holiday in the UK, so we can expect low volumes between Asian and US sessions, which means exaggerated moves. With month-end flows unfavourable to US dollar, 150 pips looks like a valid target. If this scenario plays out, I would expect a sharp reversal on Tuesday or even in the US session.
Good observation, sounds totally plausible. I think the catalyst for the reversal could be Brexit news related... they need to impact the market greatly.
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