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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #545,201
  • Aug 29, 2020 12:54am Aug 29, 2020 12:54am
Quoting ChiForex
Targeting 1.3310 and possibly 1.3340 will hold the pair. As far the short from 1.3260s the better...as price will retest it later..
This was my comment when GU was around 1.3270.
Yesterday, I was holding longs as a bull until GU reached and broke over 1.3340, where I turned bear and grabbed some good shorts, keeping one hold @1.3345 for bigger retrace down.

I don't see market have the enough power to make one more big push up toward 1.35 in one day(Monday) before close of monthly candle and open of new one.
And however the monthly close would be, there will be a nice retrace down in September, knowing that around current price attracted much sellers at past and history doesn't support more than 1000pips advance in 2 month without a good retrace at least 300pips in the third.

As you read before I repeat, as long as your entry is way far from a most probable retrace level as much as your risk is lower.

It hadn't happen that my luck was ever that good while holding a position market gaps in my favor..lets see for next week
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #545,202
  • Aug 29, 2020 12:57am Aug 29, 2020 12:57am
Quoting de5151
{quote} Here is the current picture. I think the 1.35 people may win this, LOL. {image} Here is the poll link once again: https://www.easypolls.net/poll.html?...b048bb32746ba0
It will be wiser if you set a period of time for when it might first hit one of both..as I don't see any of both being touched in September, although 1.35 might look "more possible"!
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #545,203
  • Aug 29, 2020 1:15am Aug 29, 2020 1:15am
Quoting ChiForex
{quote} It will be wiser if you set a period of time for when it might first hit one of both..as I don't see any of both being touched in September, although 1.35 might look "more possible"!
This is all about US dollar weakness, this is why Abe resigned, not about physical health issues he just can't cope with dollar weakness LOL. So as long as it continues there will be no meaningful retrace, 100-150 at most.
UK holiday Monday so wondering how that'll pan out? Will prop traders continue to push this forward to 135 or take a breather plus end of month flows.
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #545,204
  • Aug 29, 2020 2:40am Aug 29, 2020 2:40am
1.3400/1.3414 tops it for me before correction to 1.2870 within 13 - 25 trade days. No 1.35 before 1.28 still on.

* Last time GBPUSD did 4 consecutive months of buying was 2012 January to April (1.5235 - 1.6300) 1065 pips, followed up by 1033 pips decline within 6 weeks (1.6300 - 1.5267)

* Now 3 months of consecutive buying from 2020 June to August (1.2250 - 1.3350) 1105 pips

* Maximum Yearly range from 2011 - 2019 (excluding 2016 brexit referendum) was 1900 pips which happened in 2018 (1.4375 - 1.2475)

* Now 2020 range 1.1409 - 1.3355 = 1946 pips, which is already 46 pips above the last 10 years maximum yearly range.

* 2019 March had a resistance of 1.3380 and a plummet to 1.2864 followed in 2019 April. 1.3513 eventually happened in 2019 but first met with a resistance at 1.3380. Now we are just few pips away from 1.3380 which shows reversal is extremely close.

A research excerpt with no obligation to follow.

Peace.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #545,205
  • Aug 29, 2020 4:11am Aug 29, 2020 4:11am
The market is in cycles where sometimes the most astute of trader will have horrible runs, what matters is the passion to keep going and keep learning on why things happened the way they did.

No trend in forex lasts forever, early part of this year was mainly bearish, now the second part of this year has been bullish but something remains definite which is trend always reverses.

Many of us don't wait for confirmation before going against the trend and we get our accounts burned and when the trend starts reversing we still believe in the previous trend that took our money in the first instance and still get burnt again.

A trader places a sell at 1.3250 area after weeks of patience and yet price surges to 1.3350/1.3400 and decided to accept loss and takes a buy at 1.3380 area, then days later price reverses to 1.3220 where the trader had previously sold, now the trader's new buy is also in negative. This can be avoided by waiting for reversal confirmation and solid risk management.

Talking about reversal, 27/08/2020 being Thursday gave a reversal daily and 4 hours candle which recorded high of 1.3283 and closed at 1.3200, then following day being 29/08/2020 price surged again and even broke the 1.3283 to 1.3355 which now signals the so called reversal @ 1.3283 to be a fake reversal.

Do check April 28/04/2020 did same fake reversal on daily and 4 hours candle but added 125 pips to the fake top of 1.2517 to 1.2642. Now they brought same again 27/08/2020 fake top 1.3283 just add 125 to it and it will give you 1.3408 potential top.

These two fake reversals (27/04/2020 and 28/08/2020) happened 3 trade days before end of the month. Their plan is to punish against the trend traders and then crash the price when everyone seem to have forgotten that every trend has an end and as I type we are just 30 - 60 pips away from the end of this trend.

My advise, don't think of placing a buy as usual when the reversal starts as it will be quite quick and consecutive to 1.30/1.28 area.

I'm just human and can make mistakes but mistakes make me stronger to win another day.

As always, no obligation to follow this write up.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #545,206
  • Aug 29, 2020 4:13am Aug 29, 2020 4:13am
Next week will be interesting, wish everyone here on green pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #545,207
  • Aug 29, 2020 4:45am Aug 29, 2020 4:45am
Quoting Georginson
1.3400/1.3414 tops it for me before correction to 1.2870 within 13 - 25 trade days. No 1.35 before 1.28 still on. * Last time GBPUSD did 4 consecutive months of buying was 2012 January to April (1.5235 - 1.6300) 1065 pips, followed up by 1033 pips decline within 6 weeks (1.6300 - 1.5267) * Now 3 months of consecutive buying from 2020 June to August (1.2250 - 1.3350) 1105 pips * Maximum Yearly range from 2011 - 2019 (excluding 2016 brexit referendum) was 1900 pips which happened in 2018 (1.4375 - 1.2475) * Now 2020 range 1.1409 - 1.3355 = 1946 pips,...
Hi Georginson.
The problem I see with only looking at the last 10 years of maximum yearly ranges, is that it fails to consider the period where the US printing press got Kick started in response to the GFC.

However, we now have Covid, and the US printing press has been called upon to prevent a market collapse.

As such, the current period and the historical 10 year period you are referencing, have no resemblance to each other.
This removes the statistical significance your method of trading relies upon to work.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #545,208
  • Aug 29, 2020 4:47am Aug 29, 2020 4:47am
Quoting de5151
{quote} Here is the current picture. I think the 1.35 people may win this, LOL. {image} Here is the poll link once again: https://www.easypolls.net/poll.html?...b048bb32746ba0

even at 1.3490, the share of the bears, beliving the 1.28 will come before 1.35, won't chance much!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #545,209
  • Aug 29, 2020 4:49am Aug 29, 2020 4:49am
Quoting Georginson
1.3400/1.3414 tops it for me before correction to 1.2870 within 13 - 25 trade days. No 1.35 before 1.28 still on. * Last time GBPUSD did 4 consecutive months of buying was 2012 January to April (1.5235 - 1.6300) 1065 pips, followed up by 1033 pips decline within 6 weeks (1.6300 - 1.5267) * Now 3 months of consecutive buying from 2020 June to August (1.2250 - 1.3350) 1105 pips * Maximum Yearly range from 2011 - 2019 (excluding 2016 brexit referendum) was 1900 pips which happened in 2018 (1.4375 - 1.2475) * Now 2020 range 1.1409 - 1.3355 = 1946 pips,...
mate..
i'm not trying to proven anything here..
no offence..
only want to give a tiny opinion..
i'm just a sidewalk trader..
you're much detail and great trader than me..
we also have talk about this before since price playing at lower there..
normal for any price going up will come back down..
same when going down also will climb back upside..
i think maybe you're missing something there mate..
open our mind to see at other side as well..
example here..
don't just watch at bear side..also at bull side..
what they up to..!?
since the day we discuss about this until now..how many pips already it fly..?
again..
i'm nothing to prove here..
only a tiny opinion from sidewalk trader..
enjoy weekend
️
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #545,210
  • Edited 6:11am Aug 29, 2020 5:15am | Edited 6:11am
W/e analysis


Mthly range was 375pips which is only 63% of the 4 month amr. Weekly range was 302 - 113% of the 13week awr. Friday's daily range was 170 which is 151% of the 30 day adr and another 'large' pip range for this pairing relative to the average.

20/50/100 ema's are all crossed up from 5min to dly t/f's...and the wkly now goes neutral whilst mthly remain crossed down.

Mthly
The mthly candle closes very bullishly on this t/f which was always the technical higher probability after July's mthly close. No fractal print created by the close of this month's candle on the t/f - the last few being LL, H, LL, LH, H, LL and a HL in it's general pa downtrend. Last 3 candles have been bullish on this t/f.

Wkly
The wkly candle closes very bullishly and has breeched the asc channel top on that t/f to the upside. No fractal print is created by this wkly candle close on the t/f - the last few being HL, LH, H, and what will be a HH when it forms in it's general pa uptrend. The last 3 candles on this t/f have also been bullish.

Dly
The dly candle closes very bullishly and has breeched the asc channel top (s) on this t/f to the upside. No fractal print is created by this wkly candle close on the t/f - the last few being H, HL, H, L and what will be a H when it forms in it's general pa uptrend.

4Hr
The last 4hr candle closes very bullishly too and this t/f remains in a general pa uptrend. No fractal print was created by the close of this candle but when it does print it will be another HH

1Hr
Again this t/f remains in a general pa uptrend but no fractal print created by the last 1hr close

Conclusion
Price has entered the bottom of the mthly part of the prev dly/wkly/mthly sw hi to 3515 (=prev res = pot res) zone leading up to 3515 and it is almost certain that there will be more sellers waiting as we get deeper in that zone toward that 3515 hi. Since 2252 the deepest pullback has been circa 216pips and with a > 1000 pip run I wonder where so called 'trend exhaustion' may set-in for a deeper pullback ? In the meantime price remains bullish and with an eye on the upcoming fundie data and environment this would have to be the prevailing bias for anyone operating on the 1hr + t/f, as of close of market, until price tells us otherwise.

On my osc settings the weekly hidden bearish div for an entry into the mthly downtrend after the pullback from 1411 has just about been invalidated by the bullish close of this week's weekly candle, and in any event price would have to stay well below 3515 for it to be valid.
--------------------------------------------

There is a mthly desc t/line joining 2.1162 with 7188 that on September's mthly candle will come thru around the top of that aforementioned zone to 3515 hi - perhaps this is what the bulls are aiming for ? Above here and a 5 fib cluster of the major swing hi's from and including 2.1162 down to 1411 lo begins at 3618 up to 3712

Wkly and Dly charts below.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Capture2.JPG Size: 174 KB
Trader with an Edge.
  • #545,211
  • Aug 29, 2020 5:37am Aug 29, 2020 5:37am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Hi Georginson. The problem I see with only looking at the last 10 years of maximum yearly ranges, is that it fails to consider the period where the US printing press got Kick started in response to the GFC. However, we now have Covid, and the US printing press has been called upon to prevent a market collapse. As such, the current period and the historical 10 year period you are referencing, have no resemblance to each other. This removes the statistical significance your method of trading relies upon to work.
I'm also of the school of thought that records can easily be shattered but need to draw our attention to some vital details...

* Crude oil plummeted to subzero when COVID 19 got to the climax of global lockdown. Immediately after the subzero level there was a spike recovery again despite the fact that Covid 19 is still on and most countries were still in lockdown, then after gradual ease of lockdown it still continued it's recovery till date.

* Covid 19 made GBPUSD crash to 1.1409 level and price reacted upwards again after few weeks despite that there had been more cases and deaths.

* Now FED is minting money Aggressively at a level never seen before and that opens credence for more dollar weakness and rightly so.

But if going by Fundamentals and happenings, Eurusd, Oil, Gold and GBPUSD could have continued going down but eventually responded to technical correction of this up move we are seeing now.

No matter how much FED weakens the Dollar, there will always be a correction and other countries too will and have weakened their monetary policy.

In summary no trend lasts forever and there will always be technical corrections.

I may be wrong but cannot always be wrong.

Peace.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #545,212
  • Aug 29, 2020 5:43am Aug 29, 2020 5:43am
Quoting akim0895
{quote} mate.. i'm not trying to proven anything here.. no offence.. only want to give a tiny opinion.. i'm just a sidewalk trader.. you're much detail and great trader than me.. we also have talk about this before since price playing at lower there.. normal for any price going up will come back down.. same when going down also will climb back upside.. i think maybe you're missing something there mate.. open our mind to see at other side as well.. example here.. don't just watch at bear side..also at bull side.. what they up to..!? since the day...
I have been horrible to know 1.35 awaits from 1.21 level in mid May and yet not take advantage of this surge to this level. My calculation exposed it to happen between October to December but failed to understand that the long term trend should not be limited to specific months. Now I can only see 1.28 level again before 1.35 eventually after missing on hundreds of pips to this point. My Outlook for the year is good but the timing of the outlook has been horrible.

In the attached is my projection from Mid May when price traded at 1.2104 but yet over analysis on monthly basis is my biggest undoing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200721-005432~2.png Size: 140 KB
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #545,213
  • Aug 29, 2020 5:50am Aug 29, 2020 5:50am
Quoting Georginson
The market is in cycles where sometimes the most astute of trader will have horrible runs, what matters is the passion to keep going and keep learning on why things happened the way they did. No trend in forex lasts forever, early part of this year was mainly bearish, now the second part of this year has been bullish but something remains definite which is trend always reverses. Many of us don't wait for confirmation before going against the trend and we get our accounts burned and when the trend starts reversing we still believe in the previous...
So sad when I read this sort of retail stuff
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #545,214
  • Aug 29, 2020 5:52am Aug 29, 2020 5:52am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I have been horrible to know 1.35 awaits from 1.21 level in mid May and yet not take advantage of this surge to this level. My calculation exposed it to happen between October to December but failed to understand that the long term trend should not be limited to specific months. Now I can only see 1.28 level again before 1.35 eventually after missing on hundreds of pips to this point. My Outlook for the year is good but the timing of the outlook has been horrible. In the attached is my projection from Mid May when price traded at 1.2104...
at forex everything is possible..
we don't need winning trade 3 from 10..
but we need 7 from 10 to survive at this game..
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #545,215
  • Aug 29, 2020 5:57am Aug 29, 2020 5:57am
Quoting akim0895
{quote} at forex everything is possible.. we don't need winning trade 3 from 10.. but we need 7 from 10 to survive at this game..
Well said mate.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #545,216
  • Aug 29, 2020 6:00am Aug 29, 2020 6:00am
Quoting akim0895
{quote} at forex everything is possible.. we don't need winning trade 3 from 10.. but we need 7 from 10 to survive at this game..
perfect calculate from all timing or fundamental does not guarantee us always to collect green pips from the market..
but look deep inside the charts..
what they try to talk to us..
look back at old famous traders..
did they do the perfect calculate to catch a big moves..?
history always repeat over and over again by pattern of the chandlesticks..
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #545,217
  • Aug 29, 2020 6:03am Aug 29, 2020 6:03am
I am waiting if the uk 100 index will fill the gap below, but from what I understand the libr went up while the index fell...

this month was wonderful for me so i'm waiting for the candle monthly to close,

and if I can trust a safe dollar purchase next month, I’m waiting.
  • #545,218
  • Aug 29, 2020 6:13am Aug 29, 2020 6:13am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I have been horrible to know 1.35 awaits from 1.21 level in mid May and yet not take advantage of this surge to this level.

Georgie, may I suggest, you do as I do? My guesses are horrible, thankfully, at the end, at the most crucial moments, my EAs are doing the right thing...

Just set your EA/script to open buys until 1.35 and here ya go! Timing WON'T matter for you, as you have nailed it right with the direction and level.

Here is a live account example of me only buying the pound. No sells ever. Can't share chart for reasons unknown... These are the closures at $10 per 0.01 instance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 745742A6-AFA4-4DBB-B02A-BD0B92DF734A.png Size: 2.4 MB
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #545,219
  • Aug 29, 2020 6:16am Aug 29, 2020 6:16am
All timeframes are on full bull mode. Until some kind of pull back.... Unable to enter!!! Look to see what opportunities there are next week
Don't trade what you think. Just what you see!!!
  • #545,220
  • Aug 29, 2020 6:19am Aug 29, 2020 6:19am
W/e analysis cont...

...Mthly is shown below...as you will see price has made a decisive upside breech and close above 2 x desc t/lines and the only one left on this t/f joins 2.1162 to 7188 swing hi's...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 176 KB
Trader with an Edge.
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