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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #545,061
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:16am Aug 28, 2020 4:16am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} Try again short in at 1.3266 same target Stupid short 20 pip loss. Deserved it.
me too
  • #545,062
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:17am Aug 28, 2020 4:17am
Lovely day
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Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #545,063
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:18am Aug 28, 2020 4:18am
Look at GJ
  • #545,064
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:19am Aug 28, 2020 4:19am
Quoting Georginson
Weekly Range now 236 pips which equals most repeated range in the last 17 weeks. So a reversal is due around here (1.3287)...
do you mean like 50-60 pips drop? yea maybe, but I don't call that reversal. For a reversal in this uptrend, you need break of 1.3050-1.30 support zone and the uptrend TL.
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  • #545,065
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:21am Aug 28, 2020 4:21am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} i think atm nothing is really technical in this market last days. its all about the dollar weakness.
I agree. Forex has become like the stock market. here you close your eyes and sell USD.
  • #545,066
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:22am Aug 28, 2020 4:22am
Quoting akim0895
{quote} mate.. they are experience traders,10-12 yrs at trading.. how can you said that way..
So? They are perfect? They never lose money?

The fact that I joined FF just this year doesn't mean I haven't been in the market for quite too long.

And you know I'm right
Patience and Discipline.
  • #545,067
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:23am Aug 28, 2020 4:23am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} do you mean like 50-60 pips drop? yea maybe, but I don't call that reversal. For a reversal in this uptrend, you need break of 1.3050-1.30 support zone and the uptrend TL. {image}
Not 50 - 60 pips drop, I'm looking at 400 pips drop to 1.2870. it will be a gradual drop in days ahead. Today seems to me like the final buying day in the short term.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #545,068
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:25am Aug 28, 2020 4:25am
Quoting Stefan90csk
{quote} So? They are perfect? They never lose money? The fact that I joined FF just this year doesn't mean I haven't been in the market for quite too long. And you know I'm right
ha ha..
no offence
just for fun..
️
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #545,069
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:26am Aug 28, 2020 4:26am
Quoting akim0895
{quote} ha ha.. no offence just for fun.. ️
Ofc! I always liked your view.

Patience and Discipline.
  • #545,070
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:28am Aug 28, 2020 4:28am
silly cable refusing to sell, EJ already gave me 100pips from the sell.
  • #545,071
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:29am Aug 28, 2020 4:29am
Quoting Stefan90csk
{quote} Ofc! I always liked your view.
i agree with you there mate..
sometimes they over acting
pretend to be perfect..
leave them at their fantasy world
back to our trading..
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #545,072
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:38am Aug 28, 2020 4:38am
Quoting Stefan90csk
Retailers with 500-1000$ accounts are trying to help recover one of the biggest economies with 0.05-0.10 lots positions... I wonder how many of you even read what is going on around the world before going into your so called - "it will not go there, it will not cross this" predictions. Educate guys, not everything is written on the chart.
hm,,,,, Point
  • #545,073
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:39am Aug 28, 2020 4:39am
I've go short, my target is 1,33
  • #545,074
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:41am Aug 28, 2020 4:41am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Not 50 - 60 pips drop, I'm looking at 400 pips drop to 1.2870. it will be a gradual drop in days ahead. Today seems to me like the final buying day in the short term.
why do you think this is the last day?
statistics?
i trade mostly harmonic patterns, in a way I found it right.
when I have the same pattern in two tf's above 15m . It would raise my success rate from 60% to 92%
lately, I'm at less than 20% success ( and im try to take only target 1 everytime)/
something has changed in the last two months.

this is just my feeling.
some traders can say market is trending now- not ranging.
maybe yes maybe now.
but my pattern not working, any pair i'll go.. i see the same hoes
  • #545,075
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:49am Aug 28, 2020 4:49am
Quoting AndyFrediani
I've go short, my target is 1,33
I think you have a typo?
  • #545,076
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:50am Aug 28, 2020 4:50am
for how long can it last?
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Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #545,077
  • Aug 28, 2020 5:01am Aug 28, 2020 5:01am
Quoting JayBag
{quote} Just when we starting to use the ‘so called’ triple top as support? I need your kind of balls FR

  • #545,078
  • Aug 28, 2020 5:01am Aug 28, 2020 5:01am
My view for the next two months. Would be happy to hear other views.

Reasons to go short G/U:
- Brexit trade negotiations are entering the endgame, and it won't be pretty: contrary to market expectations, there is no path to a deal;
- adding to Brexit, British economy will face another hit with discontinuation of furlough scheme; employers will want to lay off staff in September as scheme comes to an end in October (1 month notice period is standard in the UK);
- coronavirus news will probably get better in US, while in UK, there will be a second wave when schools open and public transport is used more in cooler season;
- there is a stocks bubble; if it bursts, dollar can get much higher.

Reasons to go long G/U:
- dollar enters "lower for longer" period, not clear whether it is priced in FX rates already or will be priced in gradually over the next months or even years;
- if democrats sweep US elections, fiscal discipline will go out of the window. Then again, if democrats win race for President and republicans can win Senate, spending will be cut.

Overall, it looks as if pound should depreciate against dollar in the next two months, due to Brexit news and UK unemployment. Dollar selloff may continue in the longer run, but I don't expect it outruns GBP in the race to the bottom.

If today will prove to be a big bullish day (very much possible, with end-of-month re-balancing flows and low volumes), I would argue it may signal the last drive up before a big drop. The drop may even start today; the question for me is, whether yearly high of 1.329 is enough for bulls, or we will see 1.34-1.35 before bears take over.
  • #545,079
  • Aug 28, 2020 5:02am Aug 28, 2020 5:02am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} why do you think this is the last day? statistics? i trade mostly harmonic patterns, in a way I found it right. when I have the same pattern in two tf's above 15m . It would raise my success rate from 60% to 92% lately, I'm at less than 20% success ( and im try to take only target 1 everytime)/ something has changed in the last two months. this is just my feeling. some traders can say market is trending now- not ranging. maybe yes maybe now. but my pattern not working, any pair i'll go.. i see the same hoes...
There is nothing wrong with your pattern mate, the price has been weird in the past two months as things are not really adding up. It is a freestyle system of trading that works these past two months which doesn't necessarily mean that your system will still not work again.

Now to the question, I looked deeply into the weekly chart to gather data about LONGEST/MOST bullish run from weekly perspective since 2011 till date and discovered:

10/12/2017 to 21/01/2018 being 7 weeks
1.3300 - 1.4344 which is 1044 pips.

After this run price fell from 1.4344 to 1.3763 being 580 pips within 2 weeks.

Now 28/06/2020 to 23/08/2020 being 9 weeks
1.2250 - 1.3295 which is 1035 pips.

So this run has almost equalled that run and also current weekly range is also at 240 pips being the most repeated weekly range in the last 17 weeks.

I may be wrong but this type of statistic hardly fails.

Note: a research Excerpt with no obligation to follow.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #545,080
  • Aug 28, 2020 5:10am Aug 28, 2020 5:10am
Quoting VM.
My view for the next two months. Would be happy to hear other views. Reasons to go short G/U: - Brexit trade negotiations are entering the endgame, and it won't be pretty: contrary to market expectations, there is no path to a deal; - adding to Brexit, British economy will face another hit with discontinuation of furlough scheme; employers will want to lay off staff in September as scheme comes to an end in October (1 month notice period is standard in the UK); - coronavirus news will probably get better in US, while in UK, there will be a second...
I am absolutely impressed with your detailed analysis. Giving both technical and fundamental reasons to buttress your points.

1.35 is inevitable in weeks ahead but a drop between 400 - 580 pips is imminent from here at 1.3295/1.3305 area which takes us to 1.28/1.26 levels before bullish momentum can resume.

I remember build up to brexit referendum in June where price did a surge of almost 1000 pips before the crash happened, it's almost as if the market sentiment was drawn towards a mighty fall.

In all, nothing is impossible in forex trading but somethings are crystal clear by considering risk reward ... 1.33 to get 1.35 OR 1.33 to get 1.28, I will go for 1.28 as it has better distance of profit gathering than follow 1.35 that is just a stone throw with massive risk of a drop.

Just my view with no obligation to follow.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
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