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Monthly Profit - Daily Trading using SMA

  • #11,641
  • Aug 23, 2020 7:58pm Aug 23, 2020 7:58pm
Quoting SNR1251
Perfect set up. sma pointing down, candle clearly crossed SMA, bounce from BB upper line. can I get any comment on this from Oddbjorg since I am new to this strategy. Thanks. {image}
Are you guys using a shift greater than 0 on the 5 SMA now?
  • #11,642
  • Aug 24, 2020 4:20am Aug 24, 2020 4:20am
Quoting sagi
{quote} Are you guys using a shift greater than 0 on the 5 SMA now?
Hello
BB 20,2 -
SMA 5 -
All the best.
Oddbjørg
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #11,643
  • Aug 24, 2020 4:39am Aug 24, 2020 4:39am
thanks for your response but please how long do your wait for your trade to run before being in profit
  • #11,644
  • Aug 24, 2020 8:08am Aug 24, 2020 8:08am
Quoting ughojor2007
thanks for your response but please how long do your wait for your trade to run before being in profit
I go in after 2 candles - take it after 2 again.
So you understand I am not the prof around here.
They go in at the first signal and let it run. I hope they make a reply here.
I am not that good yet.
Read - breath - eat - Ghibli's chart - and go demo for some time, and you will be ready for take off.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #11,645
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:40am Aug 24, 2020 10:40am
ok please can you help with chart explanation
  • #11,646
  • Edited 12:56pm Aug 24, 2020 12:06pm | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting ughojor2007
ok please can you help with chart explanation
Hello
Yes, I will try to point you to how I learned it.
Promise to start with demo.
Read post 1 over and over, and study Ghibli´s charts.
You can turn to these notes I made once.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post10599440
Feel free to return or send a message.
Take care.
Oddbjørg
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #11,647
  • Aug 25, 2020 4:50am Aug 25, 2020 4:50am
thank am grateful this i will try it out on the demo
  • #11,648
  • Aug 27, 2020 2:56am Aug 27, 2020 2:56am
Post #11638 NZDJPY follow up

Re-test or real breakthrough?
We'll see but in anyway this is where I am glad to have given up stop-loss in favour of hedging stop orders...
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I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #11,649
  • Aug 27, 2020 3:27am Aug 27, 2020 3:27am
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  • #11,650
  • Aug 31, 2020 1:49pm Aug 31, 2020 1:49pm
Quoting Filipo1
NZDJPY This is the kind of setup I like. First chart reflecting Bk8 strategy and second chart as confirmation with weekly Ichimoku. The BB squeeze on the daily is worth our consideration. With updated charts {image} {image}
Interesting analysis. Surely can't disagree. Wondering about stop losses with the weekly consideration.
  • #11,651
  • Aug 31, 2020 2:08pm Aug 31, 2020 2:08pm
Quoting Oddbjorg
{quote} I am not that good yet.
yes you are!
  • #11,652
  • Edited 7:35pm Aug 31, 2020 3:08pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting Filipo1
Post #11638 NZDJPY follow up Re-test or real breakthrough? We'll see but in anyway this is where I am glad to have given up stop-loss in favour of hedging stop orders... {image}
We are now essentially sitting with a triple top from previous May and July highs on the D1.

Moment of truth.

Filipo, would you mind sharing how YOU set up your hedge in place of a traditional SL? Looks like price is up about 265 or so from the original short entry and a hedge has surely served you well. Do you use a full, 1:1 hedge? When do you put on the hedge . . . at some acceptable level of drawdown?

This is something I, and possibly others, need/wish to learn, but the FIFO requirement and technically no hedging in the US does complicate. Separate accounts is likely the answer.

Many thanks!

F-S
  • #11,653
  • Aug 31, 2020 7:34pm Aug 31, 2020 7:34pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
{quote} yes you are!
Thank you, friend.
Hope all is well with you.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #11,654
  • Sep 2, 2020 6:38am Sep 2, 2020 6:38am
Quoting Forest-Sea
{quote} We are now essentially sitting with a triple top from previous May and July highs on the D1. Moment of truth. Filipo, would you mind sharing how YOU set up your hedge in place of a traditional SL? Looks like price is up about 265 or so from the original short entry and a hedge has surely served you well. Do you use a full, 1:1 hedge? When do you put on the hedge . . . at some acceptable level of drawdown? This is something I, and possibly others, need/wish to learn, but the FIFO requirement and technically no hedging in the US does complicate....

Basically the idea behind a stop loss is the level at which you allow your broker to close your position and take the money you lost on it, which is really the worst thing to do if you want to last in this circus.
If this is the risk itself you want to get immunized from then a stop order in the opposite direction of your initial position will make it. You are effectively limiting your loss to the spread between the two entries whatever comes next. And the best is that usually (at least with one my usual brokers) hedging positions offset each other's margin consumption. BUT it still requires to have enough equity reserve which you always should if you don't oversize your trades...

So I place a stop buy/sell order in place of regular stop-loss but with a size of 1.5 times the size of the initial position. I manage the hedging position itself with a classic but tight stop-loss of about 40-50 pips preferably in trailing stop. Should the stop-loss on that hedging trade get triggered because price action is coming back your way (very often for good), then I would open a second position in the same direction of the initial trade and lock it at break even as soon as I got about 40-50 pips in my favor, and again assorted with a hedging stop order as described above.
Should price action keep moving opposite to my first trade I would wait for a signal to double the hedging trade and close simultaneously the initial one.
All the best.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #11,655
  • Sep 2, 2020 7:53am Sep 2, 2020 7:53am
Is this system profitable? Any take veterans?
  • #11,656
  • Sep 2, 2020 11:51am Sep 2, 2020 11:51am
Quoting eggsheeran
Is this system profitable? Any take veterans?
Yes good but need to follow rules and have to be patience, you wont get much trade and not following trend then loss.
If you believe in yourself anything is possible !!
  • #11,657
  • Sep 3, 2020 7:32pm Sep 3, 2020 7:32pm
Quoting Filipo1
{quote} Basically the idea behind a stop loss is the level at which you allow your broker to close your position and take the money you lost on it, which is really the worst thing to do if you want to last in this circus. If this is the risk itself you want to get immunized from then a stop order in the opposite direction of your initial position will make it. You are effectively limiting your loss to the spread between the two entries whatever comes next. And the best is that usually (at least with one my usual brokers) hedging positions offset...

The SL, of course, I understand . . . perhaps too well from experience of setting them too tight. Your hedging approach is most interesting and useful on a higher TF. And you seem to have your own approach which I appreciate.. I will sit back and sort out how I could enhance my efforts applying some to all of your good ideas.

Thank you so much for sharing your approach.
  • #11,658
  • Edited 11:42am Sep 4, 2020 11:15am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting Filipo1
{quote} So I place a stop buy/sell order in place of regular stop-loss but with a size of 1.5 times the size of the initial position.
I presume the 1.5 refers to lot sizing . . . actually overcompensating for the draw down against the original position? Presumably you hope the price returns to the direction of the original trade . . . and the hedge will be closed ideally with minimal loss and lots of protection. Still, wondering why you push up the hedge to 1.5 times the size of the original position? Can I infer that the stop loss on the hedge is likely to trigger from the trailing stop prior to the entry position of the hedge giving you some profit on the position?

Secondly, would you initiate the hedge at about the same price location as a traditional SL?


F-S
  • #11,659
  • Sep 7, 2020 3:31am Sep 7, 2020 3:31am
Quoting Forest-Sea
{quote} I presume the 1.5 refers to lot sizing . . . actually overcompensating for the draw down against the original position? Presumably you hope the price returns to the direction of the original trade . . . and the hedge will be closed ideally with minimal loss and lots of protection. Still, wondering why you push up the hedge to 1.5 times the size of the original position? Can I infer that the stop loss on the hedge is likely to trigger from the trailing stop prior to the entry position of the hedge giving you some profit on the position? Secondly,...
1.5 is indeed referring to lot sizing. If I initially sell 1 lot my hedging stop buy order will be set for 1.5 lot and at the level where I would have normally placed my classic stop-loss order. The rationale is that in case of adverse price action I need to accelerate the offsetting gain on the hedging position. Why? Simply because adverse price action could be short lived in case of stop hunting or liquidity test like the recent 1.20 on EURUSD. That’s also the justification for a trailing stop-loss on the hedging trade.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #11,660
  • Sep 7, 2020 4:44am Sep 7, 2020 4:44am
Hello, here's my first try with the system in case I did something wrong
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