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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #541,661
  • Aug 8, 2020 9:30pm Aug 8, 2020 9:30pm
Quoting SCopier
{image}
Your PP reminds me of the good old days...
Le$$ I$ More
  • #541,662
  • Aug 9, 2020 12:03am Aug 9, 2020 12:03am
Quoting Bones
Ok you point to the Aug candle so I looked ,surely that candle went another 200 pips after a 684 candle So direct retrace on that from open open is 293.The April candle is what you're after ,the month doesn't matter maybe oct 2011-but note these candles are directly against the bear apart from April. You're better to look for similar sets ups regardless of months ,it's just an observation.Also check what kind of weekly you need as a signal rather than what we see today for straight reversal. {quote} {image} {image}
That April 2011 had lower wick length like this July 2020 and May 2011 followed up with aggressive sell with little or no upper wick. Also July 2011 had a lower wick of 270 pips while the measurement of July 2011 Low to August 2011 High contained 937 pips move. This July 2020 low to August 2020 high already contains 926 pips which has almost equalled the July-August distance of 2011.

Though August 2011 had 195 pips upper wick before fall while August 2020 so far only has 111 pips upper wick at the moment, one cannot ignore that these two years in focus have similar July-August distance so far and the two years are not brought out for candle pattern similarities other than distance similarities.

The movement of this July-August 2020 nature usually meet a retracement of at least 330 pips or a wave correction of around 580+ pips. I will go for the retracement which is somewhat realistic to attain 1.2854 level.

In addition, I had already concluded that price will attack 1.35 by October/December since May 15 when price closed the week at 1.2104 level. My obsession for open to Low distance of Julys exposed me to horrible draw down which could have been avoided but such obsession will never happen again. I do rather stick to my research applications which have proven consistent since 2016.

Anyone is free to agree or disagree but there is no obligation to follow this write up.

Peace.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #541,663
  • Aug 9, 2020 1:54am Aug 9, 2020 1:54am
Quoting Notme3232
{quote} You call me ? I am here... hahahah.. is just joke because i am notme
ha ha..
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #541,664
  • Aug 9, 2020 2:46am Aug 9, 2020 2:46am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} That April 2011 had lower wick length like this July 2020 and May 2011 followed up with aggressive sell with little or no upper wick. Also July 2011 had a lower wick of 270 pips while the measurement of July 2011 Low to August 2011 High contained 937 pips move. This July 2020 low to August 2020 high already contains 926 pips which has almost equalled the July-August distance of 2011. Though August 2011 had 195 pips upper wick before fall while August 2020 so far only has 111 pips upper wick at the moment, one cannot ignore that these two...
Looking at the current weekly candle structure it is similar to 16th Sept 2019 and if it plays out the same then expect a retrace to the 2840 region which is in the vicinity of 2820 that I previously posted.
The alternative scenario I previously posted was price heading down to 2980 then bouncing of there and a continuation of the bull run...
With the US stimulus package looking to be announced Monday then all bets could be off....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #541,665
  • Aug 9, 2020 4:54am Aug 9, 2020 4:54am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} That April 2011 had lower wick length like this July 2020 and May 2011 followed up with aggressive sell with little or no upper wick. Also July 2011 had a lower wick of 270 pips while the measurement of July 2011 Low to August 2011 High contained 937 pips move. This July 2020 low to August 2020 high already contains 926 pips which has almost equalled the July-August distance of 2011. Though August 2011 had 195 pips upper wick before fall while August 2020 so far only has 111 pips upper wick at the moment, one cannot ignore that these two...
You know the market can change it's dynamics while were trading and sometimes we don't realise until too late.
What was working well for you suddenly wasn't, the market changed massively with the US dollar going from strength to weakness and hasn't been battered like this since the GFC
The signs now show there could be recovery in the US dollar.....
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #541,666
  • Edited 2:09pm Aug 9, 2020 5:45am | Edited 2:09pm
... if you look at that minor dly swing hi=prev res = pot res 3172- 3212 (Red arrow on Daily chart below) ...there have been 5 attempts to get upside of it and each have failed resulting in a sell-off - the last being last week's 3180 hi. If res becomes weaker each time it is tested then a 6th attempt has a good chance of succeeding ?
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #541,667
  • Aug 9, 2020 5:52am Aug 9, 2020 5:52am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} You know the market can change it's dynamics while were trading and sometimes we don't realise until too late. What was working well for you suddenly wasn't, the market changed massively with the US dollar going from strength to weakness and hasn't been battered like this since the GFC The signs now show there could be recovery in the US dollar.....
Like the Usual July Dynamics of always having open to low distance of 200 pips which happened from 2011 - 2019 and yet failed to happen in 2020. I'm not too strong biased anymore to expect definite outcome of prices but certain things are consistent in the market which are no perfect bullish market and no perfect bearish market.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #541,668
  • Aug 9, 2020 5:58am Aug 9, 2020 5:58am
... a wider view of the daily chart below shows how friday's lo was just into that prev dly sw lo = prev supp=pot supp down to 2980...the 1hr/4hr parts of that are much shallower ie 2985-80.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #541,669
  • Edited 6:17am Aug 9, 2020 6:01am | Edited 6:17am
ok ,please this is only discussing what you post .I would agree theres merit in ranges and looking at history for sure.
If it fell to 12700 next then I wouldn't think its retracing for up.
When I look at the chart theres the very same set up right there ,regardless of what month they were printed as that has no bearing .No year is the same without doubt, but patterns do repeat generally.
It could happen that it falls from there because it is range ,but I'm still thinking thats unlikely on pure candle...

What bears need is a believable weekly or collection of weekly to go against it far, which is pretty much what I posted above.An upper wick weekly would be the best gift to bears ,for that it needs to go higher.The weekly we look at could work better in a different kind of market.

Quoting Georginson
{quote} That April 2011 had lower wick length like this July 2020 and May 2011 followed up with aggressive sell with little or no upper wick. Also July 2011 had a lower wick of 270 pips while the measurement of July 2011 Low to August 2011 High contained 937 pips move. This July 2020 low to August 2020 high already contains 926 pips which has almost equalled the July-August distance of 2011. Though August 2011 had 195 pips upper wick before fall while August 2020 so far only has 111 pips upper wick at the moment, one cannot ignore that these two...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #541,670
  • Aug 9, 2020 6:13am Aug 9, 2020 6:13am
Looks like a battle of TL's.
The weekly came off the descending TL and touched down precisely on the broken ascending TL.

A daily bearish close back below the line would be a positive bearish retracing signal.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #541,671
  • Aug 9, 2020 6:13am Aug 9, 2020 6:13am
... the immediate fundie based question going into market open is what effect on $ Trump's executive orders bypassing the ongoing congressional negotiations re bailout package/covid support ?
Trader with an Edge.
  • #541,672
  • Aug 9, 2020 6:16am Aug 9, 2020 6:16am
Quoting Bones
ok ,please this is only discussing what you post .I would agree theres merit in ranges and looking at history for sure. If it fell to 12700 next then I wouldn't think its retracing for up. When I look at the chart theres the very same set up right there ,regardless of what month they were printed as that has no bearing .No year is the same without doubt, but patterns do repeat generally. It could happen that it falls from there because it is range ,but I'm still thinking thats unlikely on pure candle... What bears need is a believable weekly or...
Well said.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #541,673
  • Aug 9, 2020 6:18am Aug 9, 2020 6:18am
Quoting Bones
... What bears need is a believable weekly or collection of weekly to go against it far.... {quote} {image}

Your chart says it all really- From a technical pov, and from a probability point of view more upside is more likely than not - it is probably just a case of how deep is the pullback ? $ bulls need a real game changer for anything else ?
Trader with an Edge.
  • #541,674
  • Aug 9, 2020 6:24am Aug 9, 2020 6:24am
Here is my view for next week. Weekly chart is bearish, and looking at money managment and hedge fund they are short too. For my opinion the fundamental for the long view regarding uk and usa didnt change. Last week he had some important news form usa (payroll) and uk ( bank of england) and the next week there is gdp and unemployement rate for uk and if they miss the expectation for one of that or both we could see a strong move down.

Technical analysis call for retracement and rsi in 4h has a strong divergence.

Statistically ( past 20y) august is not a good month for the British pound and weekly it has an avarage of 300 pips (last 14 weeks). I guess that potentially we could see a move down to 1.28.

This is my opinion, maybe im wrong, and if someone disagree i would like to know their opinion
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Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #541,675
  • Aug 9, 2020 7:10am Aug 9, 2020 7:10am
Quoting Bones
ok ,please this is only discussing what you post .I would agree theres merit in ranges and looking at history for sure. If it fell to 12700 next then I wouldn't think its retracing for up. When I look at the chart theres the very same set up right there ,regardless of what month they were printed as that has no bearing .No year is the same without doubt, but patterns do repeat generally. It could happen that it falls from there because it is range ,but I'm still thinking thats unlikely on pure candle... What bears need is a believable weekly or...
From your chart September 2019 (1.1957) to December 2019 high (1.3513) = 1556 pips distance.

Now let's overrule the March low of 1.1409 which was pandemic driven and pick May low of 1.2077.

May low of 1.2077 + 1556 pips = 1.3633. The current price being 1.3053 is just 580 pips away from this projected high and we have 4 and half month left to end the year.

Considering that 6 years December month of the last 9 years December month have produced the highest or lowest prices of the year, adds credence that we will likely see price at 1.35 at the end of this year 2020.

Now the big question is what will price be doing between now and that December 2020? My take is some consolidation between 1.27 - 1.35 level between August and December, while I see a realistic 1.27/1.28 level this August, I do not see 1.33 now in August until September before 1.33 may be seen.

As always nothing is constant and the key word for me now is trade what is presented with some future plan in mind.

Note: this is just a write up based on my research perspective and no obligation to follow.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #541,676
  • Aug 9, 2020 7:24am Aug 9, 2020 7:24am
Hi friends)!
Gu, I think with probability 85-90% will going down to 1.30
Short-term trend down, then was pullback to fibo 50% after NFP's move, and forming flag's figure.
Then need to watch for 1.30 is the key price
maybe bounce and down again
maybe bounce and continue going up
now i sell, my tp 1.30
maybe wrong
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Like your wife says, hold the fucking position until I tell you I'm done.
  • #541,677
  • Aug 9, 2020 7:30am Aug 9, 2020 7:30am
trading discussions.

Appreciated.

Intraday only.
  • #541,678
  • Aug 9, 2020 8:08am Aug 9, 2020 8:08am
Quoting morfes2
{quote} https://youtu.be/cRAJIzmgxZM
Inserted Video
  • #541,679
  • Aug 9, 2020 8:48am Aug 9, 2020 8:48am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} From your chart September 2019 (1.1957) to December 2019 high (1.3513) = 1556 pips distance. Now let's overrule the March low of 1.1409 which was pandemic driven and pick May low of 1.2077. May low of 1.2077 + 1556 pips = 1.3633. The current price being 1.3053 is just 580 pips away from this projected high and we have 4 and half month left to end the year. Considering that 6 years December month of the last 9 years December month have produced the highest or lowest prices of the year, adds credence that we will likely see price at 1.35 at...
You decided a cut off date ...

Good.

Accept things... and move on.

No point in fighting with price and time.
Intraday only.
  • #541,680
  • Aug 9, 2020 9:12am Aug 9, 2020 9:12am
for the bears 1.3000 as well as 1.3100 seems to me important.
Intraday only.
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