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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #540,001
  • Edited 8:04am Aug 1, 2020 6:17am | Edited 8:04am
ok check the monthly, note I read that monthly before it closed....
I looked & thought that was possible from past history from that zone the way it was going ,but it did go further than I thought in one go.
It actually has a range over 800 which must break all July's from the last 10 years .You cannot call swings on range information alone, long term.
I'm defiantly never going to pin it down to, it's July ,it has to happen September...I think that discussion is over now, market proved it.
Theres something very unusual on the chart and that is a massive 1000 pip wick that allows the unusual .Market condition is range without that below support spike.

Reading higher tf before close is not the same as say an hour. Because it take's so much time ,you have that time to think about it.
If you do consider it for a moment, there be a whole host of other TF that that support it, but it's not always possible, these are much more reliable TF's since theres so much more data.
You can't with confidence say the next candle will be small like before yet.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #540,002
  • Edited 7:16am Aug 1, 2020 6:28am | Edited 7:16am
I think what is probable is a retrace ,but not a deep one ,someone said 12500 is possible and it is ...but it's not probable at all ,
Its over a massive pivot 12755 and I don't think its can take that zone next,
bearish candle seen d1 at I'd say its trustworthy, with more data=side then fall -maybe to the high/line {1.32}
We have to see open.

Inverted hammer + Confirmation on the monthly is what we see, probable outlook to top of range, within 8 weeks.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #540,003
  • Edited 7:56am Aug 1, 2020 6:39am | Edited 7:56am
it's got to escape the defined channel, correction within that run.Could be break and test blue line.
I go into the week bearish, without any other data.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #540,004
  • Aug 1, 2020 6:56am Aug 1, 2020 6:56am
Quoting morfes2
{quote} https://youtu.be/nSiAlWxTuvk
Inserted Video
  • #540,005
  • Aug 1, 2020 7:23am Aug 1, 2020 7:23am
Quoting Bones
it's got to escape the defined channel, correction within that run.Could be break and test blue line. I go into the week bearish, without any other data. {image}
To help your bearish case...

Money managers are increasing their bearish bet, a lot
When they did it a few weeks ago, at the same rate, 7 weeks of short increase in a row, price dropped (550 pips weekly high/low range)

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #540,006
  • Aug 1, 2020 7:40am Aug 1, 2020 7:40am
the price is currently at support.

It might bounce from here....
Or
It might find recovery after S1. 3041

The target could be 3143, R1.

tHIS is only for Monday.

i am interested in capturing few pips with accuracy and money.

Not interested in big analysis,i am day trader.
Intraday only.
  • #540,007
  • Aug 1, 2020 7:42am Aug 1, 2020 7:42am
Last friday was a mess to me, as the PA was too much choppy at NY open.

Lost money in NY session.

Then I decided to call off for the day.
Intraday only.
  • #540,008
  • Aug 1, 2020 7:49am Aug 1, 2020 7:49am
If I had followed my system with discipline, I would not have lost on Friday.

Look at my 1 min chart.

There is sell entry only at 3150.

I tried short above 3150 to capture top and paid price for the same.

I am disappointed and regret for my action.

Nothing wrong in going back to Drawing board to see what mistake I did.
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Intraday only.
  • #540,009
  • Aug 1, 2020 7:52am Aug 1, 2020 7:52am
Quoting trumps
Not convinced of any significant reversal. That daily looks enticing, but would have expected a deeper body. The weekly not losing any momentum and thinking 1.32-1.34 next week.
Engulfing H4 Candle
Triple Tapped Trendline

I agree it needs a few more elements to convince me..
Although if i had realized the first two when the price was right at the top, i would have placed sell trades there (My bad)

Theres is nothing to stop the price retesting up again
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  • #540,010
  • Edited 8:16am Aug 1, 2020 8:01am | Edited 8:16am
W/E Analysis cont....

Upside potential Res & SBR (Supp Becomes Res) analysis

NB: (1.) Don't know Monday's open price yet so can't include Mthly/Wkly/Dly floor pivots yet. (2.) Analysis covers the 30day adr+ to the upside. (3.) Analysis doesn't include any fibs of the move down from fri's hi as no fractal swing lo on 1hr yet to plot the fibs to.


>3088-97 prev 1hr sw lo zone = prev supp = pot sbr
>3107-25 prev 1hr sw lo zone = prev supp = pot sbr

> 3150-3200-3209 prev dly/wkly sw hi zone = prev res = pot res incl:
3163-70 prev 1hr/4hr sw hi zone = prev res = pot res (fri’s hi)
3170 ish Wkly desc t/line joining 4376 & 3515 on mon’s dly
candle

> 3213 50% 5016-1411
> 3239 1.764% ext of 2813-2252
> 3243 61.8% 4376-1411
> 3255-84 Prev Dly sw hi zone = prev res = pot res
Trader with an Edge.
  • #540,011
  • Aug 1, 2020 8:05am Aug 1, 2020 8:05am
Quoting Headland
W/E Analysis cont.... Upside potential Res & SBR (Supp Becomes Res) analysis NB: (1.) Don't know Monday's open price yet so can't include Mthly/Wkly/Dly floor pivots yet. (2.) Analysis covers the 30day adr+ to the upside. (3.) Analysis doesn't include any fibs of the move down from fri's hi as no fractal swing lo on 1hr yet to plot the fibs to. >3088-97 prev 1hr sw lo zone = prev supp = pot sbr >3107-25 prev 1hr sw lo zone = prev supp = pot sbr > 3150-3200-3209 prev dly/wkly sw hi zone = prev res = pot res incl: 3163-70 prev 1hr/4hr sw hi zone =...
This is very complicated. Looks like a Flight plan.

Up or dowm?
  • #540,012
  • Aug 1, 2020 8:05am Aug 1, 2020 8:05am
Quoting mkvy
{quote} Engulfing H4 Candle Triple Tapped Trendline I agree it needs a few more elements to convince me.. Although if i had realized the first two when the price was right at the top, i would have placed sell trades there (My bad) Theres is nothing to stop the price retesting up again {image}
Yes I see and watch the lower tf (4hr), but price diidn't quite reach the TL on my chart.
We do have a beautiful 1.61ext bearish pattern formed on Friday which is near impossible to miss for pattern traders.
However, there is strong weekly zone at 1.32 which looks very attractive.

If it does dive hard from here, 1.26-2630 on the weekly looks like a magnet for price for a powerful rebound.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #540,013
  • Aug 1, 2020 8:08am Aug 1, 2020 8:08am
Quoting navk
the price is currently at support. It might bounce from here.... Or It might find recovery after S1. 3041 The target could be 3143, R1. tHIS is only for Monday. i am interested in capturing few pips with accuracy and money. Not interested in big analysis,i am day trader.
how about some...
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #540,014
  • Aug 1, 2020 8:12am Aug 1, 2020 8:12am
Just to answer a question as to how I use potential supp/res.

General points: Firstly, everything is potential supp or res , just because an area saw it last time doesn't mean to say it will on a re-test. Secondly, in strong trends supp or res is more likely to break (even after a tradeable bounce) than hold. Thirdly, the more times a pot supp/res is hit the weaker it becomes.

In order of importance the 4 x pot supp/res factors I use, and starting with most important;

1. Previous fractal price swing hi's or lo's (primary factor.)
2. Fibs and Trend lines (secondary factors.)
3. Floor pivots (tertiary factor.)

I look for a confluence of factors where it exists and have certain rules about acting on a set-up (s) that may present themselves on 1 or t/f's below that the pot supp/res/sbr/rbs is present on...these are based on the combination of factors borne out of empirical evidence as to what is likely to be most likely in providing. supp/res on a retest. Time passed is also important in these rules relative to the t/f. These are part of my edge and as such are proprietary so I won't reveal them here, suffice it to say there are enough clues in the statement above
Trader with an Edge.
  • #540,015
  • Aug 1, 2020 8:19am Aug 1, 2020 8:19am
Quoting mkvy
{quote} This is very complicated. Looks like a Flight plan. Up or dowm?
Lol... in a way it is - except I , like you, or anyone else don't know where the plane is heading - it's magical mystery tour - destination unknown. Re the greater probability I refer you to a previous post I made on Fri after market close, an extract of which is replicated below.

Conclusion:
Given the recent history of classic bearish and bullish pinbars at potential fractal sw hi/lo's respectively, on the dly t/f and the weakening of the 1hr uptrend in particular friday, it suggests that there will be more downside but is up against a strong uptrend on 4hr/daily/weekly and very bullish closes on those later two t/f's. August is an historically 'quieter' peak holiday month but this year of covid etc could be different. Depends on the ever changing fundamentals (which the technicals graphically reflect) and with the Boe/Mpc stuff this coming week we could see a firming of £ demand after the pullback if, like last time, they are as 'less dovish' than was expected last time - this time round ? With a 'firming' economy' post 1st wave covid this is more probable than not but it doesn't mean to say it will happen lol !
Trader with an Edge.
  • #540,016
  • Aug 1, 2020 8:37am Aug 1, 2020 8:37am
this work is highly likely right ,Coreg is a super great contributor ,
theres likely another impulse in it, thats shorter than the last, after correction a of some kind thats not too deep
Thats what I just said


Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} unreal... {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #540,017
  • Aug 1, 2020 9:14am Aug 1, 2020 9:14am
5 days without looking at charts ... I waited for the month to close. I will still study the charts for the next month.... so the candle has overtaken the other. maybe that month could be a Pulback candle.
  • #540,018
  • Aug 1, 2020 9:23am Aug 1, 2020 9:23am
Quoting Bones
this work is highly likely right ,Coreg is a super great contributor , theres likely another impulse in it, thats shorter than the last, after correction a of some kind thats not too deep Thats what I just said {quote}
Well on the monthly chart I see price has broken above the swing high average of 2995 and to drag the average across this level price should make the 3616.

Note price has not broken a swing high average for a long long time they have all been swing low breaks since year 2014.
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  • #540,019
  • Aug 1, 2020 9:23am Aug 1, 2020 9:23am
GU, I think a temporary top is in place. I expect a correction to 1.29 and then going up again. I don't see 1.28 happening (although it is a great level for a long trade), but if it goes below 1.28 and breaks the TL, I will reassess.

Also, I ran an updated stats on that type of candle (gravestone doji, dragonfly doji).
based on 128 observations (GU, EU, AU, UJ), taking a trade with 1:1 RRR.
78 W (61%)
31 L (24%)
19 B/E (15%)
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  • #540,020
  • Aug 1, 2020 9:37am Aug 1, 2020 9:37am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Yes I see and watch the lower tf (4hr), but price diidn't quite reach the TL on my chart. We do have a beautiful 1.61ext bearish pattern formed on Friday which is near impossible to miss for pattern traders. However, there is strong weekly zone at 1.32 which looks very attractive. If it does dive hard from here, 1.26-2630 on the weekly looks like a magnet for price for a powerful rebound.
Thats the problem with trendlines. Every Broker prints slightly different bars..Some print an extra on sunday... You also get differences between timeframes..

On a 15 minute chart compared to 4 hour
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