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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #538,981
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:47am Jul 29, 2020 3:47am
Quoting knkie
{quote} i luv to troll spammers and scammers
I wonder who the spammers and scammers are ...
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #538,982
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:47am Jul 29, 2020 3:47am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Yeah I do remember Elbert told me this 1.28 will break out and it's proven to be a correct call... The only correlation I see now is May Low 1.2073 to 1.2812 June High contained 739 pips... Then a rebound to 1.2250 that same June being 562 pips retracement. Here a break of that June High is certain invitation of higher move to 1.2990/1.3000 area which serves as a conincidence of the below illustrated move June Low 1.2250 to 1.2975 July high so far also contains 725 pips .... Then do we now rule out a retracement to 1.26/1.25 area considering...

.. shifting to hi-probability chance (as you have determined from your analysis) of recovering your capital (ie b/e) on these trades is a sensible measure as price moved against you.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #538,983
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:49am Jul 29, 2020 3:49am
Missed first push.
Waiting for retracement, maybe to the pivot line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #538,984
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:49am Jul 29, 2020 3:49am
Quoting Headland
{quote} .. shifting to hi-probability chance (as you have determined from your analysis) of recovering your capital (ie b/e) on these trades is a sensible measure as price moved against you.
Well said mate. Can't agree more.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #538,985
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:49am Jul 29, 2020 3:49am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Yeah I do remember Elbert told me this 1.28 will break out and it's proven to be a correct call... The only correlation I see now is May Low 1.2073 to 1.2812 June High contained 739 pips... Then a rebound to 1.2250 that same June being 562 pips retracement. Here a break of that June High is certain invitation of higher move to 1.2990/1.3000 area which serves as a conincidence of the below illustrated move June Low 1.2250 to 1.2975 July high so far also contains 725 pips .... Then do we now rule out a retracement to 1.26/1.25 area considering...
I don't think your range stats work
maybe you should do something more technical than statistical
Make money by doing the opposite of Giveachance aka loser
  • #538,986
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:53am Jul 29, 2020 3:53am
Quoting nessus94
{quote} I don't think your range stats work maybe you should do something more technical than statistical

you can't say that - only the analyst (ie G) knows whether an edge exists from this his take/method/logic applied to this type of rage based analysis - we are not privy to this info so it is not a valid thing to do to judge on one instance...I would need to see at least 50 instances to just begin to know if an edge may exist.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #538,987
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:53am Jul 29, 2020 3:53am
I see so many people here with a variety of different ideas which of course is great and of course everyone trades their own way obviously....but there is one thing i notice alot, people tend to trade against the market volume and try to pick tops or bottoms, now yes whilst this does net you a handsom profit how often can you accuratley do that.


random poll

Would you rather have lets say for example 75%-80% accuracy

OR

Sniper entires?


For me id pick the accuracy
  • #538,988
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:53am Jul 29, 2020 3:53am
Quoting Moty
Missed first push. Waiting for retracement, maybe to the pivot line {image}
You accepted losses in short trades ?
Intraday only.
  • #538,989
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:55am Jul 29, 2020 3:55am
Quoting navk
{quote} You accepted losses in short trades ?
navk, Please explain what you mean.
  • #538,990
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:58am Jul 29, 2020 3:58am
Quoting navk
{quote} You accepted losses in short trades ?

He must learn to change the position.
  • #538,991
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:59am Jul 29, 2020 3:59am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} i wish i had the option make some pips for yah boi (meh)
Go back to this date . And this guy Bones will remember he got caught up in a trader buy the name of HDA . He was saying it’s going this way !!! Marvin was following his trades and eventually lost his account about £8k I think .. when he lost his account the trade started going his way .. so even them days nothing changes .
  • #538,992
  • Jul 29, 2020 3:59am Jul 29, 2020 3:59am
Quoting Amelonro
{quote} navk, Please explain what you mean.
when you follow someone with your eyes closed you do not understand sometimes just a small talk
  • #538,993
  • Jul 29, 2020 4:02am Jul 29, 2020 4:02am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #538,994
  • Jul 29, 2020 4:04am Jul 29, 2020 4:04am
Quoting nessus94
{quote} I don't think your range stats work maybe you should do something more technical than statistical
2011 to 2020 JULY RANGES

July 2011 High 1.6469 - 1.5780 Low = 689 pips
July 2012 High 1.5766 - 1.5392 Low = 374 pips
July 2013 High 1.5433 - 1.4813 Low = 620 pips
July 2014 High 1.7189 - 1.6856 Low = 333 pips
July 2015 High 1.5731 - 1.5329 Low = 402 pips
July 2016 High 1.3479 - 1.2795 Low = 684 pips
July 2017 High 1.3223 - 1.2811 Low = 412 pips
July 2018 High 1.3362 - 1.2956 Low = 406 pips
July 2019 High 1.2704 - 1.2118 Low = 586 pips

July 2020 High 1.2975* - 1.2358 Low = 617 pips

Minimum Range = 333 pips
Average Range = 511 pips
Maximum Range = 689 pips

Now the question is has the current range exceeded these July ranges in the last 10 years?

if I had sold when the range was 400 pips at 1.2758 and another sell at 1.2908 550 pips range level using modest stakes at each level, would I have been wrong?

My mistake this July is I already had a bearish bias ignoring my proven defensive wait and see range principles before placing my trades this July.

I was doing too much tweaks to my analysis by considering open to low distance of Julys since 2011 to 2019 which have all had 200 pips below the monthly open, this month happens to have just 40 pips below open... My bad mistake which I will rectify.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #538,995
  • Jul 29, 2020 4:05am Jul 29, 2020 4:05am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} when you follow someone with your eyes closed you do not understand sometimes just a small talk
"Listen to what the market is saying about others, not what others are saying about the market." — Richard D. Wyckoff
Trader with an Edge.
  • #538,996
  • Jul 29, 2020 4:05am Jul 29, 2020 4:05am
Quoting shahab8b
I see 1.30 as the first target for this move, 1.32 will be next, maybe after some retracement. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13079233 {image}
GBPUSD, on its way to the target @ 1.30. possible short setup @ 1.30
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #538,997
  • Jul 29, 2020 4:06am Jul 29, 2020 4:06am
Quoting Neil0163
I see so many people here with a variety of different ideas which of course is great and of course everyone trades their own way obviously....but there is one thing i notice alot, people tend to trade against the market volume and try to pick tops or bottoms, now yes whilst this does net you a handsom profit how often can you accuratley do that. random poll Would you rather have lets say for example 75%-80% accuracy OR Sniper entires? For me id pick the accuracy
People want accuracy but the mindset in them doesn't want to miss few pips and hence try to pick the tops and bottoms.

The mindset of traders always looks for reversal rather than looking for continuation. As a result let the loosing trades run for long time and closeout on the winning trades early.

For me, I always wait for the PA reversal, I may loose out few hundred pips, but that is fine, later I can ride in the correct direction. This minimizes losing trades.
  • #538,998
  • Jul 29, 2020 4:09am Jul 29, 2020 4:09am
... we now have 8 closed daily candles all consecutively bullish .
Trader with an Edge.
  • #538,999
  • Jul 29, 2020 4:10am Jul 29, 2020 4:10am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} 2011 to 2020 JULY RANGES July 2011 High 1.6469 - 1.5780 Low = 689 pips July 2012 High 1.5766 - 1.5392 Low = 374 pips July 2013 High 1.5433 - 1.4813 Low = 620 pips July 2014 High 1.7189 - 1.6856 Low = 333 pips July 2015 High 1.5731 - 1.5329 Low = 402 pips July 2016 High 1.3479 - 1.2795 Low = 684 pips July 2017 High 1.3223 - 1.2811 Low = 412 pips July 2018 High 1.3362 - 1.2956 Low = 406 pips July 2019 High 1.2704 - 1.2118 Low = 586 pips July 2020 High 1.2975* - 1.2358 Low = 617 pips Minimum Range = 333 pips Average Range = 511 pips Maximum...
Ok, good stats, but stats are meant to be broken
You are already losing 20-25% of your account now, what if we spike to 1.32 tonight? you'd be losing 50%

What's next then? when will you stop your short? or you will stay short until you are right?

I don't see any good MM in your system, if you do please share...
Make money by doing the opposite of Giveachance aka loser
  • #539,000
  • Jul 29, 2020 4:11am Jul 29, 2020 4:11am
Quoting Headland
... we now have 8 closed daily candles all consecutively bullish .
Same as consecutive bullish days run to June 10 at 1.2812 level, also that day was FOMC Wednesday.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
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