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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #538,881
  • Jul 28, 2020 2:29pm Jul 28, 2020 2:29pm
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3020! Next
  • #538,882
  • Jul 28, 2020 2:31pm Jul 28, 2020 2:31pm
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} No expert but my view on it is. 56k Long, 6k Short. So long term bias is still very much long however the -8000 long positions shows that a percentage of those long's are expecting some sort of pullback in order to get in at a cheaper price, hence why they exited the positions. However they have not placed shorts meaning that they are not expecting much downside. I may be wrong but thats my understanding of it.

Understood. Another trader uses these and stated these are long term contracts. That being said I get the impression these folks don't jump out then back in for pull backs because they are long term? I need more research on this. Thanks for the interaction.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #538,883
  • Jul 28, 2020 2:42pm Jul 28, 2020 2:42pm
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mmmm a rethink here need to watch .. agai 5 min crossover rule
  • #538,884
  • Jul 28, 2020 2:50pm Jul 28, 2020 2:50pm
Quoting Bones
George I'm sure it looks like I'm attacking you but I hope you know its not that , what I want to say is the same thing I said before you started the bearish outlook ,500 pips ago. Take the lead from the monthly if you want to forecast over distance.The last candle should have given doubt at least.I hope you continue to share, no need for a disclaimer... There are many ways to skin this cat, add something more solid is what I'm saying to your work. You do not know it will go there for sure on ranges, but I agree it's entering a trouble...
I did expect a volatile July from the start but with bearish bias from mid 1.25 to 1.27 were my selling plans. The range expectation was around 400 - 560 pips according to my estimate.

There are two ways I could have approached it OFFENSIVE APPROACH by taking a position due to bearish bias Before at least 400 pips distance is clearly attained and DEFENSIVE APPROACH by waiting for at least 400 pips distance to be seen before placing my first trade of the month.

If I had gone defensive, my first sell would have been

Low 1.2358 + 400 pips minimum expected range = 1.2758

Low 1.2358 + 520 pips average expected range = 1.2878

Low 1.2358 + 620 pips maximum expected range= 1.2978

Which means

My sell 1 level should have been 1.2758 (4% stake)
My sell 2 level should have been 1.2878 (3% stake)
My sell 3 level should have been 1.2978 (3% stake)

With 120 pips target for each level.

Well as it stands, I will only wait for recovery at my average selling price of 1.2680 to break even. My offensive didn't work but defensive could have worked with less equity exposure.

I will be extremely defensive in August for sure and with no direction bias, I do rather wait for clear distance or trend pattern before launching trades.

This July range as at time of typing is still 595 pips which is the highest monthly range since January 2020 (excluding March)
Last year July had a bearish range of 586 pips and this July 2020 has already met up with it. So I see reversal any where from here.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #538,885
  • Jul 28, 2020 2:57pm Jul 28, 2020 2:57pm
A rolling stone will gather speed . And this looks like it’s rolling over now . I could be wrong but we will trade what we see
  • #538,886
  • Jul 28, 2020 3:03pm Jul 28, 2020 3:03pm
20 pip retracement at the NY close. Nice small profit taking. US30 took a dive towards the end sending the Dollar north a bit. I smell some fakeness. Nap time.
Be back after these kind words from local sponsors.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #538,887
  • Jul 28, 2020 3:14pm Jul 28, 2020 3:14pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I am new to COT, so help me out here please. From what I can discern on the 14th there were 64000 Long GBP positions. Now there are 56000. Meaning the long term bias for the GBP is fading from long to short?
very longterm (2-3months maybe?). but it depends, i try to match the report to what is happening the previous week.
  • #538,888
  • Jul 28, 2020 3:17pm Jul 28, 2020 3:17pm
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} No expert but my view on it is. 56k Long, 6k Short. So long term bias is still very much long however the -8000 long positions shows that a percentage of those long's are expecting some sort of pullback in order to get in at a cheaper price, hence why they exited the positions. However they have not placed shorts meaning that they are not expecting much downside. I may be wrong but thats my understanding of it.
nice, this was my analysis, hence i started to add more longs last week, but took half off, even though my stop would have held. GU was a good indicator of GBP bulls, but UJ drop seems to have been needed to get good fills on GJ, the best USD cross imo.
  • #538,889
  • Jul 28, 2020 3:20pm Jul 28, 2020 3:20pm
Quoting gatenio
{quote} It seems to me that you are missing some moving average down there.. between the “green tea” to the the “green watermelon”
nah, they are prime numbers 1-200, but maybe im missing one, hope not lol
  • #538,890
  • Edited 3:44pm Jul 28, 2020 3:22pm | Edited 3:44pm
Quoting Bones
George I'm sure it looks like I'm attacking you but I hope you know its not that , what I want to say is the same thing I said before you started the bearish outlook ,500 pips ago. Take the lead from the monthly if you want to forecast over distance.The last candle should have given some doubt at least.I hope you continue to share, no need for a disclaimer... There are many ways to skin this cat, add something more solid is what I'm saying, to your work. You do not know it will go there for sure on ranges, but I agree it's entering a...
My bearish bias started from 1.25/1.26 levels not from 1.24 level.


Now about the October 2019 candle. The leg started from September 2019 low (1.1957) which happened to be 2019 low and a surge to October high of 1.3011 which translates to 1055 pips movement before retracement to 1.2767 November low which meant 245 pips retracement.

Now a critical look at that October 2019 movement in comparison to this July 2020 movement

September 2019 low of 1.1957 (2019 low) extended to as far as December 2019 high of 1.3513 (2019 high) this amounts to 1556 pips range, which happens to be the yearly range of 2019 as a whole. After September 2019 to December 2019 1556 pips range, there was retracement from 1.3513 to 1.2904 (December 23 2019) low which means 1.3513 - 1.2904 = 609 pips retracement within 2 weeks

March 2020 low of 1.1409 (2020 low) now extended to as far as July 2020 high so far at 1.2951. This amounts to 1542 pips range as at stands. My take now is that 1542 pips is already a coincidence what happened from September 2019 - December 2019 which means October 2019 move also gets factored in. It will be very difficult for price to continue with this buying momentum without retracing between 350 - 600 pips as witnessed last year December after 1556 pips range was completed. So assuming July does a high of 1.2970, I will less minimum expected retracement of 350 pips which will give me 1.2620.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #538,891
  • Jul 28, 2020 3:25pm Jul 28, 2020 3:25pm
Well, looks to me like a potential return to 1.28xx region is on the cards before the boosters kick in again




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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #538,892
  • Jul 28, 2020 3:26pm Jul 28, 2020 3:26pm
Quoting Aghostinplai
I'm thinking about closing my long trade since 1.2550 last week monday
Closed @ 1.2935.. what a ride that was.
  • #538,893
  • Jul 28, 2020 3:49pm Jul 28, 2020 3:49pm
Quoting Bones
George I'm sure it looks like I'm attacking you but I hope you know its not that , what I want to say is the same thing I said before you started the bearish outlook ,500 pips ago. Take the lead from the monthly if you want to forecast over distance.The last candle should have given some doubt at least.I hope you continue to share, no need for a disclaimer... There are many ways to skin this cat, add something more solid is what I'm saying, to your work. You do not know it will go there for sure on ranges, but I agree it's entering a...
Bones, it's not rocket science, @Georginson was deadly wrong (that's his rights) end of the story...please don't skin the cat... ... I don't play monthly TF but I do this on daily and weekly ranges for a very long time and it works for me well...Keep posting buddy your good analysis. Very much appreciated.
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Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #538,894
  • Jul 28, 2020 3:49pm Jul 28, 2020 3:49pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Now about the October 2019 candle. The leg started from September 2019 low (1.1957) which happened to be 2019 low and a surge to October high of 1.3011 which translates to 1055 pips movement before retracement to 1.2767 November low which meant 245 pips retracement. Now a critical look at that October 2019 movement in comparison to this July 2020 movement September 2019 low of 1.1957 (2019 low) extended to as far as December 2019 high of 1.3513 (2019 high) this amounts to 1556 pips range, which happens to be the yearly range of 2019 as a...
the market is never coming back down so the earlier you accept this fact the better for you and i've made 3 times my account size the day i stopped following you and your sell mentally, you have been shorting since 1.25 ish and market is at 1.29 ish that's over 400pips against you and it's 3 days left to end the month so face reality
  • #538,895
  • Jul 28, 2020 4:01pm Jul 28, 2020 4:01pm
Quoting epzero
{quote} the market is never coming back down so the earlier you accept this fact the better for you and i've made 3 times my account size the day i stopped following you and your sell mentally, you have been shorting since 1.25 ish and market is at 1.29 ish that's over 400pips against you and it's 3 days left to end the month so face reality
I did try to ignore you as much as I can but realized you will never grow up just as you said price will never go down. Keep buying to the moon and reach for the Stars. I remember you once said you were on a buy EURJPY initially for some weeks and it felt like it will never go up to recover then you closed all transactions and took a sell, then 2 days after you took a sell price started flying up to even as much as 600 pips against you, which if you had stuck to your initial buy, you would have recovered. I will not stop posting because of myopic person of your nature. As I said earlier deadline for me is August 14 to see the imminent reversal scenario I'm waiting for.

And for those quickly jumping on wagon of who is right and wrong, play God role as you are so invincible. I did admit my bias is wrong but my positions have a very strong chance of breaking even. Judge me only if you have 100% call rate or success rate.

Peace.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #538,896
  • Jul 28, 2020 4:20pm Jul 28, 2020 4:20pm
2950 done..
next 3030
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #538,897
  • Jul 28, 2020 4:24pm Jul 28, 2020 4:24pm
Quoting epzero
{quote} the market is never coming back down so the earlier you accept this fact the better for you and i've made 3 times my account size the day i stopped following you and your sell mentally, you have been shorting since 1.25 ish and market is at 1.29 ish that's over 400pips against you and it's 3 days left to end the month so face reality
i think already over yesterday..
mate..
do you wear a pampers still???
focus at your trading..
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #538,898
  • Jul 28, 2020 4:24pm Jul 28, 2020 4:24pm
Well, it looks like we are in a good area to try some sell counter trend retr (Daily basis)
So, waiting for a good signal on H1
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  • #538,899
  • Jul 28, 2020 4:27pm Jul 28, 2020 4:27pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I did try to ignore you as much as I can but realized you will never grow up just as you said price will never go down. Keep buying to the moon and reach for the Stars. I remember you once said you were on a buy EURJPY initially for some weeks and it felt like it will never go up to recover then you closed all transactions and took a sell, then 2 days after you took a sell price started flying up to even as much as 600 pips against you, which if you had stuck to your initial buy, you would have recovered. I will not stop posting because...
mate..
just press 'ignore' buttom..
settle..
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #538,900
  • Jul 28, 2020 4:28pm Jul 28, 2020 4:28pm
Quoting akim0895
{quote} mate.. just press 'ignore' buttom.. settle..
Perfect idea.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
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