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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #538,261
  • Jul 25, 2020 6:51am Jul 25, 2020 6:51am
Quoting Nala66
For those holding onto short positions you should be aware this is a classic ABCD on the 1 hour chart with a further 100 pips to go. Price has already closed passed A. So your call on the action you take. {image}
when dxy so weak, ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ pattern could work.

the only question is how long it will take, we will see healthy retrace, how deep.. fast one?
i read a lot “why investors will keep selling dollar” lat days.. when they start to egging with it im worry.

i posted that is very good to look for short around 2800 with sl above 2813.
harmonic pattern, double top on daily with nice m potential.

automatic sl is the key, not manual/emotional.
market is not ranging and nothing is safe
  • #538,262
  • Jul 25, 2020 7:08am Jul 25, 2020 7:08am
My long term forecasts for Cable
1.5 and 1.65

I know a major investment bank's forecast are 1.46 for the end 2021
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.png Size: 176 KB
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #538,263
  • Jul 25, 2020 7:21am Jul 25, 2020 7:21am
Just talk bearish if there's false break at the top already #imho
not euphoria follower
  • #538,264
  • Edited 8:21am Jul 25, 2020 7:44am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting Headland
... e. circa 2940-50 weekly asc channel top on next week's weekly candle...
W/E Analysis cont...

The asc weekly channel top mentioned in post above is shown on wkly chart below and you can see one touch at that 2813 sw hi earlier in June.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture3.JPG Size: 83 KB
Trader with an Edge.
  • #538,265
  • Jul 25, 2020 8:58am Jul 25, 2020 8:58am
Quoting ngiler
{quote} can i know hwoow to calculate and get 1.289 number? i keep calculating and get 1.2845 number. but i know it will reach there
I didn't calculate it exactly to the pip but it is supposed to be the distance of A to B being the same as the distance C to D, C being a 50% retrace of AB.

The theory is that buyers at B are winning and the sellers at A are also winning. As the sentiment weakens for the sellers it strengthens the bulls until the whole thing changes hands hence the equal swing.
  • #538,266
  • Jul 25, 2020 9:28am Jul 25, 2020 9:28am
Short side increasing position
Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #538,267
  • Jul 25, 2020 9:30am Jul 25, 2020 9:30am
Tomorrow should be an easy short from 2800 into London, possibly NY...beyond that I have no view. Short, cash in and then just watch and evaluate.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #538,268
  • Jul 25, 2020 9:40am Jul 25, 2020 9:40am
All eyes on FOMC
Patience.....
  • #538,269
  • Jul 25, 2020 10:23am Jul 25, 2020 10:23am
Quoting kuroro001
Short side increasing position {image}
This is what I was waiting for..
Le$$ I$ More
  • #538,270
  • Jul 25, 2020 10:48am Jul 25, 2020 10:48am
Quoting Roszey
{quote} This is what I was waiting for..
Do you expect the price to go up before drop? If so, what level would it go to?
WT
  • #538,271
  • Jul 25, 2020 11:18am Jul 25, 2020 11:18am
Quoting Bartosz77
{quote} Do you expect the price to go up before drop? If so, what level would it go to?
Hey Bartosz,

I can say without a shadow of doubt that nobody knows where price will go. Calling a direction is pure speculation. Look at price action and trade accordingly, when the markets open. It is expectations that make traders lose but not such a bad thing if you do trade in line with your trade management plan.

Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #538,272
  • Jul 25, 2020 11:20am Jul 25, 2020 11:20am
Quoting Roszey
{quote} This is what I was waiting for..
I’m watching this post everyday a few times. I like your trading style, you are watching and waiting for it, and you don’t overtrade like me - i’m trading for 4 months only and i would be grateful if you could say what do you think about next week or something.
Also i can see that there are a lot of good traders like navk Kuoro, gatenio or Georg, i like when you show what do you think about trends or something. Keep doing well. Thanks for your help to grow Sorry for my english.🖐
  • #538,273
  • Jul 25, 2020 11:44am Jul 25, 2020 11:44am
Quoting seincard
{quote} Oh man , me too
hello. Don’t be frustrated, this is my view from 27.06.
how much i earned? 0. How much i lost? A lot. Just one drop to 1.22500 kicked me out, and i were bearish all the time and?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E4D9367B-C00A-4563-9A8C-DBEC92E53C25.png Size: 477 KB
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  • #538,274
  • Jul 25, 2020 12:31pm Jul 25, 2020 12:31pm
Quoting Bartosz77
{quote} Do you expect the price to go up before drop? If so, what level would it go to?
I will post my analysis for the week by tomorrow.
Le$$ I$ More
  • #538,275
  • Jul 25, 2020 12:49pm Jul 25, 2020 12:49pm
the sellers have already appeared, they represent a fairly serious quantity.
there is a good chance the short will be the right direction.

h4
  • #538,276
  • Jul 25, 2020 1:26pm Jul 25, 2020 1:26pm
Quoting SFundamental
My long term forecasts for Cable 1.5 and 1.65 I know a major investment bank's forecast are 1.46 for the end 2021 {image}
Agree, lines up with my own analysis

It's a 4 step process.
1.
2. Fed printing response
3. Equities
4. USD

Same thing happened the last time the Feds crisis cheque book opened.

Inserted Video
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #538,277
  • Jul 25, 2020 1:49pm Jul 25, 2020 1:49pm
Sooooo simple......perhaps, too simple.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #538,278
  • Edited 6:02pm Jul 25, 2020 3:04pm | Edited 6:02pm
W/e analysis cont...

Further stats:

a. Based on the last 250 trading days, (ie approx 1 calendar year,) the chance of seeing the current 30 day adr of 111 pips or more on Monday is 46% and the chances of see-ing 90% + of it [ie a 99pip range or greater,] is 56%
b. Based on quartile analysis of the last 13 weeks' pip ranges the most likely max hi of this coming week is 1.3137 and the most likely max lo is 1.2453, ie the most likely pip range is 342 pips. This said the 'summer' weekly ranges have been contracting, ie the last 5 weekly pip ranges leading up to this week just closed have been 228,278,219,187, and 285. So using just the last 5 weeks as more 'representative' of a typical summer range and applying the same analysis, the most likely weekly range is 259 pips which makes the most likely max lo 1.2536, and the most likely max hi 1.3054. These summer ranges of the last 5 weeks are perhaps more instructive/informative, ? (or not!)

(I shouldn't have to but in light of recent events- a disclaimer - if you break both your legs climbing that tree - don't come running to me!)

Peace.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #538,279
  • Jul 25, 2020 6:34pm Jul 25, 2020 6:34pm
I think the Bulls got this

1.25 is the ZONE

or at least I hope so
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly.png Size: 33 KB
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #538,280
  • Jul 25, 2020 8:16pm Jul 25, 2020 8:16pm
Quoting trumps
I think the Bulls got this 1.25 is the ZONE or at least I hope so {image}
That's what I was thinking as well. Plus round number reaction.
"Anger clouds the mind. Turned inward, it is an unconquerable enemy."
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