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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #536,401
  • Jul 17, 2020 5:31pm Jul 17, 2020 5:31pm
.
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #536,402
  • Jul 17, 2020 5:49pm Jul 17, 2020 5:49pm
Quoting trumps
. {image}
not sure what you're referring to mate...you labelled 'failing' and 'unconvincing'...does that mean you're expecting a rise or fall?
"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #536,403
  • Jul 17, 2020 5:54pm Jul 17, 2020 5:54pm
Quoting kaoscoded
{quote} not sure what you're referring to mate...you labelled 'failing' and 'unconvincing'...does that mean you're expecting a rise or fall?
A fall next week.
Tuesday's reversal hint is not producing the power I would normally expect from such a candle,(failing) but not too surprising as it's not deep enough on price (we are still consolidating).
Bearing this in mind, and given highlighted bearish daily tops, and weekly hanging man off the swing high, and weekly triangle, today's bullish candle looks (unconvincing), so I am bearish next week.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #536,404
  • Jul 17, 2020 6:01pm Jul 17, 2020 6:01pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} A fall next week. Tuesday's reversal hint is not producing the power I would normally expect from such a candle,(failing) but not too surprising as it's not deep enough on price (we are still consolidating). Bearing this in mind, and given highlighted bearish daily tops, and weekly hanging man off the swing high, and weekly triangle, today's bullish candle looks (unconvincing), so I am bearish next week.
gotcha...well personally i think you're right but after the blood bath on thursday from the MM's, perhaps we should all realize it's never nor will it ever be that simple bro...having said that, i'm bearish on gu and gj...i may be wrong and it wouldn't be the first time...but there are more signs pointing down then just candlesticks...my two cents
"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #536,405
  • Jul 17, 2020 6:11pm Jul 17, 2020 6:11pm
Quoting kaoscoded
{quote} gotcha...well personally i think you're right but after the blood bath on thursday from the MM's, perhaps we should all realize it's never nor will it ever be that simple bro...having said that, i'm bearish on gu and gj...i may be wrong and it wouldn't be the first time...but there are more signs pointing down then just candlesticks...my two cents
Yes, more than candles pointing down.
Weekly and monthly reacting to established resistance (and support) which I have posted about before.
Highs are getting lower.
Let's see, all the best
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #536,406
  • Jul 17, 2020 6:21pm Jul 17, 2020 6:21pm
Quoting kaoscoded
{quote} gotcha...well personally i think you're right but after the blood bath on thursday from the MM's, perhaps we should all realize it's never nor will it ever be that simple bro...having said that, i'm bearish on gu and gj...i may be wrong and it wouldn't be the first time...but there are more signs pointing down then just candlesticks...my two cents
My monthly and weekly range levels etc look like this.
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #536,407
  • Jul 17, 2020 6:34pm Jul 17, 2020 6:34pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} My monthly and weekly range levels etc look like this. {image} {image}
looks good...now go get some rest buddy...enjoy your weekend
"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #536,408
  • Jul 17, 2020 6:37pm Jul 17, 2020 6:37pm
Quoting kaoscoded
{quote} looks good...now go get some rest buddy...enjoy your weekend
Cheers, thanks for that, you too.
I just woke up
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #536,409
  • Jul 17, 2020 10:23pm Jul 17, 2020 10:23pm
Two weeks left for July to end. What is it gonna be UP or DOWN? Only time will tell!!!!
Keep it Real
Le$$ I$ More
  • #536,410
  • Jul 18, 2020 1:22am Jul 18, 2020 1:22am
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yes yes yes
  • #536,411
  • Jul 18, 2020 2:35am Jul 18, 2020 2:35am
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morning . Now is that false or is it confirm to the high .. but it’s come back in to much I would say . See what Monday brings
  • #536,412
  • Jul 18, 2020 2:39am Jul 18, 2020 2:39am
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4 hour ?? If it’s fake 2720 if it’s not 2400 and that pin bar good high value short order on the end 10 pips 50 lots .
  • #536,413
  • Jul 18, 2020 2:41am Jul 18, 2020 2:41am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Yes, the close for today will give a clue for Monday.
I do not do Monthly analysis. I mostly want daily cash in pocket.

But just my thought.

The high is already in place for the month. or 2723 R1
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Intraday only.
  • #536,414
  • Jul 18, 2020 2:47am Jul 18, 2020 2:47am
THIS is weekly pivot chart.

The week opened high and closed low.

Next week, look to short.

Best strategy.
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Intraday only.
  • #536,415
  • Jul 18, 2020 2:49am Jul 18, 2020 2:49am
Quoting navk
THIS is weekly pivot chart. The week opened high and closed low. Next week, look to short. Best strategy. {image}
I have a feeling that will go up first before down. IMO.
Lets see step by step
  • #536,416
  • Jul 18, 2020 2:54am Jul 18, 2020 2:54am
Quoting Gilaforex13
{quote} I have a feeling that will go up first before down. IMO. Lets see step by step
yeah. that is usual .

If the week wants to close bearish, bull first.

If the week wants to close bullish, then price will go down first.
Intraday only.
  • #536,417
  • Jul 18, 2020 2:57am Jul 18, 2020 2:57am
Quoting navk
{quote} I do not do Monthly analysis. I mostly want daily cash in pocket. But just my thought. The high is already in place for the month. or 2723 R1 {image}
i agree .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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.
predictable pivot lines for Monday
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yes yes yes
  • #536,418
  • Jul 18, 2020 4:01am Jul 18, 2020 4:01am
Quoting navk
THIS is weekly pivot chart. The week opened high and closed low. Next week, look to short. Best strategy. {image}
There are numerous reasons to have a bearish bias on GBPUSD

EURUSD GIVING A HELPING HAND TO GBPUSD

EURUSD now trades 150 pips away from the highest price since October 2018 and has been buying for 4 consecutive weeks without significant retracement. This surge is holding GBP back from falling against the USD. A reversal is imminent on EURUSD and that will make GBPUSD extremely vulnerable for a fall to 1.22/1.21 area before any respite.

OPEN TO HIGH REVERSAL ON GBPUSD

Since 2011 to 2019 JULYS, the most open to high distance is 418 pips which happened in 2011 and still managed an open to low of 275 pips before the upward surge.

The average opening price to high price distance of JULYS from 2011 to 2019 is 260 pips, which occured 2013, 2016, 2017 and currently 2020 which has 270 pips open to high distance so far (1.2399 - 1.2669)

Since this current July has made open to high distance of 270 pips which is the average open to high distance since 2011, the price has found difficulty in breaking the 1.2669 level after 4 unsuccessful attempts.

Also noteworthy that since 2011 Julys to 2019, there was not a single July with failure to attain open to low distance of 200 pips. This July so far only has open to low distance of 41 pips (1.2399 - 1.2358) which means a possible price break down cannot be ruled out to 1.22 level.

INCOMPLETE RANGE SO FAR THIS JULY

The range so far this July is 311 pips (1.2358 - 1.2669) which is yet to match up with the lowest JULY ranges since 2011 till 2019 which recorded 334 pips July range in 2014. It is also noteworthy that 7 years of the last 9 years July have produced 400+ pips range.

Going by previous 9 years July it can be relatively deduced that 400+ pips look likely this July as well. Should 1.2669 still fail to break, that is certain invitation of 1.22 level to eke out the 400+ pips range this July 2020... Reverse the case that should 1.2669 level break then 1.2770 area will complete the 400+ pips for July and reversal from there will also be seen as imminent

In summary, from all the above statistics I maintain a bearish bias on GBPUSD for a possible test of 1.22 level within the remaining 2 weeks of July 2020.

As always, this write up is a research work for ideas sharing and not an obligation for anyone to follow. Apply discretion, maintain good risk management plan and always anticipate ahead so you will not be trapped buying at a high price or selling at a low price.

I hope this is useful.

Cheers.

Georginson.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #536,419
  • Jul 18, 2020 4:10am Jul 18, 2020 4:10am
Enjoy the weekend friends ...

Inserted Video
not euphoria follower
  • #536,420
  • Jul 18, 2020 4:17am Jul 18, 2020 4:17am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} There are numerous reasons to have a bearish bias on GBPUSD EURUSD GIVING A HELPING HAND TO GBPUSD EURUSD now trades 150 pips away from the highest price since October 2018 and has been buying for 4 consecutive weeks without significant retracement. This surge is holding GBP back from falling against the USD. A reversal is imminent on EURUSD and that will make GBPUSD extremely vulnerable for a fall to 1.22/1.21 area before any respite. OPEN TO HIGH REVERSAL ON GBPUSD Since 2011 to 2019 JULYS, the most open to high distance is 418 pips which...
This is my first post on the forum but i have been following your analysis for some weeks now and i must admit the range analysis based trading has really helped a lot.
Keep up the good work mate..
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