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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #534,941
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:36am Jul 12, 2020 6:36am
Quoting navk
{quote} I take note of your points. This is how we have been taught about trading. Our success is consistent in following those points? Our accounts growing faster ? Or make 3 % one day and loose 3 % next day. What is the use ? The moto I want to discuss is take a confirmed entry, using your more accurate method, look for 20 pips only, then quit trading for the day.
There is no such thing as the underlined above...... ie there is no such thing as a 100% guaranteed winning trade. ...and I refer you to my post again - it's is principally the psychology that will screw it up over any sample size of trades at that leverage. Longevity and consistent returns in this industry is the corollary of managing risk consistent with your edge's metrics because this gives you the best chance of developing the necessary psychological framework to execute the edge to a profitable outcome over a long period, without it ever destabilising you so that your execution of it is impaired, and, more often than not - fatally.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #534,942
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:37am Jul 12, 2020 6:37am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} 20r = 20% ? from 1000 dollar, you make 20% per week you have 39billions within a year? That's something nice But looking at this thread, everytime i read it, i see people making 10/15% a day/Week...they should be millionnaire I'm happy with 1/2% honestly, and struggling sometimes, so hearing 10% a day makes me laugh
R is risk, so in this case it's 2% of total account = £20 for the first trade, that amount increases each week after +20r in this example but it's still 2%, hence why the final figure is massive, compounded, you need to put into account commission (if you have it) no withdrawals etc etc and not losing less than 20%+ a week.

exactly mate just said above it would be that easy we'd all be rich

market can only go up or down from where you buy, you literally have 50% chance every trade

and yet it still fucks many on the daily

take it easy
  • #534,943
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:37am Jul 12, 2020 6:37am
this before and after is fun, starting to feel nothing can touch my analysis ,getting really overconfident
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #534,944
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:38am Jul 12, 2020 6:38am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I think the best amount to learn is with $1-3 on a real account. Tens or even hundreds accounts like that will teach more than anything else. Because that tight area will teach the best entries. Nothing forces you concentrate more on the perfect entry than knowing 5-20 pips will kill your account.
Correct. I used 50 USD thought, but still. Trading 0.1lot - 0.35lot. That's kinda big.. Can kill the account like nothing. Can check, just for the fun of it.

I really like the idea of going from 50 USD to 100 000 USD in months/years. I still develop the system to fix things I do badly, so I have only few entries but I kinda miss most of them since I cannot sit 24/7 on PC.

Last time I got 7 pips and price went for 42 I believe. That could be 130 USD win with 0.35lots. Was my bad. I was going out so I closed it for purpose. :/

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Pho...father/6421708

SF
  • #534,945
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:38am Jul 12, 2020 6:38am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I am trying to tune down on trades slowly...because my problem was overtrading, too. Then I made lets say 200-300 pips by scalping, just to end up in a 300 pip drawdown...and was looking at the chart and thinking...jeez, I could have just waited all week for this one trade and made more on it than with all scalping combined...and stress free. So now more and more I am trying to resist all possible setups, to have all the margin free for when I see something irresistible.
This is exactly I wanted to put it.

Take a confirmed entry at tokyo open, Frakfurt open, London open with confidence, look for 20 pips only and close the PC for the day. Avoid over trading.

Just following the PA is stupid thing IMO. as it reverses at some.

Just look at what happened.

It happened to me last friday when the price reacted at pivot.

I made those money at london open and then made mistake when it reversed at pivot and gave it all.

But then finally I had to make it up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Intraday only.
  • #534,946
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:44am Jul 12, 2020 6:44am
Quoting Headland
{quote} There is no such thing as the underlined above...... ie there is no such thing as a 100% guaranteed winning trade. ...and I refer you to my post again - it's is principally the psychology that will screw it up over any sample size of trades at that leverage. Longevity and consistent returns in this industry is the corollary of managing risk consistent with your edge's metrics because this gives you the best chance of developing the necessary psychological framework to execute the edge to a profitable outcome over a long period, without it...
I do not deny this theory.

My question is are we consistent?

If consistent, one can follow theory,
Intraday only.
  • #534,947
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:47am Jul 12, 2020 6:47am
Quoting joesherwood
{quote} R is risk, so in this case it's 2% of total account = £20 for the first trade, that amount increases each week after +20r in this example but it's still 2%, hence why the final figure is massive, compounded, you need to put into account commission (if you have it) no withdrawals etc etc and not losing less than 20%+ a week. exactly mate just said above it would be that easy we'd all be rich market can only go up or down from where you buy, you literally have 50% chance every trade and yet it still fucks many on the daily take it easy
May be you are talking of compounding lot size based on increased capital.

In my post, I did not say that.

1 lot, 20 pips, 200 $ a day. Discipline, no over trading.
Intraday only.
  • #534,948
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:49am Jul 12, 2020 6:49am
Quoting Headland
{quote} There is no such thing as the underlined above...... ie there is no such thing as a 100% guaranteed winning trade. ...and I refer you to my post again - it's is principally the psychology that will screw it up over any sample size of trades at that leverage. Longevity and consistent returns in this industry is the corollary of managing risk consistent with your edge's metrics because this gives you the best chance of developing the necessary psychological framework to execute the edge to a profitable outcome over a long period, without it...
I see many times confirmed entries in the day.

Just look at the pic I posted.

It is over trading that kiils ...
Intraday only.
  • #534,949
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:49am Jul 12, 2020 6:49am
Quoting navk
{quote} I do not deny this theory. My question is are we consistent? If consistent, one can follow theory,
i havent found anyone consistent.

i prefer onlineaddict style. wait for right moment to enter and earn 200-300pips. the problem is my hand are itchy...
row row row your boat
  • #534,950
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:51am Jul 12, 2020 6:51am
Quoting navk
{quote} This is exactly I wanted to put it. Take a confirmed entry at tokyo open, Frakfurt open, London open with confidence, look for 20 pips only and close the PC for the day. Avoid over trading. Just following the PA is stupid thing IMO. as it reverses at some. Just look at what happened. It happened to me last friday when the price reacted at pivot. I made those money at london open and then made mistake when it reversed at pivot and gave it all. But then finally I had to make it up. {image}

...the scenario you have indicated (I'm not saying this is your situation) is one of being underfunded re the $ amounts being made at a sensible leverage consistent with and optimised to the egde, and being tired of not making any real $ gain progress (2 steps forward, one step back type of thing.) The answer to this that you are suggesting is to take bigger risks/fewer entries or in fact find one 'confirmed' entry and close op for the day, but for the reasons I have outlined in my posts above, this is for most almost without exception not the answer but will actually make the situation worse. The basis of your argument hangs on a so called 'confirmed entry,' but in reality there is no such thing.
-----------------------------------

See you at London open.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #534,951
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:52am Jul 12, 2020 6:52am
Quoting ngiler
{quote} i havent found anyone consistent. i prefer onlineaddict style. wait for right moment to enter and earn 200-300pips. the problem is my hand are itchy...
Online addict version is 200 pips, but my version is 20 pips.

All one and the same.

The only difference, if you look for 200 pips, you should be prepared for 200 pips drawdown. Or may be less.

If it is 20 pips target, 20 pips draw down
Intraday only.
  • #534,952
  • Jul 12, 2020 6:57am Jul 12, 2020 6:57am
Quoting Headland
{quote} this is for most almost without exception not the answer but will actually make the situation worse. The basis of your argument hangs on a so called 'confirmed entry,' but in reality there is no such thing. ----------------------------------- See you at London open.
Yeah,

Take confirmed entry, ( I see regularly in my chart )

Be disciplined not to take a trade until such time

Look for 20 pips

Increase lot size.

Book 200 $

Quit trading for the day.

Edit :

Once you make fast 10k or 100k, turn to conventional method of trading.
Intraday only.
  • #534,953
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:02am Jul 12, 2020 7:02am
You can't keep up a % every day forever because the size would get you in the end, the size element is a personal thing based on risk tolerance.
Demo is good but it doesn't teach you any emotion.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #534,954
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:04am Jul 12, 2020 7:04am
Quoting Bones
You can't keep up a % every day forever because the size would get you in the end, the size element is a personal thing on risk tolerance. Demo is good but it doesn't teach you any emotion. {image}
Yes, ir does not teach emotion.

Technical can be tested with proper entry, stop, TP etc.
Intraday only.
  • #534,955
  • Edited 7:32am Jul 12, 2020 7:14am | Edited 7:32am
With consistent 15% return on capital monthly, at compound growth, 450% return on balance is possible. There is no need to force the trades when the set up isn't crystal clear.

There are defensive methods that can be applied which will give average of 15% profit monthly.

The larger the account size the lesser the profit target should be which will also reduce risk exposure to extreme minimum.

10% return monthly on portfolio size of $100,000 = $10,000

15% return monthly on portfolio size of $2,000 =$300.

The higher the portfolio size, the more attractive less % return becomes which also results to lesser trade entries and lesser risk exposure.

Not everyone can afford $100,000 portfolio but even with $2,000 portfolio with average target of 15% monthly will still become $11,000 in a year.

The key is find a consistent system of trading. The lesser the trades you place, the better the result and less risk exposure if the entries can almost be timed to perfection.

I belong to school of thought of 5-15 % return on capital monthly, subject to a big account size from $50,000 and above, if with lesser capital then diligently grow the small capital into big one, the more the account grows, the lesser the profit % I will aim for to consolidate the growth and not ruin all my long term effort with unnecessary pressure or bigger lot sizes.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #534,956
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:17am Jul 12, 2020 7:17am
Quoting Georginson
The key is find a consistent system of trading. The lesser the trades you place, the better the result and less risk exposure if the entries can almost be timed to perfection.
My point is this.

Rest one can do based on risk appetite.
Intraday only.
  • #534,957
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:21am Jul 12, 2020 7:21am
Quoting navk
{quote} May be you are talking of compounding lot size based on increased capital. In my post, I did not say that. 1 lot, 20 pips, 200 $ a day. Discipline, no over trading.
navk I wasn't talking about your post haha
I was replying to someone who quoted my 1000 one

take it easy
Joe
  • #534,958
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:23am Jul 12, 2020 7:23am
Quoting Georginson
With consistent 15% return on capital monthly, at compound growth, 450% return on balance is possible. There is no need to force the trades when the set up isn't crystal clear. There are defensive methods that can be applied which will give average of 15% profit monthly. The larger the account size the lesser the profit target should be which will also reduce risk exposure to extreme minimum. 10% return monthly on portfolio size of $100,000 = $10,000 15% return monthly on portfolio size of $2,000 =$300. The higher the portfolio size, the more attractive...
That's how you spot small and big accounts here
Traders talking about 10% a day are the small one

I doubt any good traders would make 10% a day on a large account, risking more or less the same
Or Georges Soros, Renaissance Fund, and others are losing some gold nugget traders
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #534,959
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:26am Jul 12, 2020 7:26am
Quoting navk
{quote} Online addict version is 200 pips, but my version is 20 pips. All one and the same. The only difference, if you look for 200 pips, you should be prepared for 200 pips drawdown. Or may be less. If it is 20 pips target, 20 pips draw down
for me tp 200pips, sl 50pips max
row row row your boat
  • #534,960
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:30am Jul 12, 2020 7:30am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} That's how you spot small and big accounts here Traders talking about 10% a day are the small one I doubt any good traders would make 10% a day on a large account, risking more or less the same Or Georges Soros, Renaissance Fund, and others are losing some gold nugget traders
Someone with large account size aiming for 10% daily return is recipe for disaster. While one cannot also dissuade traders with account sizes of $1000 not to want to aim for 10% daily which is the exact thing market needs to eat up everything they have gathered with 3-5 consecutive losses.

I prefer traders with little or no experience to start on smaller account sizes and also lower their profit expectations. Once a consistent trading strategy has been discovered, they can start adding more to the capital and still maintain similar lot sizes.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
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