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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #532,461
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:32pm Jul 1, 2020 2:32pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} trumps, if you are not position trader (long run) is useless for you...better depend on your setup TF...that's what I think.
Well yes, I agree.
Problem is, I am a position/swing trader

Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #532,462
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:34pm Jul 1, 2020 2:34pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} It is, COT report showing increase of the long side from the Smart money, increase of the retail short side. When you see that, you just look for buys, that's where the technicals come into play So its useful to me, maybe not for you, its life
Yep, it's ok, seems like buying the Pound was a good idea after all.

Thanks for the info and your persistence

I just struggle to trade anything other than my own tech analysis

Live and learn
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #532,463
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:42pm Jul 1, 2020 2:42pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} Yep, it's ok, seems like buying the Pound was a good idea after all. Thanks for the info and your persistence I just struggle to trade anything other than my own tech analysis Live and learn
COT report, if well read...is giving you an edge
But technicals are highly needed too

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.PNG Size: 37 KB


Good luck in your trading mate
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #532,464
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:43pm Jul 1, 2020 2:43pm
I remember looking at this fib area on our way down the other week, and thinking it needed a retest
Seems the market may finally be catching onto the idea
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 29 KB
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #532,465
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:44pm Jul 1, 2020 2:44pm
Quoting epzero
{quote} can we exchange contact pls i need your advice
Check your inbox...
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #532,466
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:47pm Jul 1, 2020 2:47pm
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  • #532,467
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:47pm Jul 1, 2020 2:47pm
where is the short my friends ?
been able to save half from my last deposit , tomorrow it's a new day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #532,468
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:50pm Jul 1, 2020 2:50pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} COT report, if well read...is giving you an edge But technicals are highly needed too {image} Good luck in your trading mate
Thanks Kuroro, you too and thanks for the info.

So those are retail longs and shorts on those graphs?
I have been watching those graph posts of yours these past weeks, and they have been quite predictive
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #532,469
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:51pm Jul 1, 2020 2:51pm
Not very active for me today, very busy with some stuff. However two shorts which hit TP. +50. I think this bull run could carry on.. remember NFP tomorrow and Usd bank holiday Friday

stay safe all

Joe
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  • #532,470
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:58pm Jul 1, 2020 2:58pm
EG back in the strong support zone 9000-9020, so GU might drop(correction) quicker during asia than EU.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #532,471
  • Jul 1, 2020 2:59pm Jul 1, 2020 2:59pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} COT report, if well read...is giving you an edge But technicals are highly needed too {image} Good luck in your trading mate
commitment of trader. eventually they are right.
  • #532,472
  • Jul 1, 2020 3:05pm Jul 1, 2020 3:05pm
swing shorts could be had up there
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 32 KB
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #532,473
  • Jul 1, 2020 3:17pm Jul 1, 2020 3:17pm
I did state earlier that as far as 1.2250 level holds, 1.2470 is imminent and possibility of 1.2520/1.2590 cannot be ruled out before some correction. This week range so far is 240 pips, which means minimum weekly range is already completed...

Average/probable weekly range Being 340 pips... 1.2250 (weekly low) + 340 pips = 1.2590
Most repeated weekly range Being 270 pips... 1.2250 (weekly low) + 270 pips = 1.2520

Which means
weekly possible high to be 1.2520/1.2590
Weekly current low is 1.2250

In summary 70% risk is already completed at 1.2490, which means price is likely Going to reverse anywhere from 1.2500/1.2590 area... Hence selling is appropriate from 1.2500/1.2590 area for this week...
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #532,474
  • Jul 1, 2020 3:33pm Jul 1, 2020 3:33pm
From the bottom we went 38% 50% .. and straight to 76% where we are now so let’s think back to 61.8%which is as we know my old target 2425 . If so possible buy to 161% ext 2724
  • #532,475
  • Jul 1, 2020 3:33pm Jul 1, 2020 3:33pm
Quoting Georginson
I did state earlier that as far as 1.2250 level holds, 1.2470 is imminent and possibility of 1.2520/1.2590 cannot be ruled out before some correction. This week range so far is 240 pips, which means minimum weekly range is already completed... Average/probable weekly range Being 340 pips... 1.2250 (weekly low) + 340 pips = 1.2590 Most repeated weekly range Being 270 pips... 1.2250 (weekly low) + 270 pips = 1.2520 Which means weekly possible high to be 1.2520/1.2590 Weekly current low is 1.2250 In summary 70% risk is already completed at 1.2490,...
Really appreciate the work you put into this and as a newbie I am learning alot.

I just have a couple of questions with regards to the above analysis. As it's the first week of July I was wondering how you have worked out the average/probable range being 340 pips and same with most repeated weekly range of 270 pips?
  • #532,476
  • Jul 1, 2020 3:35pm Jul 1, 2020 3:35pm
Now for July... (Price at 1.2475 as at time of typing)
The expected range for July is between 420 - 600 pips...
Now expect projected 100 - 210 pips above the opening price in July...
July 2020 opening price being 1.2399 + 100/210 pips = 1.2499/1.2609

now expect projected 300 - 450 pips below the opening price in July...
July 2020 opening price being 1.2399 - 300/450 pips = 1.2099. 1.1959

IN SUMMARY... July 2020 Possible High = 1.2499/1.2609
July 2020 possible Low = 1.2099/1.1949

Verdict... First Swing sell from 1.2500... Target 1.2000
Second Swing sell from 1.2609... Target 1.2150

NOTE: Sell Most probable risk for July 2020 is 1.2720... Do not stake more than 4% at each potential selling zones...

THIS IS A SWING APPROACH and not Scalp... No one is obligated to follow this...

I hope this is useful.

Cheers.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #532,477
  • Jul 1, 2020 3:41pm Jul 1, 2020 3:41pm
Quoting elbert3
From the bottom we went 38% 50% .. and straight to 76% where we are now so let’s think back to 61.8%which is as we know my old target 2425 . If so possible buy to 161% ext 2724
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I could be wrong I I will change my mind at a drop of a hat. Please play your own trade
  • #532,478
  • Jul 1, 2020 3:45pm Jul 1, 2020 3:45pm
Hello Forex.z1.... At your request... Here you have it below.

In the last 13 weeks the weekly ranges of GBPUSD has been 220-400 pips. Below are the workings:

29/03/2020 High 1.2475 - 1.2204 Low = Range 271 pips (Close 1.2269) 65 pips recovery from low
05/04/2020 High 1.2486 - 1.2164 Low = Range 322 pips (Close 1.2433) 53 pips recovery from Low
12/04/2020 High 1.2647 - 1.2406 Low = Range 241 pips (Close 1.2505) 142 pips recovery from high
19/04/2020 High 1.2499 - 1.2247 Low = Range 252 pips (Close 1.2365) 118 pips recovery from low
26/04/2020 High 1.2642 - 1.2359 Low = Range 283 pips (Close 1.2492) 150 pips recovery from High
03/05/2020 High 1.2486 - 1.2265 Low = Range 221 pips (Close 1.2407) 142 pips recovery from Low
10/05/2020 High 1.2437 - 1.2100 Low = Range 337 pips (Close 1.2102) 2 pips recovery from Low
17/05/2020 High 1.2296 - 1.2073 Low = Range 223 pips (Close 1.2166) 130 pips recovery from High
24/05/2020 High 1.2393 - 1.2163 Low = Range 230 pips (Close 1.2358) 43 pips recovery from High
31/05/2020 High 1.2730 - 1.2324 Low = Range 406 pips (Close 1.2667) 63 pips recovery from High
07/06/2020 High 1.2812 - 1.2473 Low = Range 339 pips (Close 1.2548) 75 pips recovery from Low
14/06/2020 High 1.2687 - 1.2343 Low = Range 344 pips (Close 1.2348) 5 pips recovery from Low
21/06/2020 High 1.2541 - 1.2314 Low = Range 227 pips (Close 1.2336) 22 pips recovery from Low

From the above data, the following can be deduced
* maximum weekly range in the last 13 weeks is 406 pips
* Average weekly range in the last 13 weeks is 270 pips
* Minimum weekly range in the last 13 weeks is 221 pips

The most repeated ranges are between 221 - 280 which happened 8 weeks out of 13 weeks
The second most repeated ranges are between 320 - 344 which happened 4 weeks out of 13 weeks
The least repeated range is 406 being maximum range which happened just once.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #532,479
  • Jul 1, 2020 3:46pm Jul 1, 2020 3:46pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} COT report, if well read...is giving you an edge But technicals are highly needed too {image} Good luck in your trading mate
I have been trying to do something similar to this - do you have a guide or a link on how to port COT and MT4 data into Excel? Thanks.
  • #532,480
  • Jul 1, 2020 3:55pm Jul 1, 2020 3:55pm
Quoting Georginson
Hello Forex.z1.... At your request... Here you have it below. In the last 13 weeks the weekly ranges of GBPUSD has been 220-400 pips. Below are the workings: 29/03/2020 High 1.2475 - 1.2204 Low = Range 271 pips (Close 1.2269) 65 pips recovery from low 05/04/2020 High 1.2486 - 1.2164 Low = Range 322 pips (Close 1.2433) 53 pips recovery from Low 12/04/2020 High 1.2647 - 1.2406 Low = Range 241 pips (Close 1.2505) 142 pips recovery from high 19/04/2020 High 1.2499 - 1.2247 Low = Range 252 pips (Close 1.2365) 118 pips recovery from low 26/04/2020 High...
Much appreciated, thank you
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