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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #531,521
  • Jun 27, 2020 5:09am Jun 27, 2020 5:09am
Quoting Headland
More excellent and clear analysis from Georginson, and the outline of a very sound approach to the market. Just speculation here - I wonder whether the E-F impulse wave of the 4hr down move from 2813 will see a deeper retrace/pullback than what has occurred from the 2314 lo so far,? because; a. The weekly candle is an inverted pinbar type that suggests upside is probable. b. The character of this move has been a mon/tues retrace/pullback before the move resumes. c. E-F as an impulse wave is shorter than C-D in classic elliot wave. ------------------------------------------------------------...
This is an introductory part of these ranges... And they have been unbelievably consistent from 2011 till date (10 years).

More explanation will come on weekly, monthly to as far as yearly ranges....

Price behaviour will also be introduced which gives further clarity to these ranges application. In fact the combination of the two will expose future prices with high degree of accuracy except for occasional natural disaster like pandemic or brexit referendum which affected the accuracy of these ranges and behavior in the last 10 years.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #531,522
  • Jun 27, 2020 5:10am Jun 27, 2020 5:10am
Quoting Roszey
{quote} Well done. Looks like i did a bad job to explain myself. hahaha.
You did great... Just further explanation nothing more.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #531,523
  • Jun 27, 2020 5:24am Jun 27, 2020 5:24am
I look forward to the bull trend starting.
no sign yet, so i'm waiting.
h1
  • #531,524
  • Jun 27, 2020 5:56am Jun 27, 2020 5:56am
Quoting tiborf71
I look forward to the bull trend starting. no sign yet, so i'm waiting. h1
You might wait for this bull trend for some while if sentiment doesnt improve. When this covid situation in the States doesnt improve there is no chance we're going higher. Also trade negotions with Europe again next week another good reason not too get too enthausiast for some correction monday

Not sure about much of an correction eather on monday as these headlines from covid are as bad this weekend as last week
Dont get confused btw as these covid numbers look far better out of the blue. Its a bit of a weekend issue, including Monday. Best thing is to compare numbers with same day last week

Most of you guys are very well educated from technical point of view but what I miss a bit is some good feeling for sentiment; the reasons why they're discounting something. It makes trading just that little bit easier many times. Having said that, Im glad learning from you as well its better to just stay with the chart most of the times. Really enjoying this forum!

Have a nice weekend
Life is great!!
  • #531,525
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:00am Jun 27, 2020 6:00am
Quoting despichtt
{quote} You might wait for this bull trend for some while if sentiment doesnt improve. When this covid situation in the States doesnt improve there is no chance we're going higher. Also trade negotions with Europe again next week another good reason not too get too enthausiast for some correction monday Not sure about much of an correction eather on monday as these headlines from covid are as bad this weekend as last week Dont get confused btw as these covid numbers look far better out of the blue. Its a bit of a weekend issue, including Monday....
I am patient. look forward to my system indicating bull trend.
h1
  • #531,526
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:05am Jun 27, 2020 6:05am
Quoting tiborf71
I look forward to the bull trend starting. no sign yet, so i'm waiting. h1
Naaaaaa

Ask Onlinus

His bull started at 1.32. . Never ended

When 1.45
Attached Image
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #531,527
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:05am Jun 27, 2020 6:05am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} I am patient. look forward to my system indicating bull trend. h1
Why not just enjoying the downtrend in case it continues than, or are you?

I dont really care most of the time; think I like sellings a bit more than bull rallies. They are often more powerfull )
Life is great!!
  • #531,528
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:15am Jun 27, 2020 6:15am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Hello Kuroro001, I want to take some time to explain how ranges work and the weaknesses too. Ranges are distances between high and low of a given time frame. Ranges help to reduce risk exposure and improve trade accuracy. Ranges work better when also integrated with price behaviour. Each currency pair has its way and pattern of movement over a given period, this pattern of movement if repeated on several occasions will now be seen as a behaviour. Let me start with weekly ranges In the last 13 weeks the weekly ranges of GBPUSD has been 220-400...
I came from Investing.com because of one person "Stuks Ongeluk" I do not know what user he has kept in the Forex factory. I have read 1st quote=Georginson its really amazing and clear analysis from Georginso which I have always missed in Investing.com.
  • #531,529
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:22am Jun 27, 2020 6:22am
Quoting despichtt
{quote} Why not just enjoying the downtrend in case it continues than, or are you? I dont really care most of the time; think I like sellings a bit more than bull rallies. They are often more powerfull )
I follow my rules.
my system writes the entry and exit points.

so i don't know how long it will drop.
although when the bull trend may begin, my system will indicate when to open a position.



I am very careful.
  • #531,530
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:22am Jun 27, 2020 6:22am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Hello Kuroro001, I want to take some time to explain how ranges work and the weaknesses too. Ranges are distances between high and low of a given time frame. Ranges help to reduce risk exposure and improve trade accuracy. Ranges work better when also integrated with price behaviour. Each currency pair has its way and pattern of movement over a given period, this pattern of movement if repeated on several occasions will now be seen as a behaviour. Let me start with weekly ranges In the last 13 weeks the weekly ranges of GBPUSD has been 220-400...
Very well put, thanks for all your explanation
Can't wait to hear more of it

Cheers!
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #531,531
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:25am Jun 27, 2020 6:25am
From the COT Report, the bulls are building up long positions to finish the year bullish.
The bearish sentiment now in the market is from the Non-Commercial Traders but the difference between their long and short positions is slim.
I think I will need kuroro001 help to understand it better.
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #531,532
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:47am Jun 27, 2020 6:47am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} This is an introductory part of these ranges... And they have been unbelievably consistent from 2011 till date (10 years). More explanation will come on weekly, monthly to as far as yearly ranges.... Price behaviour will also be introduced which gives further clarity to these ranges application. In fact the combination of the two will expose future prices with high degree of accuracy except for occasional natural disaster like pandemic or brexit referendum which affected the accuracy of these ranges and behavior in the last 10 years.
Georginson,

You should start a thread on ranges as it is a fascinating subject and all your info would be easily found in one place. Thanks for sharing all your work on this!
  • #531,533
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:54am Jun 27, 2020 6:54am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} Hello Kuroro001, I want to take some time to explain how ranges work and the weaknesses too. Ranges are distances between high and low of a given time frame. Ranges help to reduce risk exposure and improve trade accuracy. Ranges work better when also integrated with price behaviour. Each currency pair has its way and pattern of movement over a given period, this pattern of movement if repeated on several occasions will now be seen as a behaviour. Let me start with weekly ranges In the last 13 weeks the weekly ranges of GBPUSD has been. I...
Thanks for explaining this. I have really learnt a lot form your posts.

Have a good weekend all.
  • #531,534
  • Jun 27, 2020 6:57am Jun 27, 2020 6:57am
Quoting Roszey
From the COT Report, the bulls are building up long positions to finish the year bullish. The bearish sentiment now in the market is from the Non-Commercial Traders but the difference between their long and short positions is slim. I think I will need kuroro001 help to understand it better. {image}
Hey mate,

I don't read the non-commercials/commercials report, but more likely the disaggregated one

Here is what i see by looking at it

Attached Image

Dealers are accumulating longs at a quick pace (aka the buy-side of the market is selling too much...)

Attached Image

Overall shorts of gbp are going all in, its never a healthy sign of the bears

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.PNG Size: 43 KB

The most "worrisome" pair is gbpjpy
Check how dealers are going long, while assets managers are going shorts all in. Now imagine what happens when they start closing their short bets...

of course, the positionning can go even more extreme, and that's where the technical part is coming into play
We need to have a view on what the market participants are doing, and how big they are positionned in the market
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #531,535
  • Edited 8:32am Jun 27, 2020 7:01am | Edited 8:32am
This is just a general comment - it is aimed at no-one in particular and not a reply to any posts that have gone before it. (I removed it from another post and I replicate it here, so as to be clear.)

It is just a comment on the number of hunches/opinions we see that are seemingly not backed up by any kind of analysis or at least it is not made clear in the post and I suspect almost universally not. Unless you have empirical evidence over a large sample size [in the market conditions you trade in]of your previous hunches/feelings/opinions of where price may go - and then actually went then that is just what it is - a hunch/feeling/opinion - not a proven edge. I am not saying that a hunch is completely devoid of value - we all have them and sometimes they 'ache' for us to act on them - maybe borne of anecdotal evidence embedded in our subconscious after so long watching the market, but it is still not a proven edge as it lacks this empirical documented evidence from which other info can be calculated in order to optimise your trading of it. It is important for traders, and traders reading this or other threads to understand the difference.

Peace
Trader with an Edge.
  • #531,536
  • Jun 27, 2020 7:26am Jun 27, 2020 7:26am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} My previous accurate calls from May till date have been derived from careful application of these ranges and price behavior which will be introduced also for more clarity on these applications. I hope this explains to some extent.... Peace.
Hi Georginson, I've enjoyed reading your analyses as it views the market from a different perspective. If money can be made from that "angle", it remains to be seen, however.

The reason for my post is the quote you mentioned above. I'm only saying this because I wouldn't like people to get misled. You claimed that from the month of May, your calls have been accurate. If my memory serves me right, from the beginning of June, when gpb/usd was around 1.24, you started calling short because of various reasons (e.g. opening price, ranges, statistics, etc.), and when it was heading higher, you kept justifying your short call with other explanations (e.g. bull trap). Anyways, the point is that price ended up at 1.28, 400 pips higher from the time you sold. Of course, this is my opinion, but I would hardly call that accurate.

Now I'm not trying to call you out here as I've made mistakes (and I'm quite confident everyone here has) and paid dearly for them. What I'm trying to get at is that "range-trading" could be very deadly (for accounts) if one relies too heavily on statistics. In fact, it could be a recipe for a blown account. Maybe if this methodology were implemented with other strategies, it could have more merit.
  • #531,537
  • Jun 27, 2020 7:53am Jun 27, 2020 7:53am
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What’s wrong with simple trade what you see . I have been here for some years now I have seen so many people come and go . While I respect what other people post I just try to keep it simple . No robots only emas and trend lines .. and it works .. you only have to look at my post weeks ago when at 2800 I posted that it was a fake move up and even posted a traders rule how to trade it .. but I don’t think many read it as they were trying to go long instead of scalping long into a sell position. As above chart only lines . Top look left we see a bunch of candles as resistance. Now price comes up fakes out and goes short . Breakout of the pennant and look where we are now .simple
  • #531,538
  • Jun 27, 2020 8:03am Jun 27, 2020 8:03am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Hey mate, I don't read the non-commercials/commercials report, but more likely the disaggregated one Here is what i see by looking at it {image} Dealers are accumulating longs at a quick pace (aka the buy-side of the market is selling too much...) {image} Overall shorts of gbp are going all in, its never a healthy sign of the bears {image} The most "worrisome" pair is gbpjpy Check how dealers are going long, while assets managers are going shorts all in. Now imagine what happens when they start closing their short bets... of course, the...
Agreed. I will be adapting to the COT report. I Am green in that area. I will have to seek your guidance on how to process COT data to get informed knowledge of where the market tends to reverse.
Thanks, Amigo.
Le$$ I$ More
  • #531,539
  • Edited 8:19am Jun 27, 2020 8:03am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Hey mate, I don't read the non-commercials/commercials report, but more likely the disaggregated one Here is what i see by looking at it {image} Dealers are accumulating longs at a quick pace (aka the buy-side of the market is selling too much...) {image} Overall shorts of gbp are going all in, its never a healthy sign of the bears {image} The most "worrisome" pair is gbpjpy Check how dealers are going long, while assets managers are going shorts all in. Now imagine what happens when they start closing their short bets... of course, the...
Nice to see you explaining this. I tried to make sense of it long time ago, just by seeing the numbers; never saw the charts; didnt dig raely deep into it eather. I asket couple of times forexlive someone to explain this to me but nobody could convince me. I decided to forget about it somewhere

Seeing this total amount of shorts for cable makes much sense to me. I think they will keep these positions for some time till fundamentally some things have to change. It doesnt look to bright a picture for the islande all together right now at all. Trade issues(they want answers again the developments, its heating up comming time the drama), covid developments are weighing heavy on the pound right now. I noticed every time these high numbers of shorts got to this particular level, price went down first for some time. Only first spike on the chart to this level not clear; I cant see how that one started on the chart

Update, Im counting 7 tops, only the 5th one produced buying when it reached this level first time(total amounts shorts for cable)

Its not that important for my game at the end as I have short anyway; I try feel for sentiment from day to day but still nice seeing this
Life is great!!
  • #531,540
  • Jun 27, 2020 8:05am Jun 27, 2020 8:05am
It's been said many times but probably bears repeating. I think it boils down to as simple as trade what you see (as elbert3 says in his post above) on the time frame (s) of interest to you - consistent with your proven edge (hopefully you have one and that it is proven over a large sample size in the market conditions you trade it in be that trending, ranging or both.) Don't be put off by others' calls/hunches/opinions and posting of profits. If you read something of interest and/or merit that may help you to develop your own edge further or indeed develop an edge - so much the better.
Trader with an Edge.
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