Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Yes it does they all have if you backtest 5 mins chart 1 example and posted as scalp target . Breaks out goes low . Then back up . If I recall I was 3 pips out on the horizontal line as I put on to show it’s possible scalp target

I posted this chart clear to see the breakout back high .. I said check the trade pattern I think

look the pattern continues. Do with that in mind we go to the bottom tl . Then back up . But one day ? Could be next week it will break the confirmation line to go long . I hope that makes sense . Regards E

I bet you sorry you asked I need NKPMG to file them for me take care

Daily range for Mon/Tues in my view.

ha ha ha,
Sorry, I just have troubles understanding your posts and what they are actually saying at times.
Meaning, what are you driving at.
Are you leaning towards bullish or bearish etc.

Have a great weekend

Breakouts will break short side low . Breakout to the long side high . A lot of trades don’t play it and when you see it breakout and come back . If. If the trend is short the stops are to tight . Hope it helps

weekly the lines above are false breakouts they need to be filled . So has the price broken the weekly tl . Or is my line wrong . Don’t forget this is on my iPhone .1. Price continues down . 2290 area and we get a bounce .. 2 where will that bounce take us ??? Fake candle and run up the outside of the tl ..3 . Continue to 2080 so bit early . Friday night notes instead of doing it Sunday ..

last one . Old tl breakout ???

Dude, like your analysis for top-bottom catch, keep posting

Sorry guys I guess I overreacted. My respect for KeepPips for his encouraging words. He is a great person to have.

My apologies to kuroro001. Shit happens..

I acknowledge everyone's ideas. So let us keep learning. In this financial market, no one is perfect. You may be winning this time but the next you may lose.

Am I am humbled.

Peace

R.

You’ve been a key player within this tread and Some dam good analysis. It takes some real guts to show your trades as you are opening yourself up to the haters.

Keep up the good work and don’t let the haters win.

Look forward to seeing your posts next week.

just checking in comfort , with breaks / confirmation 1.2334 , /retest & hold to for targets 1.2074 and 1.1985 if not 1742!. take care

Hello Kuroro001, I want to take some time to explain how ranges work and the weaknesses too.
Ranges are distances between high and low of a given time frame. Ranges help to reduce risk exposure and improve trade accuracy.

Ranges work better when also integrated with price behaviour. Each currency pair has its way and pattern of movement over a given period, this pattern of movement if repeated on several occasions will now be seen as a behaviour.

Let me start with weekly ranges
In the last 13 weeks the weekly ranges of GBPUSD has been 220-400 pips. Below are the workings:

29/03/2020 High 1.2475 - 1.2204 Low = Range 271 pips (Close 1.2269) 65 pips recovery from low
05/04/2020 High 1.2486 - 1.2164 Low = Range 322 pips (Close 1.2433) 53 pips recovery from Low
12/04/2020 High 1.2647 - 1.2406 Low = Range 241 pips (Close 1.2505) 142 pips recovery from high
19/04/2020 High 1.2499 - 1.2247 Low = Range 252 pips (Close 1.2365) 118 pips recovery from low
26/04/2020 High 1.2642 - 1.2359 Low = Range 283 pips (Close 1.2492) 150 pips recovery from High
03/05/2020 High 1.2486 - 1.2265 Low = Range 221 pips (Close 1.2407) 142 pips recovery from Low
10/05/2020 High 1.2437 - 1.2100 Low = Range 337 pips (Close 1.2102) 2 pips recovery from Low
17/05/2020 High 1.2296 - 1.2073 Low = Range 223 pips (Close 1.2166) 130 pips recovery from High
24/05/2020 High 1.2393 - 1.2163 Low = Range 230 pips (Close 1.2358) 43 pips recovery from High
31/05/2020 High 1.2730 - 1.2324 Low = Range 406 pips (Close 1.2667) 63 pips recovery from High
07/06/2020 High 1.2812 - 1.2473 Low = Range 339 pips (Close 1.2548) 75 pips recovery from Low
14/06/2020 High 1.2687 - 1.2343 Low = Range 344 pips (Close 1.2348) 5 pips recovery from Low
21/06/2020 High 1.2541 - 1.2314 Low = Range 227 pips (Close 1.2336) 22 pips recovery from Low

From the above data, the following can be deduced
* maximum weekly range in the last 13 weeks is 406 pips
* Average weekly range in the last 13 weeks is 270 pips
* Minimum weekly range in the last 13 weeks is 221 pips

The most repeated ranges are between 221 - 280 which happened 8 weeks out of 13 weeks
The second most repeated ranges are between 320 - 344 which happened 4 weeks out of 13 weeks
The least repeated range is 406 being maximum range which happened just once.

* only 2 weeks of the 13 weeks had less than 5 pips recovery from high/low, the next week that followed these weeks had at least 200 pips bounce recovery.

Application of these weekly ranges...
* do not trade until the current price has at least distance of 205 pips from the high or low of that week. For example, this just concluded week 21/06/2020 initially touched a low of 1.2333 and reached 1.2538 on Tuesday which means 205 pips distance to the low, hence a sell will be appropriate as 70% of the possible weekly range is already completed.

These ranges also show possible risk for the week, so should you wait for 205 pips range to be seen before trading, you have already avoided 70% of the possible risk in the week.

Assuming the trend wants to continue to the upside, the most it can do is 406 pips range, which will mean 1.2333 (initial weekly low) + 406 (maximum range in last 13 weeks) = 1.2739 which will mean 201 pips potential damage to your entry at 1.2538. The chances of 1.2739 happening this last week is 6% considering the fact that 406 pips range is very hard to happen.

So entry from 1.2538 most probable potential loss is the most repeated weekly distance been 270 pips range, which would have been 1.2333 + 270 = 1.2603... That means your entry at 1.2538 will have 70% chance of a potential damage of 65 pips (1.2538 - 1.2603)...

In a nutshell when you wait for 205 - 220 pips range to occur before trading against the current trend, it reduces your risk exposure and you will feed on price recovery. This system is very defensive as it reduces risk exposure and prompts accurate entries.

NOTE: if a particular week ends bearish or bullish with less than 5 pips recovery, the following week in most cases will force at least 120-200 pips recovery...

This is Elementary explanation of how ranges can be applied, there is still much more to it, which I will be explaining gradually.

My previous accurate calls from May till date have been derived from careful application of these ranges and price behavior which will be introduced also for more clarity on these applications.

I hope this explains to some extent....

Peace.

More excellent and clear analysis from Georginson, and the outline of a very sound approach to the market.

Just speculation here - I wonder whether the E-F impulse wave of the 4hr down move from 2813 will see a deeper retrace/pullback than what has occurred from the 2314 lo so far,? because;

a. The weekly candle is an inverted pinbar type that suggests upside is probable.
b. The character of this move has been a mon/tues retrace/pullback before the move resumes.
c. E-F as an impulse wave is shorter than C-D in classic elliot wave.

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great work and explanation. Well done

I am so glad I skipped friday. Now I can short EG around 9100 on monday. With an easy target of 50 pips.

Well done. Looks like i did a bad job to explain myself. hahaha.