Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I am waiting for this candle of the month if I can trust a purchase in case what I am waiting for happens.

Under your Retail Client Agreement you are not actually "Trading" with "Banks" directly. In real terms you are trading against a market maker disguised as a "ecn/stp broker." ECN to where? STP to who? Banks and Model Funds don't trade in Mini and Micro lots. What a "Standard" lot means to a Bank .v.s. what it means to a Retail Trader are two entirely different things.
Your "Broker" (Market Maker) has a Line of Credit with a Bank. They use that credit to act as the counter-party on your trades. If you start trading in a manner consistent with someone who actually knows what they are doing instead of the typical "B-Book" gambler who will eventually blow their account in short order, your "Broker" (Market Maker) has no choice but to "A-Book" your trades and net you out somewhere else (passing on the risk).

A better thing for Retail Traders to do is to completely detach from the idea of trying to figure out what banks are doing. Instead, the Retail Trader is far better off teaching themselves how to Go With The Flow of whatever the "banks" are doing. If you have the right Indicators configured correctly, you can detect (see) where the "banks" are attempting to take the market - but you can much better see this when your Indicators are working in the larger time frames. Banks are not Scalping 100s of millions or billions of dollars on a 5 minute hot tip trade. Because their size is so large, they have to build their positions over extended periods of time.
Typically, when the masses are selling, institutions are buying - building a position. When the masses are buying, typically, institutions selling - once gain building a position. At some point, that "pattern" of institutional position building will result in what you see as a market on the move as price reverses and begins moving forcefully in the opposite direction relative to most Retail "Dumb" Money (that's what they call you as they laugh their way to profits).

this is not to say your point is wrong at all, i very much agree with it, just wanted to show my view on retail.


many thanks

Joe

I'm not a fan of misinformation, I search deep into variables responsible for losses of most retail traders which is largely due to greed and erratic market structure... Beneath this market structure are market movers that dictate the direction and flow of the market... A simple clue is why do some major fundamental news come out strongly positive for a particular currency and yet the currency will become mysteriously weak?... There are more to it than what most understand, they provide retail traders with array of indicators that will fail and lag behind after successive gains and boom one will lose it all. I'm trying to keep some information away but I do hope retail traders can figure out that some things are not adding up.

One day you will see these levels if and only the indices are in the cycle that go up with your currencies. and it can be very close.

I'm doing a scalper at the moment .. but I had an annual close above this brown line, the most important for me.

I decided like this i go out of longs now,h4 my trendline crossed up and down but it stay red.I wait when it became green and enter,for a moment h4 trendline stays red.BUT i dont go short wait long only.

Bunch have liquid fatties have been chatting in secret again; risk popping out of the blue ) Fuzzy frenzy

Truth revealed.
Wonderful brother.

Interesting discussion above. The market is what the market is - it's that simple. From my experience of this industry, what stops the average retail trader ever becoming consistently and reliably profitable is their battle with the psychology of trading. Finding a technical edge is fairly simple but they never really know the edge over an extended sample of times it sets-up so they don't know for eg but not only - it's strike rate, it's av winning run, it's av losing run, it's longest of these two, and equally as crucially given these stats it's probability of a losing run of x, y or z over the same sample size so they can position accordingly and tailor their risk to the edge - ie manage risk so that the edge - or more accurately their diminished execution of it [and partly because of the lack of this knowledge and psychological pressures associated as a consequence] doesn't lead them into positions they are psychologically unprepared for.

Mark Douglas calls it the 'profit gap' ie the difference between having a winning edge in theory and being able to execute such that it does indeed win for you-consistently and reliably. An edge is simply;

A repeating circumstance or set of circumstances (ie a set-up or combination of set-ups) that suggest a greater probability of one thing happening over another, based on historical precedent. Additionally and/or alternatively; if the edge does not suggest a greater probability of one thing happening over another, then based on historical precedent, it suggests that more gain is available when it succeeds than when it fails, sufficient to realise a net gain over any given sample.


Said author Mark Douglas correctly identifies the following.

The Fundamental Truths of Trading:


1. Anything can happen.

2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge when it sets up.

4. Every moment in the market is unique.

and further;
The 7 Principles of Consistency:

1. I objectively identify my edge (s.)

2. I predefine the risk of every trade.

3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.

4. I act on my edge without reservation or hesitation.

5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.

6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.

7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.

I see this fundamental reaction to news also.
I don't trade news, so not a problem for me.
I don't think it's realistic to think the major banks around the world with their collective money, would focus on what makes up around 8% or so of forex volume (retail). This would seriously restrict the volumes they could trade wouldn't it?

I do think stops move this market, and traps are set, without a doubt, This is pretty clear as the market at times, will continue to move (grind) against all reasonable logic.

The 3 week up move of May, was a classic example, some were losing their minds as to what was going on.
The weekly chart showed the top of the range left un-touched.
I posted at the time there would be stops above the weekly tops that the market will want, to fill their positions.
This was made more dangerous by the shaven weekly bottom before the up move, so no clue was given to PA traders.

We have broken below and now retesting bottom of range.

So now bear town I think.

Back to the here and now....so today's Daily candle will very likely make the a 2nd fractal LH on daily after the pullback from the first L on that t/f.....Daily asc t/line- on tomorrow's Daily candle should come through around 2375, if not hit on remainder of today's. On 4Hr a L, LH and LL, and on 2Hr a 2nd LL after a H (above the last LH on that t/f.) Subdued 75 pip range today so far after Wed's 129. It is only 63% of the 30 day adr. Going into last day of the week tomorrow wee have travelled 60% of the 26 week awr so far this week and 83% of the 12 month amr so far this month of July....so plenty of scope in this respect.

exactly the same here trumps, I don't trade news always work around it. this is not to say I don't know what's going on but I will never jump in on when statistics get revealed or we see a big move. I watch and observe and wait for cool down.

stay safe
Joe

Simple explanation is the market has overly discounted that news. Or there is a more over-riding need to sell that currency and the people who have that conviction use the initial Bid to sell into. The Banks don't give a stuff what this group of traders is doing really, trust me. Plus the only advantage Banks have is their capital, lack of trading costs and being able to view where the buy and sell orders are. They have no more of an edge than any private trader. You would actually be quite surprised at the lack of sophistication in the decision making process of most institutional traders. It's almost embarrassing. Anyway this isn't the thread for this discussion. I just have to do an eye roll when I hear this multi decade old conspiracy about Banks.

To all less experienced traders: The next time you read in this thread or any other for that matter that for eg 'Price is 'definitely going up' or 'price is definitely going down,' ask the author this:

What was the sample size of this type of market condition and on what t/f (s) that causes you to say this and from that sample size what is the actual probability that your assertion will occur (Whether it does or not.) If they cannot answer this - then they know as much as the you and your 'opinion' is as useful as theirs. Without empirical evidence an opinion is just an opinion.

A Trading edge is not predictive. How can it be? We have no access to all market participants' trading plans, and even though the edge has set-up, every moment in the market has a very high probability to an almost certainty of being unique, comprised of different buyers/sellers trading different volumes, for different reasons/objectives than the last time the Trading Edge set-up.

The real success in this industry comes when you accept this and that you don't even know what the next 5 minutes will bring let alone over an extended period. All we have is our edge - and if we have done our homework over the time we have been using it - the empirical evidence associated with it that will allow us to determine probability and manage risk accordingly.

Off my high horse now,

Peace.

I believe MA they never lie on big TF

RSI Is still diverging all day long on the min30 but it didnt really pick up strongly while risky assets did

I have no position

Lol. Brilliant.

Hari Krishna.

Does price move to the MA or does MA move to price?

(my language, they are usefull to TP on(..))

Im waiting for these bank stress tests but likely gonna be a bit of a joke right?!

No one seemed to care upfront seeing risk

They go always forward!