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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #530,221
  • Jun 23, 2020 3:45am Jun 23, 2020 3:45am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Agreed. Unfortunately, my enjoyment comes from looking at charts all day even if I am losing! To be fair to myself I've had two consecutive months of +10% so things are looking up. Hope to be break-even at the 6 month mark.
How old are you kidda?
Don't trade what you think. Just what you see!!!
  • #530,222
  • Jun 23, 2020 3:47am Jun 23, 2020 3:47am
Stupid call than he reading the details (
Life is great!!
  • #530,223
  • Jun 23, 2020 3:48am Jun 23, 2020 3:48am
Quoting despichtt
Stupid call than he reading the details (
Bullish or Bearish today?
  • #530,224
  • Jun 23, 2020 3:51am Jun 23, 2020 3:51am
Quoting despichtt
Stupid call than he reading the details (
There had to be a bit of selling after rising from 2440, could drop further but I have 2474 as a support area....Top of the hour I might buy in again, depending on PA
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Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #530,225
  • Jun 23, 2020 3:51am Jun 23, 2020 3:51am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} How old are you kidda?
I'm 22 so not so much of a kidda haha. Bit behind of most of my peers but I've had some health problems holding me back last couple of years.
  • #530,226
  • Jun 23, 2020 3:53am Jun 23, 2020 3:53am
Please consider taking a look at my Daily Market Update.

DXY starts at 0:03,
GBP/USD starts at 09:24

I upload weekly analysis every Sunday and daily analysis from TUE to FRI.

Inserted Video
  • #530,227
  • Jun 23, 2020 3:58am Jun 23, 2020 3:58am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} There had to be a bit of selling after rising from 2440, could drop further but I have 2474 as a support area....Top of the hour I might buy in again, depending on PA {image}
I should have sticked to the chart materializing the divergence; PMI story inside wasnt bright at all. Just stupid feelings sometimes blocking the idea

2nd skrew in a row, guezz its not my day(also bought the fart after the number) ((
Life is great!!
  • #530,228
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:00am Jun 23, 2020 4:00am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Agreed, I'm risking 0.5% per trade at the moment. But then again I'm a newbie. I guess with more experience then increase your risk, gotta keep an eye on the draw-down though.
The first rule of trading is risk management and applications.
Now we also need to understand why and how to apply risk management.
Why apply risk management? Simple answer is to guide against loss due to exchange rate uncertainties as the higher your stake the highest your risk exposure if it goes against you. Now what I want to explain is how to apply risk management for better results in trading.

The first way to understand the risk is by knowing the capacity with which an exchange can move at a particular time frame, once you know the capacity the exchange rate can move, the first step of your risk management plan is already in place.

Now let me use yearly range as first example...
2017: High 1.3656 - 1.1986 Low = 1670 pips range
2018: High 1.4375 - 1.2475 Low = 1900 pips range
2019 High 1.3513 - 1.1957 Low = 1556 pips range
2020* High 1.3229 - 1.1409 Low = 1820 pips range

From the above years, the exchange rates are very different but the ranges are very similar. The ranges are the whole risk of these years.
Maximum range = 1900 pips
Average range = 1725 pips
Minimum range = 1556 pips

This current 1.2490 has 739 pips range to the high (high 1.3229 - 1.2490 Current price)
This current 1.2490 has 1081 pips range to the low (current price 1.2490 - 1.1409 Low)

This current year 2020 has already completed 94% of its capacity (risk distance) and once the risk distance is already almost completed there is not much risk to insure

Should you sell this current rate 1.2490, your projected maximum risk will be 1.3309 which is 819 pips away from the current price. (1.1409 low + 1900 pips maximum yearly range = 1.3309)

So should you stake 9% of your equity from this current 1.2490, your trade will cover risk of 1.3650 level for the whole year...

Now weekly ranges in the last 13 weeks have been 225 - 400 pips. The current 1.2490 already has distance of 160 pips away from the weekly low, which means maximum risk is 1.2733 should the low of 1.2333 remain unbroken, this means the maximum pips you can potentially lose is 240 pips which chance of occurrence is less than 20%. So staking 3.5% of your equity from 1.2490 can only result to maximum equity damage of 8% before recovery which is also very unlikely..

I will explain more on this ranges and risk management better during the weekend.

Peace
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #530,229
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:03am Jun 23, 2020 4:03am
....messy rise since yesterday's hi with a HH, L, LH,HL, H fractal swings printed on 1hr - the last H not being fractal yet but it will be a fractal swing Hi when it does print. 63.6% of 30 day adr so far today. 4hr desc t/line and that 50% fib at today's current hi. 4hr has a H, HL, and what will be a HH when it prints.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #530,230
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:03am Jun 23, 2020 4:03am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} I'm 22 so not so much of a kidda haha. Bit behind of most of my peers but I've had some health problems holding me back last couple of years.
Kidda, means nothing to do with age. It just a nice saying to call someone. Well I hope your health is better now as it’s one of the most precious gifts we take for granted. Well messed that trade up.
Don't trade what you think. Just what you see!!!
  • #530,231
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:04am Jun 23, 2020 4:04am
Quoting despichtt
{quote} I should have sticked to the chart materializing the divergence; PMI story inside wasnt bright at all. Just stupid feelings sometimes blocking the idea 2nd skrew in a row, guezz its not my day(also bought the fart after the number) ((
Yep it happens, just make the next trade a winning one

Price well supported by the 100ma
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Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #530,232
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:06am Jun 23, 2020 4:06am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} The first rule of trading is risk management and applications. Now we also need to understand why and how to apply risk management. Why apply risk management? Simple answer is to guide against loss due to exchange rate uncertainties as the higher your stake the highest your risk exposure if it goes against you. Now what I want to explain is how to apply risk management for better results in trading. The first way to understand the risk is by knowing the capacity with which an exchange can move at a particular time frame, once you know the...
Been reading your post with interest . You have put a lot of work into it .. even if !!! If .. you could ?? Be wrong !. Hats off to you sir . Regards E
  • #530,233
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:07am Jun 23, 2020 4:07am
Yeah, that is enough than 5% drop not that bad at all; could have been worse(..) Should have stayed in bed; been drinking too much. Yesterday big pop fortunately

Bye!
Life is great!!
  • #530,234
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:09am Jun 23, 2020 4:09am
Quoting avpcap
{quote} A winning trade? Maybe a typo there mate.
Cheers avpcap well spotted, yes typo should read 2508....
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #530,235
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:10am Jun 23, 2020 4:10am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} Yep it happens, just make the next trade a winning one Price well supported by the 100ma {image}
I wanted to sell after 2491 but didnt. Now feel sick for not doing so (
Life is great!!
  • #530,236
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:11am Jun 23, 2020 4:11am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Been reading your post with interest . You have put a lot of work into it .. even if !!! If .. you could ?? Be wrong !. Hats off to you sir . Regards E
Thanks mate... Nothing is certain in forex market but we all have to strive to make something out of it. Ranges also have pitfalls but the pitfalls are very rare. Since 2008 global financial crisis exchange rates have become more regulated to avoid another financial meltdown hence these principles have proven effective except for 2016 brexit referendum which is an anomaly.

I also always look out for your posts too as they have been really helpful.

Cheers.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #530,237
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:12am Jun 23, 2020 4:12am
4hr indecision bar at 1.25 resistance
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #530,238
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:13am Jun 23, 2020 4:13am
Quoting despichtt
{quote} I wanted to sell after 2491 but didnt. Now feel sick for not doing so (
I always feel sick when price heads south LOL, all those pips I never make any money off....

Next positive trade will cure the hangover....
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #530,239
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:16am Jun 23, 2020 4:16am
Easy sell; big divergence. Making some homerun..

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Life is great!!
  • #530,240
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:17am Jun 23, 2020 4:17am
Quoting avpcap
Trend line intact so far. In with a short at 1.2508. {image}
Closed for +45. Might go lower but don't want to be too greedy.
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