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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #529,701
  • Jun 21, 2020 9:47am Jun 21, 2020 9:47am
Positive: 'Britain will outline its plans to ease the coronavirus lockdown this week, health minister Matt Hancock said on Sunday, potentially relaxing the two-metre rule on social distancing, allowing many businesses to reopen in early July.' Something to look forward to. Also: Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Sunak expected to announce an emergency cut to VAT - Source TradeTheNews.com. Brexit breakthrough ahead as negotiators edge toward deal on easier extradition? Mmmmm(..)

Negative: New cases development covid in the USA dont look good at all seeing latest figures from Saturady. This will be the main thing to focus again for direction. Risk off likely continuing when covid cases published later today just as bad. Looks like a negative opening for stockindex futures allready.

Daily chart picture looking bleak just breaking this TL from March south. Might well long way to go south when risk off accalerates. Dont know any States considering tightening messures again to fight covid; would be big blow. Some ingredients for a bit of a bouce as well when risk improving for some reason.

Looking forward European session tomorrow!
Life is great!!
  • #529,702
  • Jun 21, 2020 10:00am Jun 21, 2020 10:00am
If the market hasn’t gapped up @open I’m waiting for my long entry to 1.24000
  • #529,703
  • Jun 21, 2020 10:08am Jun 21, 2020 10:08am
Quoting despichtt
Positive: 'Britain will outline its plans to ease the coronavirus lockdown this week, health minister Matt Hancock said on Sunday, potentially relaxing the two-metre rule on social distancing, allowing many businesses to reopen in early July.' Something to look forward to. Also: Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Sunak expected to announce an emergency cut to VAT - Source TradeTheNews.com. Brexit breakthrough ahead as negotiators edge toward deal on easier extradition? Mmmmm(..) Negative: New cases development covid in the USA dont look good...
may be all ranges flat till any outcome for the first wave of covid 19 pandemic ( atleast this year end) , world is trying to live with it, resuming some economic activities to near normal as one survival option!
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #529,704
  • Jun 21, 2020 10:29am Jun 21, 2020 10:29am
From the Fibo perspective, both W1 and D1 indicate that the bears are on a cruise. From W1, PA could not close above 61.8 before declining and this has exposed the yearly low of 1410, last attained in March, as a target. Equally, D1 is showing that 38.2 (2088) can be hit even tomorrow now that 61.8 has been brushed aside.

These are all probabilities. The best approach remains trading what the charts depict at any particular point in time. One thing is sure, GU will keep up with its wild up-and-down yo-yo movements, whether anybody likes it or not.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU W1 2106.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 2106C.png Size: 34 KB
  • #529,705
  • Jun 21, 2020 10:36am Jun 21, 2020 10:36am
Looks like it is going South to begin with.
Gbp-Usd.PNG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gbp-Usd.PNG Size: 71 KB
  • #529,706
  • Jun 21, 2020 10:40am Jun 21, 2020 10:40am
Quoting Bydyke
From the Fibo perspective, both W1 and D1 indicate that the bears are on a cruise. From W1, PA could not close above 61.8 before declining and this has exposed the yearly low of 1410, last attained in March, as a target. Equally, D1 is showing that 38.2 (2088) can be hit even tomorrow now that 61.8 has been brushed aside. These are all probabilities. The best approach remains trading what the charts depict at any particular point in time. One thing is sure, GU will keep up with its wild up-and-down yo-yo movements, whether anybody likes it or not....
Your first chart gave me an idea. Since we know GU's one-way friday move is a trap more often than not...so 2550-2650 first, then 2260.

Attached Image
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #529,707
  • Jun 21, 2020 10:56am Jun 21, 2020 10:56am
well, for Monday, the price can drop close to S1. 1.2300.

Then bounce from there after FF/London open.
Intraday only.
  • #529,708
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:07am Jun 21, 2020 11:07am
Quoting navk
well, for Monday, the price can drop close to S1. 1.2300. Then bounce from there after FF/London open.
Asians rarely sell the pound after a strong friday's drop. If anyone takes it down again, it will more likely be Frankfurt or early London, not Tokyo. But I might be wrong, of course.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #529,709
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:33am Jun 21, 2020 11:33am

FA

Trump's rally - not good (low turn out)

Increase in infections in US - not good at all for Cable

Hong Kong issues and China/India - not great

Need to see what Lowe is likely to say later on...Unemployment used to be a main bug bear for the RBA

Interesting article on what to expect after Friday- more bearish bia

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wh...ion-expiration

Looking at the dollar it has further to go....

Tapering of bond buying by the Fed - not good......

Structurally equities look a sell


Looking at this - why would anyone be long on risk assets

But on Friday - equity buying at the close


Will we have to see if they change their view - on Friday they were bullish into that close

Even if they want to short equities - they will still need to buy it- so looks to be long

Any longs could turn over sellers - so more move up


Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #529,710
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:38am Jun 21, 2020 11:38am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} "Increase in infections in US - not good at all for Cable" Why? "Trump's rally - not good (low turn out)" Why?
Why......because...it just is
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #529,711
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:39am Jun 21, 2020 11:39am
Dollar is a safe haven atm

Pound is a risk asset.
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #529,712
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:42am Jun 21, 2020 11:42am
Quoting SFundamental
Dollar is a safe haven atm Pound is a risk asset.
Pound is not euro...while EU might be 50/50 between euro and dollar, GU is probably 80/20 in favor of the pound, as pound is the main mover, not dollar.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #529,713
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:46am Jun 21, 2020 11:46am
Pound is tiny compared to US dollar. US dollar is King.
In normal circumstances -if there is positive news on the dollar and positive news on the pound- the Dollar wins.
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #529,714
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:48am Jun 21, 2020 11:48am
Quoting SFundamental
Pound is tiny compared to US dollar. US dollar is King
Yet there were times when USDx was going up and GU was going up aswell(or both down)...something that never happens with EU, because that is correlated with USDx at over 99%.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #529,715
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:48am Jun 21, 2020 11:48am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} Ok! It Just is! Thanks for your answer.
also
there was a solar eclipse this weekend
so that should add prediction value
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #529,716
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:58am Jun 21, 2020 11:58am
Feel free to disagree as much as you want
It would be nice if you could back it up with a reason
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #529,717
  • Jun 21, 2020 12:02pm Jun 21, 2020 12:02pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Yet there were times when USDx was going up and GU was going up aswell(or both down)...something that never happens with EU, because that is correlated with USDx at over 99%.

It does not happen often

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QX1DGZ6B/

I'm outta here anyway....
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #529,718
  • Jun 21, 2020 12:09pm Jun 21, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} It does not happen often https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QX1DGZ6B/ I'm outta here anyway....
No, not often. But the things you mentioned and are happening in the US, have no impact on the pound whatsoever.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #529,719
  • Jun 21, 2020 12:11pm Jun 21, 2020 12:11pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} No, not often. But the things you mentioned and are happening in the US, have no impact on the pound whatsoever.
There are two sides to Cable
UK and USA.
Anyway best of luck
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #529,720
  • Jun 21, 2020 12:15pm Jun 21, 2020 12:15pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} There are two sides to Cable UK and USA.
We can only wait and see...but I see GU as an easy long early tomorrow. No matter what happens anywhere...
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
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